Dagarro: We’re here to ‘save and protect lives’
(CNS): Myles Newlove, the CEO of the aviation company about to start work on the disaster and evacuations facility for its helicopter project on Cayman Brac, has told CNS that residents’ fears about the work they will be doing are entirely groundless and Daggaro is about tracking disasters, evacuations, air support, and protecting and saving lives. Newlove said that it’s not just a matter of him refuting the suspicions that the project has any government, military or intelligence connections but that it is impossible for it to have them as a result of international law.
Newlove said that residents on Cayman Brac have nothing to be concerned about regarding his company and there are no grounds at all for the rumours and allegations being made against his team.
He told CNS that one of the reasons why the project had to get approval from the Cayman Islands Government and the Governor’s Office in addition to going through the usual licensing and Development Control Board approval was because of the complexity of the technology the rescue helicopters are fitted with, which is restricted under international law. He said the aviation equipment is not “your basic tourism or high net worth owned helicopter. That type of equipment is only meant for good weather conditions.”
Newlove explained that there are a multitude of international laws and regulations that restrict and control the use of private military and security companies in the international arena. They include the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), a regime which controls the use of defense and military related technologies which the UK is a signature to, and the rules surrounding Federal Acquisition of services in the USA. This web of international rules around how private military and security related contracts work simply prevents Dagarro from engaging in the type of operations that people fear.
As an Australian citizen, Newlove added, it would be nigh on impossible for his Cayman registered company to secure any type of military contract work with the United Kingdom, never mind the United States.
In the face of the misunderstanding and misinformation about the aviation company, Newlove told CNS that Daggaro is far from the mercenary operation it is being painted in some quarters. The reality is that it will be engaged in search and rescue as well as medevac operations and is currently gearing up for what the weather experts have said will be a busy hurricane season.
“Is not just a case of ‘Myles Newlove’ refuting or denying the claims being made about this project, we cannot even do what people are implying as a matter of international law,” he told CNS, as he stressed the importance of having the public understand what Daggaro will actually be doing, as opposed to what people are fearful they might be doing without any evidence at all.
“We are here to save lives and we are busy preparing for the forthcoming hurricane season,” Newlove added.
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Category: development, Local News
What a load of absolute rubbish about saving lives etc.
This is believed to be a private, military company who are flying military grade drones over South American countries.
Inviting this company in with open-arms is shameful and dangerous.
Does anyone recall that the Cayman Islands already has this SAR and disaster response, which also answers to the UK. Two helicopters based with the Cayman Islands X-Ray 1 air operations unit. Who I seem to recall already have been to several disaster zones. While other people talk up their dubious business programs, some are already actually here and doing the job and involving Caymanians.
25/4 @ 9:41pm – Correct! But why have there been no comments from Government or Civil Aviation Authority about what/how Dagarro ops are approved/regulated in the CI? Nor HMCI, RCIPS, Coast Guard about the “benefits/assistance”, etc? Why no Government engagement with the public?? Were any election candidates questioning? Why doesn’t the public know anything except Dagarro releases?
This is more than it seems! No, I’m certainly not a Trump/Qanon conspiracy dingbat!
Wow I just scrolled thru comments.. They have repeatedly said there business is not cayman. The business is focus outside cayman when there called upon for SAR, Medical EVACUATIONS an Disasters. Two CAT5 hurricanes hit Sth America which do not have such advertised capabilities as Daggaro. Do you think they refused the help regardless of who pays for it. Stop bloody complaining. U have a island that has everything!!
If this island is hit with a disaster or anywhere else in the region who is going to complain who help them.
Yes, and the “everything” includes the peace and quiet that will inevitably be compromised by the presence of these huge military grade helicopters being flown around as part of endless training exercises. We on Grand Cayman heard the racket that one from a Royal Navy vessel made as it stood in for our police helicopter for a while. It was so loud and intrusive that I reckon it may well have been heard on the Brac, come to think of it. What utter madness. (And please get some help with spelling, my friend. It is important.)
You do understand the issue is not really about who pays for hurricane relief or SAR, right? It’s about whether they are a legit SAR and hurricane relief company – possibly the first ever – or a front for covert intelligence operations. And if they are the latter they are going to be As much use in hurricane relief as the tits on a bull.
Do a internet search you idiots and you will find many international companies providing SAR, MEDEVAC and aviation relief. Hell the entire UK SAR is privately run now. Oops you didnt know that did you…
7.11 you will be the first to complain when thing go bad. I belt you will protest “Where the UK help”. Lets complain about the noise of RAN helicopter providing safety an security to the people. I bet the kayakers didnt complain being rescued by them. Got your covid shot yet!
All i see is serial internet protestors
This is all pointless comments… im done, so continue on….
Yeah,….. I hope you ARE done with that drivel.
…and all I see are bots deployed by Daggaro to write specious nonsense in favor of this project. I don’t believe there can be more than 30 people who support it.
This man really doesn’t seem clever enough to explain or justify it without bringing yet more storms of ridicule and protest down on his head. His statements are opaque, misleading and disingenuous. Nothing he says, and nothing I have read about this venture, makes any sense. And it CERTAINLY makes no commercial sense.
The entire UK SAR is private sector – no I didn’t know that. We better let the chaps in the Royal Navy and RAF rescue helicopters know that their services aren’t needed anymore. Twat.
It is pointless. The people complaining here are absolute fools that can’t see past their own nose. Try to be a little bit worldly and understands how things happen outside of the island rock. I know that if you or a loved should someday really need this helicopters, you’ll be forever grateful. So shut the hell up!
Reality? You obviously did not go to a Brac school because you would have learned how to construct a proper sentence. Brackers are educated if they listened in school.
Firstly, their is used as in possession. You say their house. Now saying THERE is a place. As in over there.
Now have you ever heard of a vowel. Yes? A, E, I, O, U. You use the word an after a word beginning with these letters.
Keep writing Reality. We can correctly fix that grammar and spelling for you. By the way, correctly is an adverb. Adverbs describe verbs. Better luck with your writing next try. You got your point across.
Their
Looked at a restored historic homestead in West End, Cayman Brac recently. Won’t be making an offer however.
Can we also ‘save and protect’ Caymanian jobs? They are making it very onerous for Caymanians even for entry level jobs.
They are creating the jobs. There are no jobs in existence to protect!
Creating jobs for who?
You keep saying you are strategically placing yourselves to best serve the region and have many times mentioned Central America as your target market.
When you fly into Guatemala City, helicopters line the runway in both directions for thousands of feet. They have most helicopters per capita in the world. And you are strategically situating yourselves to be close to Central America? So if a Guatemalan fisherman goes lost at sea their government will pay you $15,000 per hour to find him? And it’ll take you about 3 hours to get there, 6 hours round trip, so $90,000 just in travel costs?
What happened to your crappy homemade website with screenshots as pictures and logo that looks like it was designed in fiverr? Can’t even find it on the search engines anymore.
You guys are full of crap.
CNS: The website is here.
Good comment!
Mr. Newlove is brushing aside the issue that his Cayman company could get a MILITARY contract with the UK or US. That is mostly true, but his company can get NON-MILITARY contracts.
We are delving into the world of legalism at this point.
All I know is that I personally have worked for private sector companies who support security and counter intelligence efforts in small island nations – who make deals with some of the more powerful countries (ie UK, US, France, etc).
Anyone who is computer savvy and spends some time searching can find a multitude of declassified information about this subject.
So what if they do military/private military contracting?
So what if they don’t?
You think we don’t have the right to say we don’t want it here? Well, guess what… at least as far as the PPM was concerned, we Brackers didn’t have that right, because we were never consulted.
I think this is an issue that should’ve been before the entirety of the voters of the Cayman Islands. It’s simply too big to leave to the few who stand to benefit from it.
Mumbitchi: I agree, but I haven’t seen anyone stepping forward to say anything. Is it going to be the same old crap?
We will see what our new government does, however I suspect that the ship has sailed for addressing this project; we weren’t consulted, and it was passed, slick and easy. Done deal. Bulldozing going on even though there is an appeal.
Magic 8 Ball says “Outlook not so good.”
I think it’s obvious that they are not going to be doing what they claim. I suspect it’s going to be a PMC training base. That said, so what? In terms of the money spent in the local economy by the business and their employees it’s all coming from abroad and spent in the Brac. They’re not taking jobs from anyone theyre just spending money here. It’s just about the best kind of investment every country falls over it’s set for!
Planning approved this project… Is WHY we have trust issues. Nothing personal.
Approved by the Sister Islands Planning Board at that, not the one in Grand Cayman. The Sister Islands appear to have different planning and development requirements than Grand.
Holy Toledo, Batman! Where have you been for the la$t few year$? Tho$e groups a$$ociated with planning are running wild!
Like if you’d like to see this project halted. Dislike if you think it’s a good idea
Nobody has asked :
1. Who is covering the Capital cost, and what was the origin of those funds.
2. What will be the revenue source, and how is it generated – this sort of operation does not run on hot air. If their principal reason for being there is to provide assistance in the event of disasters – natural or man made – what do they know about the future. Past history does not suggest they could stay in business for very long.
There is a broader question here which refers o medical liability .are these people carrying qualified Doctors licensed in the Cayman Islands, who are they a d who where are their licenses approved if not locally. Since this reportedly medevac operations, the people of these is.ands are entitled to know this, in addition to the questions posited by @4:30 pm. This is not the backland Mr. Dagarro, so let’s have some answers now.
Number 2 was asked many times and he keeps giving the same illogical response. Good luck on trying to get an honest answer for number 1.
Everyone wants a piece of the pie. Bottomline, if there wasn’t money to be had in this business, this company would not be here.
If don’t believe a word about security or protection or anything else.
It boils down to $$$$ plain and simple.
Absolutely right. And there are a lot of dollars in the defence business- damn sight more than there are in search and rescue and disaster relief. Ever wondered why SAR and disaster relief are conducted by governments and charities?
Welcome to the Brac Daggaro. I have spoken out in favour of your presence before in this forum as a person affiliated with black ops.
The public gossips about this or that. Fact of the matter is if, and a big if, Daggaro is aligned with clandestine operations – WHO THE HELL CARES. People like me were part of it for years and years and we blend into the community, keep a low profile and do what we do best.
I may be the only one on the Brac to give a positive comment, but I am sure that I am the only “local” that has experience in the world that you are allegedly involved in.
81
I am so glad that Daggaro came here to the Brac to engage in altruistic endeavors while spending $12 million without any hope of recovering any portion of their investment.
Oh Gee, how lucky we are. I wish everywhere could be so fortunate as to have a fairy godfather like you. You must think us simply horrid to even question your motives.
Thank you SO much PPM for approving this project in Cabinet without even a whisper to your people of what you were about to inflict upon them. I hope you all get what you deserve.
Ha ha ha ha. Fantasist.
Hey Black ops fella@9:15 we know who you are don’t be mistaken. Stand down.
Not going anywhere 752
Cayman SAS? LOL
Go back to playing your video games.
http://amalficapital.com/
Me thinks he doth protest too much.
Why all of a sudden mr Newlove has decided to be forthcoming with his Truth. Coincidentally the government has changed!
Man this guy is full of it. In one statement he says both that they aren’t up to anything but also that what they’re doing isn’t just anything and that’s why it needed so many approvals.
Read the comments please. Facts are nothing compared to ignorance, lack of education, and everyone there working for CIG. You can’t win. You need to find somewhere the intelligence factor is higher so your work won’t be viewed as black( sorry) White magic.
Facts is it? OK. Cite one – just one – private sector entity whose business is search and rescue and disaster relief. Just one.
The Brac is as near Cuba, and as far from the rest of the Caribbean for viable “search and rescue” operations, as it’s possible to get.
I suspect that at best this is a Cuba-monitoring front; and at worst, something still Cuba-related but more sinister. Either way, the Brac and CIG, in particular our new politicians, might care, for the sake of our security if nothing else, to ask some questions and get to the bottom of this before we find ourselves out of our depth in an international incident.
As a starting point, perhaps Ms O’Connor-Connelly, who has so skillfully abandoned Mr McLaughlin for Mr Panton and therefore succeeded in straddling both camps, and who also represents the Brac, could allay our misgivings? Or is she already too busy with her latest education four-year plan?
I refer to what comes out the back end of a bull , that is what he is saying !
So whom or where are the funds coming from to pay for these operations and make a profit, remember everything is based on making money and more money
Hogwash! They know exactly what their doing i will give them that! the Games continue!
They’re
If he wants to convince me, give me a couple of examples of clients he plans to work for. His statement has no content at all. Summary: Trust us.
“As an Australian citizen, Newlove added, it would be nigh on impossible for his Cayman registered company to secure any type of military contract work with the United Kingdom, never mind the United States.”
Well, being an Australian didn’t seem to be an obstacle in securing US military work when he was CEO of SHIELD Aviation, his last employer. Hell, he even boasts that SHIELD was close with the DoD and Special Operations Community. And according to his LinkedIn entry he is still the owner of Stryke Ventures, a consultancy which assists individuals, corporations and governments in securing access to key stake holders in the US military, whether its obtaining clearance or access to military commanders. To say nothing of the fact that his head of Global Operations is an ex USAF Brigadier general.
Just an innocent civilian with no military links at all, no siree. Well, if you are going to spin that line Myles suggest you due some due diligence on your online trail. No idea if you are up to something untoward on the Brac or not, but don’t treat people like idiots.
Was he asked any of the obvious practical questions? Like how he reconciles the range of Blackhawks (readily available online – 370 miles – thus effectively 180 miles out and 180 back) with his claim that they’re there for Caribbean-wide “search and rescue” operations? And how he’ll never profit, ever, from such limited aims in such a vast area? And what is the relevance of ITAR to search and rescue etc?
Oh and he really shouldn’t have the gall to give us this “gearing up for what experts tell us will be a busy hurricane season”. That’s just PR fluff; and we all know that that’s what the experts tell us at this time every year.
I’m no conspiracy theorist, but this does not ring true. At all.
I agree with Anon 11:23 am. Too much of the information we’ve been offered is NOT realistic! Some questions: Why was this operation never heard about by the Caymanian citizens until “Daggaro” mentioned their coming destruction of the old turtle crawl? Why did the Cayman politicians keep quiet about all this before the citizens ever heard about anything concerning destruction of the turtle crawl? Why did our leaders let them destroy a secluded semi-historic spot with NO action whatsoever from them. In truth, I believe they were aware of the whole thing, but had made an “agreement” and kept it secret! Am I correct? Let me ask them: Did anyone in the Cayman Islands government make a deal with outsiders and let them start their destructive operations before any information was shared with the citizens?
Hello………… are you there?
This is the Governor’s call.
As the Governor said, very rare that the UK government involves itself in giving due diligence blessing for a private company. But it did for this one. No doubt because of their humanitarian purposes.
Sounds like more of that bull hockey to me!
Note to Governor……………….. Hello. Are you there?
How many of you have worked in different industries and different jobs? Just because you worked at Fosters doesn’t mean you can’t one day work at a bank. Don’t judge this guy or anyone for a past job. Give someone the benefit of the doubt.
The range might be greater than the combat range for search and rescue.
Probably, they are incorporated in Cayman because of the tax benefits, and the excellent legal system. The CEO sold the last company he founded. It would be surprising if they were, for instance, flying survellience missions over Cuba (but maybe they will).
Performance
Maximum speed: 159 kn (183 mph, 294 km/h)
Cruise speed: 150 kn (170 mph, 280 km/h)
Never exceed speed: 193 kn (222 mph, 357 km/h)
Combat range: 320 nmi (370 mi, 590 km)
Ferry range: 1,199 nmi (1,380 mi, 2,221 km) with ESSS stub wings and external tanks[189]
Service ceiling: 19,000 ft (5,800 m)
Rate of climb: 1,315 ft/min (6.68 m/s) [191]
Disk loading: 7.19 lb/sq ft (35.1 kg/m2)
Power/mass: 0.192 shp/lb (0.316 kW/kg)
From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sikorsky_UH-60_Black_Hawk
So, you all had to destroy a beautiful area that has historic meaning to the Brac People. You could gave avoided destroying it. We will keep a close eye on you all, one slip and we will riot to remove you.
11:17 am, 99 % of Brackers never been in that Land to see it, so its not dear to them, because they never seen it to know anything about it., facts are facts.
So in your view, the area was ripe for being bulldozed, because we Brackers didn’t cherish it enough.
I hope your overlord pays you well.
That land was filled with cardboard, broken beer bottles and garbage. Heritage site by arse. Never let the truth get in the way of a good NIMBY “environmental” concern
Just like any backward, live in the bushes tribe would do. We understand and will watch as everything above your understanding happens anyway.
Yes and will the Brac population live with the noise pollution and have you thought that your land value will plummet.
This could be a huge asset in Cayman and I think we should be glad to have it. The true information could have come out earlier to avoid the rumours, but nice to now understand what they’re doing.
Note to 11:14 am: Bullshit……… TOTAL bullshit!!!
Explain to us all how this represents even an iota of a benefit to us. I still don’t know what they are doing or why. If you believe the propaganda, then good for you. Will any Brackers work for them?
About as viable a business model as Dr Shetty’s medical hotel resort.
It’s like treasure hunting. The real treasure is getting people to fund the treasure hunt.
Remind yourselves of this
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes
then consider this as told to CNS
“ As an Australian citizen, Newlove added, it would be nigh on impossible for his Cayman registered company to secure any type of military contract work with the United Kingdom, never mind the United States….”
Hmmm.
Mr Newlove founded Shield Aviation in 2008 and sold it in 2018. Shield Aviation makes unmanned surveillance aircraft – the Ares vehicle is a class III unmanned aircraft. The category takes in craft ranging from 55 pounds to 1,320 pounds, and is smaller than General Atomics’ Predator and the Global Hawk from Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC). The Ares can stay airborne for 12-15 hours, depending on payload, and requires a short runway to take off and land.
Sold after 10 years to Cubic. Cubic is the company which made the data link as well as the command and control link for the Shield Aviation aircraft. It also provides similar services for other unmanned systems.
(Source https://sdbj.com/news/2018/aug/02/asset-acquisition-gives-cubic-greater-uav-presence/)
I find Mr Newlove’s background very interesting.
See this article for background
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/arizona/investigations/2015/06/21/border-patrol-drone-program/28999735/
“ Myles Newlove is chairman and chief executive of Shield Aviation, a San Diego-based company that makes a drone called the Ares. He said there are reasons the Predator, which can fly at altitudes of up to 50,000 feet and carry large payloads, proved attractive to CBP.
“You want to track people crossing or smuggling operations, and do that undetected,” he said. “The higher you go to be acoustically undetectable, the better the optics package you require … and the bigger the package, the bigger the unmanned aerial vehicle has to be.”
Newlove said of the Ares, “we fly an optics package with similar capabilities to the one the Predator flies.” A U.S. Navy contract for the Ares specifies that it fly at up to 18,000 feet for up to 10 hours.
He said that while his company has focused on contracting with the Department of Defense, “our platform absolutely would be an extremely useful product on the border.” And, he said the cost of acquiring and operating the Ares “would be significantly less.”
Well researched ‘How Very Spooky’.
It is also worth noting that he has made a huge leap from what he told the CI Airports Authority Chair in 2019 (see item 7.2 in the minutes of 16 Sept 2019 here https://www.caymanairports.com/upimages/ckeditor/1576591682_SHARP-MX405120191213135624.pdf) and viz:“The idea is to bring in materials, assembling and testing drones.”
Also, for those seeing this as some long term benefit to the Brac, note the ability to pick up and run!
Finally, it should be noted that it was less than a year ago that the US military was able to successfully launch drones from a Blackhawk https://verticalmag.com/news/drone-launched-black-hawk/. Within a few months, they contracted with 10 companies to develop helicopter launched drones for the US Army https://verticalmag.com/news/ten-companies-to-develop-helicopter-launched-drones-for-u-s-army/
Dagarro could be looking to do work by subcontract for some of these companies. One thing we can be sure of, it isn’t going to make a living out of search and rescue; that’s bs.
Thank you.
Thanks CNS for this article, it’s good to get some clarity on the situation rather than everyone running around spouting conspiracy theories
What about the China question? No one for a second thought the surveillance was for the UK government.
I’m sure the Brac base will come in very handy during hurricane season. However…
China’s rise in the Caribbean means eyes in the skies are increasingly important to FVEY (‘Five Eyes’, the powerful, decades-long intelligence alliance between U.K, USA, Australia (hi Mr Newlove!), & New Zealand.
The USA is very jumpy about china’s activity in the Caribbean.
In a new Latin American Program report, Professor R. Evan Ellis details how China is expanding its presence in the strategically important Caribbean, through infrastructure investment, COVID-19 aid, and security sector assistance. Ellis, a professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, argues that the expanded Chinese presence in the Caribbean, known as the United States’ ‘third border,’ presents a policy challenge to the United States.
In the report, “China’s Advance in the Caribbean,” Ellis lays out China’s interests and engagement in the Caribbean, a strategic region between the southeastern United States and South America, and close to Panama Canal shipping routes. For Beijing, the Caribbean is also a “key battleground” in its efforts to isolate Taiwan, and China is actively wooing the four Caribbean countries that recognize Taipei. In these efforts to increase influence in the Caribbean, China has vastly expanded its trade with Caribbean countries: Overall trade grew from $1 billion in 2002 to $8 billion in 2019, with three-fourths of that amount representing an increase in Chinese exports. China has also made significant investments in infrastructure and energy projects and real estate. As a result, Ellis concludes that U.S. interests in the Caribbean “could be jeopardized” unless the United States deploys greater assistance and diplomatic engagement.
Source https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/chinas-advance-caribbean
See also https://gop-foreignaffairs.house.gov/china-snapshot-project-the-caribbean/
A November 8 2020 NYT article gives an overview of China’s recent strategic activity in the Caribbean and how it has unsettled the USA. (‘ China Extends Reach in the Caribbean, Unsettling the U.S.’- Kirk Semple)
Excerpts…
“China has offered Jamaica loans and expertise to build miles of new highways. Throughout the Caribbean, it has donated security equipment to military and police forces, and built a network of Chinese cultural centers. And it has dispatched large shipments of test kits, masks and ventilators to help governments respond to the pandemic.
The initiatives are part of a quiet but assertive push by China in recent years to expand its footprint and influence in the region through government grants and loans, investments by Chinese companies, and diplomatic, cultural and security efforts.
But while governments in the region have welcomed Beijing’s interest, the Trump administration has viewed China’s growing presence — and its potential to challenge Washington’s influence in the region — with concern and suspicion.
The Caribbean markets are generally small, and most of the nations there lack the sizable reserves of minerals and other raw materials that often draw Chinese attention. But the region has strategic importance as a hub for logistics, banking and commerce, analyst say, and could have great security value in a military conflict because of its proximity to the United States.
Jamaica, which has emerged as an anchor of Chinese activity in the Caribbean, has received more Chinese government loans than any other Caribbean island nation, according to the Inter-American Dialogue, which closely tracks Chinese government financing in the region.
Over the past 15 years, Beijing has lent Jamaica some $2.1 billion for building roads, bridges, a convention center and housing, according to the group. Grants have financed a children’s hospital, schools and an office building for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, among other projects, according to the Planning Institute of Jamaica.
And direct investments from Chinese firms in Jamaica poured more than $3 billion into projects like bauxite mining and sugar production, Chinese business leaders said, according to local news reports.
So yeah. I’m sure the Brac base will indeed be able to do the useful activities Mr Newlove mentions, as well as look for narcotics, human trafficking, refugees and lots of other interesting things once the drones get started.
But there is definitely more to the story.
Very interesting. If what you say is true, I do not agree with your conclusions that the Brac base makes sense. This is all the more reason why the CIG should understand what they are allowing Mr. Newlove to do and how it would geopolitically impact Cayman.
Ah so China is doing what the Americans have been doing for decades when it suits them.
At least the CIG is not on the hook to China, as far as we can tell. If a private company or VC group loses $$, who cares? A few Brackers will get employed in non-technical, unclassfied positions (any trained and certified helicopter pilots or mechanics there?) but the quality of life will go down for many from the noise pollution unless there is a stealth option for the Blackhawk.
Their deliberate obfuscation of ownership and mission, via Swiss company, and the fact that it applied as a non-Caymanian entity, with no TBL, and purported to have no Cayman-based business…while endeavouring to build a private international range landing zone for restricted hardware, outside of oversight of CBC, working on unknown missions, for unknown benefactors, not to mention, the environmental belligerence and high-handedness…might have something to do with the public’s rational suspicions. We’d all rather it be a (much needed) USSOCOM base, than a CIA rendition facility, or Eric Prince mercenary camp. Newlove’s pedestrian explanations are unconvincing.