CSU predicts ‘extremely active’ hurricane season
(CNS): Scientists from one of the world’s most respected storm forecasting institutions say that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be extremely active, with the expected transition from the current El Niño conditions to La Niña later this year. In their early forecast, Dr Philip Klotzbach, the lead forecaster at Colorado State University, and his team predict that there will be eleven hurricanes, five of them major, and 23 named storms this season due to the warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as well as the development of La Niña.
“When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic,” the team stated in a press release on Thursday.
“These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water.”
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average throughout the season.
The researchers anticipate a well above-average probability of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States and the Caribbean. The forecast comes just a few days after Accuweather also predicted a very busy season with up to a dozen hurricanes.
Hazard Management Cayman Islands Director Danielle Coleman said early seasonal forecasts are interesting but they do not significantly change the approach of the government agencies.
“Whilst we are aware that the sea surface temperatures are above average for this time of year in our region, we consistently encourage residents to prepare for hurricane season no matter what the forecast,” she said in a social media post.
“Our response infrastructure, including our emergency shelters, are ready to activate throughout the year, not just for hurricanes, and we are constantly working to build awareness and increase resilience. Once again, we strongly encourage everyone to heed the preparedness message and plan ahead.”
The Cayman Islands National Weather Service also noted the forecast on its social media pages, stating, “With this prediction, it is important to ensure that we are and remain prepared.”
The CSU forecast follows a similar one by AccuWeather, which also predicted a very busy season with up to a dozen hurricanes.
This September marks 20 years since Hurricane Ivan hit Grand Cayman as a category 4 hurricane (though many still argue it reached a category five) and devastated the island. Since then, no major hurricanes have struck the island, though Cayman Brac was badly hit in November 2008 by Hurricane Paloma.
See the CSU forecast here.
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Category: Science & Nature, Weather
The sad reality is that these stupid rubbish deniers are able to vote.!
More drama?
They say this every year, so if one happens they will be like I told you so!! Just be prepared with the usual essentials and awareness if it’s a busy year or not!
🌀Hurricane IAN lessons ☝🏼
Ian strengthened to a Category 4 storm as it made landfall west of Fort Myers, Florida, on September 28, 2022.
🛑Predicting Hurricane Ian proved especially tricky.
🛑Hurricane Ian underwent rapid intensification (‼️), a phenomenon where a hurricane gains more than 35 mph in wind speed over 24 hours. For meteorologists, this remains a difficult trait to anticipate
🛑Hurricane Ian followed a route less traveled (‼️), as it spooled up in the Caribbean and climbed north into the Gulf of Mexico before hooking east toward Florida.
🛑 Ian rapidly intensified twice (‼️) over, surging from 75 mph winds to 155 mph in 48 hours.
These are the facts. Who would down vote this comment?
And caused no impact to Cayman,so what’s the relevance?
Wow! A weather system that was unpredictable. Bore off.
My thrown dart landed on low hurricane activity this year.
Who will be correct?
Oh will you just leave us all alone with this constant state of fear rubbish.
Lol… Nobody held a gun to your head and told you to read a weather forecast. If you wanna stick your head in the sand go right ahead, some of us actually value insights into weather patterns. 😂
What kind of sensible person complains about access to information? ppl r fkn weird.
Yeah you just keep believeing everything you read, doughball!
The ever-worrisome common underlier is that no amount of credible science will influence theocratic levels of CIG ego, unaccountability, preparedness gaps, or resilience planning. Policy and strategy are static at one failing level established at some moment from history, with apologists at the ready to redirect fingers at anything other than the preceding warnings, forecasts, data points, and heavily redacted transcripts. We pay tens of millions for this.
Bury the power lines.
Oh leave us alone!
Whether you believe these projections, the important part is to be prepared. I would think that the early season Nor’Wester that tore up so much on all three islands would be a heads up. Stock up on basic needs.
Make certain you always have water.
Imagine if the barge didn’t come and you were on your own.
Stock up on things that you eat.
We should be doing this every year. Let me tell you something. If your plan is to be dependent upon government to save you and fix what has happened to you, eventually you will be wrong.
Buy a little more canned goods each week. Put away bottled water. Buy a gravity water filtration system, like Berkey. Whatever you really NEED stock up on it. Ask your pharmacy to give you several months of your meds.
Be prepared to help your neighbors. Not everyone has the resources to recover from a terrible storm. Let us all be together as we once were.
Bless.
Thank god we have a radar and HMCI.
oh never mind.
At the scale of hurricanes, satellites are used (together with aircraft sampling the storm). Radar, which provides images of current rainfall within 250 miles of Cayman, is of no value to Cayman in a hurricane.
Pull up a satellite image, and if a 150 MPH blob is near Cayman, don’t go outside to take out the garbage!
Radar is a very very valuable tool in tracking and monitoring hurricanes. It provides data that satellite cannot pickup.
The only people complain about this wouldn’t know what to do with radar data even if they had it. The rest of us are already informed by many sites like tropicaltidbits.com, Mike’s Weather Page on facebook (aka spaghettimodels.com), etc. Anyone that knows anything about monitoring tropical weather understands that the radar is largely redundant for storm alerts (and almost everything else).
Oh yeah all those websites that the insurance companies sponsor. You dolt!
They say this every year, and we have been prepared since Ivan.
Whos Ivan?
The terrible, if you were here that is.
He was Terrible.
Ivan was a traumatizing destructive hurricane.
No “WE” have not. We have become complacent. Look around you. Look at your own resources. Could you survive a month on your own goods if power and the Barge were out?
Think about it.
But the fact is they don’t say this every year and you saying that they do just aims to discredit people that are probably magnitudes more intelligent with infinite more expertise than you.
For what? What do you achieve with ur stupid trolling? Thumbs up from other idiots good for ur ego?
If you don’t have anything intelligent to say ffs just stfu and stop contributing to the unnecessary noise.
For real. The scientists and meterorologists heavliy analyze globally recognized data to create these forecasts. NOAA will release theirs soon and consensus is trending towards a season much like 2020.
Ignore the trolls. Prepare accordingly.
Just like the 3% Covid death projections by the scientists?
Figures don’t lie. Liars figure.
The 2020 hurricane season prediction was not on the level of what is being predicted this year. This has got to be the highest in the past 35-40 years.
They literally say this every year as if we are suppose to panic. We live in the Caribbean and don’t need anyone to tell us this. There has not been a huge hurricane since Ivan. You obviously don’t watch the news, or possibly haven’t been here long enough to stop worrying. We will be fine.
I am a 50 year old caymanian you presumptuous dunce. You can do a simple google and find that this is not the same forecast as last year but you won’t because idiots gon idiot and say idiotic shit.
Name calling – great way to develop your argument. 10.24 is making the same observations as everyone else… each year we get told it’s over-active, super-charged etc etc and it simply isn’t. It’s fear mongering and people are sick of it. Give us a forecast without the hyperole and we can be responsible for our preparations.
It’s a pity we do not have a “spare uninhabited island” somewhere out there that we could ship these stupid deniers to.
Yeah, and another one for all the sheep.