NOAA confirms uncertainty of 2023 storm season

(CNS): Last week, forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center called for a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year, though their forecast is as uncertain as other long-range reviews for the forthcoming season, which starts this week. Predicting a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season, the weather experts said competing factors that suppress and fuel storms were also driving the overall forecast.

NOAA is forecasting up to 17 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher and as many as nine becoming hurricanes with at least 74 mph winds. The scientists also said there could be as many as four major hurricanes reaching category 3 or higher, which means winds in excess of 111mph.

After three hurricane seasons with La Niña present, the likely development of the opposite El Niño this summer could suppress storms in the Atlantic. But the potential influence on storm development could also be offset because of local conditions in the tropical Atlantic Basin, where sea temperature is hitting record highs.

The potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, meeting a sizzling Caribbean Sea and creating more energy to fuel storm development could entirely cancel out what some scientists say will, in any event, be be a weak El Niño.

“With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, PhD. “To that end, this year we are operationalizing a new hurricane forecast model and extending the tropical cyclone outlook graphic from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for storms.”

NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements and expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20%. This increase in computing capability will enable it to improve and run more complex forecast models, including significant model upgrades this hurricane season, officials said in a release and during a press conference Thursday.

“Thanks to the Commerce Department and NOAA’s critical investments this year in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to deliver even more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo.