About 1,000 people could carry virus
(CNS): The rate of transmission of the coronavirus in the Cayman Islands after around 20% of the population has been tested has led officials to estimate that there are almost 1,000 people carrying COVID-19 that are largely unaware they have it. At Friday’s press briefing, Chief Medical Officer Dr John Lee revealed four more positive cases from a batch of 694 results, three of which were community transmissions picked up by the test screening programme.
The fourth sample came from a person who had contact with another positive individual and all of them are asymptomatic. Just one person from the group of 70 known active cases is currently showing any symptoms and the hospital remains free of any COVID patients.
Cayman has now tested 13,947 people, of whom 164 tested positive, which equates to an estimated infection rate of around 1.3-1.5%. Premier Alden McLaughlin said that this means more than 975 people out in the community are likely to be carrying the virus.
Commenting on the “good results” and the positive way things were going with regard to containing the virus, the premier expressed concern that the results could be too encouraging, which might increase the pressure to lift more restrictions before the time is right.
But he said that with the increased testing, the estimated figures on how many people may be positive were increasingly accurate and the infection rate was a “sobering statistic” because it meant that there might be as many as 1,000 people with active virus in their bodies that could be spreading COVID-19 in the community.
McLaughlin stressed that, more than ever, there is a need for the community to follow social distancing protocols, especially because this weekend people will be able to dine outside with a small group of friends.
Nevertheless, the premier was optimistic because, he said, the public had helped to ensure that the virus did not spread too much by following the government’s curfews. McLaughlin noted that Cayman was the most successful country in the world now for managing this pandemic as a result of the advantages given by its size.
“Let us continue to do what we know is working and not get too far ahead of ourselves,” he said.
McLaughlin worried that some people believe now that even if they get the virus it won’t “do us too badly if we get it” its unlikely that they will get it all as he warned against such complacency.
“But there are almost a 1,000 people out there,” he warned, maintaining that, after two and a half months of predicting, this estimate was pretty accurate.
However, from Sunday more restrictions will be eased, including the extension of the nighttime curfew on Grand Cayman to 10pm. The A-Z restriction will be lifted from the beach and people will be able to exercise for two hours on any day with friends, allowing people to meet up in groups of six. Restaurants will also be allowed to serve food to diners at outside tables only, with up to six people at a table up until 9pm.
For full details of what is now allowed under the soft curfew visit the CIG coronavirus website.
See Friday’s COVID-19 briefing on CIGTV below:
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Category: Health, Medical Health
Why can’t the government hire a specialist in the field of virology who actually knows what he is doing and can advise the government appropriately? Instead, we get a team from Britain concerned with logistics and policing which doesn’t help us very much in the way we are testing and ultimately how safe it is to open up the country domestically and ultimately our borders.
CNS: It has been said on numerous occasions that the local health authorities are taking advice from Public Health England, which does have experts in this field. People can argue about how well that advice is working but hiring an epidemiologist would probably not make much, if any, difference.
I’m not sure that feet on the ground wouldn’t give you more of an advantage over taking advice from an ocean away, respectfully.
Particularly from disinterested people who think we’re nothing more than a bunch of mulattoes half an English constituency in size 5,000 miles away, when we’re actually a household name, top travel destination, global financial centre, etc. and we need more than their spare efforts.
Why? So we can hear the opinion of another “expert”? The experts have been wrong about an awful lot the past 4 months. They should offer nothing more than humble tips at this point.
You are better off doing your own research taking into account a variety of scientific studies and drawing your own conclusions.
It’s embarrassing how the experts so confidently made pronouncements only to be proven wrong time and time again.
But the anonymous experts commenting here know the real truth.
And exactly how well is England doing? How can anyone defend their Covid failure?
Global travel hub for half the planet, 3-5 million Brits out the country at any one time and one of the fattest, least healthy populations anywhere; the UKs performance was all but inevitable.
You can look at a website, pick any of them that tells you the numbers worldwide of coronavirus cases and then it tells you the deaths. Coronavirus cases are growing exponentially but the deaths or not….. cool. Let’s move on.
Move on while cases and deathin Florida and Texas are still going up dramatically? Our links to those 2 places here are too close. Look at the stats there for the last month and I suggest you reconsider your position.
Maybe it’s because more hospital capacity has been added and we’re learning how to manage the disease as time goes along.
Hypocrisy at its best. The Governor is bragging on Facebook about persons soon to return to Cayman from the U.K. At the same time, our government has refused / ignored others in the US and a Canada. Yet the deaths per hundred thousand in is as follows: UK 59.3, US 32.5 and Canada 20.5. Questions. 1) Why are we allowing those in from England and not the US and Canada? How can we be so harshly locked down yet open the worst bridge possible for us?
Problem is Florida and Texas for us. Not good there as they opened up too early and now they are paying the price for stupidity.
Really? Florida is 12 per hundred thousand. Texas 6. Let me repeat. The place we are shipping people in from is 59.3. There is a greater chance of us catching the virus from someone flying in on the BA flight going to Turks, BVI and the Bahamas than it is for us to get it from CAYMANIAN flying in from Miami or Texas! Make some effort to understand the situation we are in. That way you won’t be hoodwink by our self praising government.
Not only is the plane to Cayman, but other islands well. So we, as a people, are taking on even greater risk! So much for isolation.
Wow people are actually infected by a 7th generation Caronavirus and the public is well on its way to herd immunity. We’ve beensaying this all along, too bad the CI Government’s leadership can’t think for themselves!
Too bad you’re wrong.
Sorry, Mac Mac, but the government ONLY thinks for themselves. The problem is that they only think about “What’s in it for me”!
O. Pinyurize, I think you missed my point, the CI government is obviously taking recommendations from the UK, who intern took recommendations from the now disgraced UK scientist, Neil Ferguson, whose “models”, in early March, led to the US and UK locking down their economies and by default Cayman.
So this what I meant when I say they cant think for themselves, that would go against common sense at this point!
So what we have now is a continuation of their policy that has now been proven wrong to justify their blunders , thank god people are woke and see right through the BS.
#fakevirus
#genuineidiot
#trumpsyourdaddy
#bestpresidentever
Not helping the cause. I don’t think we should be going to extremes in cayman any longer but it’s still deadly.
Alden done Mats in Year 11 bobo. Him lawyer not Statsman.
What
I’ll be your stats man. Got some numbers you need run?
When the government website reports positive test results as “Confirmed Cases” we are lost:
https://www.exploregov.ky/coronavirus-statistics
Confirmed (verb): state with assurance that a report or fact is true.
It is shocking that there is a complete absence of validation procedures, which is critically important at this stage. I say this because while the PCR test is highly effective at identifying patients when there is a high likelihood that the virus is prevalent in the community, the false positive rate documented by a number of studies will result in a false positive rate of 1-2 percent when the actual community infection rate is minimal.
What we are seeing now is statistically indistinguishable from the false positive error rate of the PCR test.
We deserve better.
If that is true it would explain why all the positives here are asymptomatic.
Govt must have used the same mathematical technique to calculate how many Caymanians were reliant on tourism industry..😉
We seem to feed on fear. The radio has been playing an add, “do not use cash, the virus can live on it for a MINIMUM of 10 days”.
It’s sponsored by BAF and the Rooster, you would think of would be from a bank as they are the ones that extort a percentage on debit transactions (illegal practice in the rest of the world).
They are wrong. Coronavirus has lipid shell that is easily broken by elements outside a body and regular soap.
Norovirus (cruise ships ) has strong bonded protein shell that lives long on surfaces even after it was “sanitized” ,hard to kill even with harsh chemicals.
I’m not worried about cash.
Even Covid couldn’t live on my money..!
Don’t be sure that if many persons have already been exposed to coronavirus and have been asymptomatic, or even symptomatic and recovered, that it means and automatic “all clear” for them or the public at large. Remember, scientists still don’t know if having had covid19 builds-up immunity, so for the time being, consider that people could catch it twice.
Yeah, we should just stay locked down for a few more years. Or maybe forever, it’s looking like the virus will be with us forever, so….z
It’s called Survival of the Fittest. It works fine for everyone….. if they are still alive.
Exactly, there are still many unknowns with this Covid-19 virus.
Read 1:13am comment. This is all you can get at this point. Even they, The Mayo Clinic with their software platform to analyze, not answering the important question: are people with long term shedding and negative/positive flipping remain infectious to other people. Not sure why they didn’t extend the study to get answers.
Stop trying to build fear!
The fact is the more you test the more you find and another fact is Cayman’s claim to fame of being #4 in testing helps to show the mortality rate is so much lower than the government lead us to believe!
We have destroyed so much now and we are all living with restrictions while the governments own testing is proving this virus is not the mass killer or a 30% death rate but some where around 0.1% to 0.4%.
Wake up people with social distancing in place and Covid pre screening at before a flight we could be open at least at 50%
Alden said “But he said that with the increased testing, the estimated figures on how many people may be positive were increasingly accurate and the infection rate was a “sobering statistic” because it meant that there might be as many as 1,000 people with active virus in their bodies that could be spreading COVID-19 in the community.”
Rubbish – he is totally wrong based on my understanding.
The cumulative amount of positive tests is 164, yes ok. But that is since day 1 of testing. Its cumulative, not the current 7 day trailing number. You cannot extrapolate the total cumulative number to say as many as 1,000 people have active virus in their bodies. What about all the people who have either recovered (be they asymptomatic or actually had symptons of any kind), and have developed of antibodies – they are not carrying active virus and are not infectious. Even some positive test will be just shedding events.
Totally unneccessary fear mongering due to misunderstanding the topic. You would think that after all this time Alden would be more on top of this.
But he is on top of something, the fact he even thinks as follows: “McLaughlin noted that Cayman was the most successful country in the world now for managing this pandemic as a result of the advantages given by its size.” means his ego is getting in the way – as ever.
I’m not a scientist, let alone a virologist or working in a relevant medical field, so am happy to be further educated if the above is incorrect or inaccurate. but subject to that:
Open the damn island up.
And fix the damn dump.
The list is long.
YES SAH !!!I said long ago island should be Opened up.
Let’s take a vote of what is more dangerous for Cayman. Covid-19 or Alden’s ego?
Add your idiocy to the ballot and I will vote.
We are fortunate to be protected from Alden’s ego by his trepidation!
“Based on your understanding”
COVID-19 Updates, June 4,2020
Mayo Clinic Data on Long-Term Shedding, Antibodies, and Positive/Negative Flipping
The Mayo Clinic has an exclusive partnership with nference, Inc., a company with a software platform to analyze and synthesize biomedical data. Together, they released a preprint* today quantifying how long COVID-19 patients shed the virus after they are tested, and quantifying how many patients flip back and forth between positive and negative tests.
Just under 75,000 patients at Mayo Clinic hospitals in Minnesota, Arizona, and Florida were tested for COVID-19, with just over 12,000 tested multiple times and just under 12,000 tested two or three times each. There were 123 people tested four times, 70 tested five times, 48 people tested six times, and smaller numbers tested anywhere between seven and sixteen times.
Just over 2,200 tested positive for COVID-19 at least once, of whom 39% had at least two tests and 17% tested positive at least twice.
They took the distance between the first and last positive test as the lower bound of the infection time, and the distance between the first positive test and the second of two consecutive negative tests (provided the person didn’t flip positive after that) to represent the upper bound.
The mean lower bound was 18.6 days and the mean higher bound was 21.2 days. In other words, on average, people remained positive for between 18.6 and 21.2 days after their first positive test.
However, the variation was enormous.
Of 379 patients who had two positive tests, 14% remained positive for at least four weeks after the first test, which they defined as “long-term shedders.” Most had a lower bound below 30 days and an upper bound below 35 days, but there were handfuls of people who had lower and upper bounds above that, with two patients having positive tests 64 days apart and one patient going 61 days before their second negative test.
In other words, on average, people stay infected for about 20 days after their first positive test, but a sizable chunk of people remain infected for a full month, and a small number remain infected for up to two months.
Unfortunately, this study has nothing to say about whether these people remain infectious to other people, but continuing to test positive does imply that they remain infected themselves and implies that they might be infectious to other people.
Shockingly, there was nothing in the Mayo Clinic’s database that could distinguish the characteristics of long-term shedders from average shedders. Hospitalized patients made up roughly 20% of each category. Health care workers were no more likely to be in one group or the other.
They extracted 15,000 “clinical features” from the electronic health records, and narrowed this down to 269 features that occurred in at least ten percent of their patient population. These included, but were not limited to, diagnosis, diseases, medications, vaccinations, medical procedures, vital signs, lab tests, and demographics. None of them distinguished between long-term shedders and average shedders.
Then they looked at when patients had their first positive IgG antibody test. IgG antibodies typically peak later than IgM antibodies, and are expected to be present after peak viral load and generally once the virus is no longer detected. Since they most likely developed antibodies at some time before being tested, they designated this as the upper bound of the time to develop IgG antibodies. The mean was 38.1 days after the first positive COVID-19 test, but there were a few patients each who developed IgG antibodies within 10-15 days or 15-20 days, and there were over 20 patients who took more than 40 days, including a few who took between 55 and 75 days. Seven patients developed antibodies while still testing positive for COVID-19.
This shows that the presence of IgG antibodies itself does not rule out continuing presence of virus, but also shows that in most cases people test positive for IgG antibodies only after the virus is gone.
Finally, they looked at the number of switches between positive and negative status. 1608 didn’t switch, meaning they were never tested and confirmed to be negative. 523 only switched once, meaning they were positive, then they were negative, and that was it. However, 108 people switched more than once, meaning they went through at least one cycle of testing negative and then testing positive again. 72 of these had three switches, 3 had four switches, 19 had five switches, 1 each had six or seven switches, and 1 patient had nine switches.
This is a significant number of people oscillating between positive and negative status.
Most likely, this represents a single infection, where the amount of viral RNA in sputum fell below the detection limit without the infection being eliminated, and then crept back up temporarily. While it’s not clear whether they are still infectious during such oscillations, it underscores the desirability of having two consecutive negative tests before assuming one is completely free of the infection.
The Bottom Line
People appear to remain infected until an average of 20 days after their first positive test, with a substantial number of people remaining infected for a full month and a small number of people remaining infected for two months. There is nothing about someone’s health status or the severity of disease that can distinguish between whether one remains infected for an average period of time or longer. It makes sense to take precautions to protect vulnerable people from catching the disease from you for two months after a positive test, unless one has two consecutive negative tests to confirm the virus is gone. At a minimum, volunteer to abstain from spending time in close contact with elderly people, people on immunosuppressants (for example, people who have had organ transplants), and people with other known preexisting conditions that put them at high risk of a severe case.
IgG antibodies suggest one is likely to no longer be infected, but they by no means rule this out.
To what degree being infected means one is infectious toward other people needs more research, but for now it is prudent to assume that one could be infectious toward others if one is infected. For someone who has tested positive and does not have two consecutive negative tests, the above data are the best rule of thumb to follow for the time being.
*Footnotes
* The term “preprint” is often used in these updates. Preprints are studies destined for peer-reviewed journals that have yet to be peer-reviewed. Because COVID-19 is such a rapidly evolving disease and peer-review takes so long, most of the information circulating about the disease comes from preprints.a
Nothing published in preprint* form , however A Few Interesting COVID-19 studies from today, June 5,2020
One paper suggested that tocilizumab, an inhibitor of interleukin-6 (IL-6), reduces mortality from COVID-19. Whether patients received it, after some basic inclusion criteria, was left to the judgment of the physician, and 77 who received it were compared to 94 who did not. The study wasn’t randomized, so it doesn’t give us clear evidence of cause-and-effect. Nevertheless, the IL-6 blocker looks promising. Admission to the ICU was over 60% lower in those who received tocilizumab, 10.3% vs 27.6%, and the number requiring ventilation was 0% instead of 13.8%. It previously covered how IL-6 predicted the need for ventilation with stunning accuracy, so it is quite interesting that the rate of needing ventilation was zero on those receiving the IL-6 blocker.
A small study from Singapore suggested vitamin D, magnesium, and vitamin B12 in combination are helpful for COVID-19. This also was not randomized and does not give clear evidence of cause-and-effect. They started treating patients on April 6 with 1000 IU vitamin D, 150 mg magnesium, and 500 mcg B12. Patients receiving this combination had an 81% lower risk of initiating oxygen therapy (17.6% vs. 61.5%). It appears that the controls were those between January 15 and April 5 who preceded the policy of giving the combination. I don’t put much stock in this given that the viral genomics could have shifted over that time, sunshine is greater, weather is different, and so on. However, it is about as promising as the tocilizumab study, which also was not randomized, and it makes the nutrient combination look almost as powerful as the drug.
A German autopsy study suggested that the virus invades neurons within the nose, and uses them as an entryway into the brain. It previously covered in vitro evidence suggesting the virus infected the neurons within the nose. This autopsy study confirms and expands that. 14% of the subjects had blood clots that caused infarctions within the brain, further confirming the importance of blood clotting in this disease. Infection of the central nervous system could explain why loss of taste occurs alongside loss of smell, something harder to explain if only the neurons of the nose get infected (though not impossible to explain, since smell defects could be subjectively mistaken as taste defects).
An in vitro paper found that zinc finger antiviral protein (ZAP), which is stimulated by interferon and dependent on zinc, strongly suppresses replication of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. This is one more mechanism by which zinc could be preventative, something that has been already covered.
Well………….. Now we know.
The drug “Levilimab”, created to treat complications of COVID-19, was originally intended to be used for rheumatoid arthritis in Russia.
Tocilizumab, Common brands: Actemra
Immunosuppressive drug
It can treat moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis.
So it looks like doctors started using immunosuppressive drug for RA to treat C19
I believe they are also trying ibuprofen for covid
I’m trying alcohol, working well so far.
What purpose hard curfew serves at this point ?
Authority and control… and because by their own admission, the police force and commissioner are not able to do their job (despite massive resources and personnel relative to the population)
If I wasn’t 100% certain my personal details would be leaked (jeopardizing my permanent residency application) I would have filled a civil rights complaint with the CI HRC on this particular point – the law cited under the hard curfew orders doesn’t permit what the Governor and Police Commissioner have done.
1:50 It’s people like you that don’t need to be in Cayman.
What, people who stand up for their rights and dare to contradict your elected politicians? Truly an electorate gets the politicians they deserve.
What exactly do you mean by this statement?
This has always been about having control and oppressing the people. Alden admitted as much yesterday, play back the press conference.
Make the po po jobs easier
Crime s down 60% sounds like a great thing to me.
Where do you want to go after 10 pm at night?
Please Stop!
Just stop all of this nonsense. There must be a lease one statistician and infectious disease specialist we can hire on a consulting basis to help CIG understand what is going on.
At the moment we have two possibilities:
1. CIG including Dr. Lee actually believe what they are telling us. This is frightening as they clearly how minimal understanding on statistical sampling, the characteristics of the virus or I would argue much of anything. Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics is likely losing their mind listening to Alden apply a cumulative statistic from a non-random sample across a population level that is grossly overstated. People do in fact recover from Covid-19 which makes their figure incorrect. There are a tonne of other issues with the “logic” being put forward as well.
2. CIG is using the response to Covid-19 to pursue another agenda.
I prefer not to put on my tinfoil hat and speculate about #2 so I will go with #1 based on CIG lacking understanding of the issues and failing to involve appropriate outside assistance.
In any event this utter nonsense needs to stop before the unnecessary damage they are causing to people’s lives becomes irreversible.
You may as well put on your tin foil hat and join the rest of us supposedly crazy people because at this point listening to how the govt does their statistics now explains a lot about their budget and everything else. We are in the twilight zone.
It’s # 2. Dr Lee is doing his job and is telling it like it is from his perspective. Like any advisor he has a bias and government are not filtering anything here as they should be.
Since the beginning of this thing they have continued to portray the “facts” to support their narrative. For whatever reason Alden wants to be seen as the saviour of Cayman and this is what they continue to present. “It’s us vs. all those nasty lawyers….. It’s us vs. anyone who thinks money is more important than life…. It’s us vs. anyone who wants to lift the restrictions too quickly.” Next up it will be us vs. anyone who wants to open the border on 1st September.
There is no logic or scientific approach being applied by government. We now know the virus is a lot less dangerous than they originally thought and this is borne out by the number of asymptomatic people we have had and the lack of people in the hospital. Rather than acknowledge this they continue to behave as if the virus will destroy us. It won’t but they are sticking to their narrative. They are incapable of change unless pushed very hard by a broad base of people. The private sector needs to come together to start talking about the economic damage which will lead to a negative impact on the social fabric here. That is the only thing that will move the needle.
This makes no sense. If there really are 1,000 people spreading the virus in our community and we reopen the bars and restaurants and shops we will have 10,000 cases within a month.
Fingers crossed that these are false positives. That seems likely since nowhere else has this virus been 98.6% asymptomatic which is what they are claiming here.
Agree to a point. We’ve got to get the economy rolling again, as there are too many people out of work. But, it is becoming clear that the disease is spread through close personal contact, and it doesn’t do well outside.
So, I don’t see a problem with the opening of outdoor restaurants and socially distant gatherings.
The danger is in indoor, closed off environments. Sadly this means keeping schools and of course offices closed, but offices seem least economically affected by this. They are working from home fine.
While I like Dr. Lee and think he has done a great job , there is a problem with the analysis of these supposed statistics Alden and his panel continually force on us . There is always a caveat , regardless of whether the news is good/ bad or the statistics are favorable or non-favorable . Their percentage figures need to be based on more valid criteria & data.
Right now its like the paper hand towel packaging that reads ” 12 = equals 15 ” .
Wait until Tony figures him out.
I hope that Alden and the good doctor were gracious enough to quote me when they came up with estimate. I posted the 1.5% figure and extrapolation to the population in the comments on this article almost 2 weeks ago.
https://caymannewsservice.com/2020/05/screening-picks-up-more-positive-samples/
What I also pointed out – which McLaughlin and Lee have failed to – is that if 1,000 people have the virus and we have zero hospitalisations and zero deaths directly attributable to covid then the curfews, fines, preaching, job losses, airport closures, ruined businesses, loss of education for our children, “stay home Cayman” in 50 different languages, government isolation facilities, police road blocks, ID checks to go to the beach or to buy a gallon of milk, entire families working from home, threats to individuals in the media, mad scrambles to get home before 7pm and helicopters swooping 200 feet overhead to check for compliance have been the single largest example of unjustified overreach in this island’s history. It’s outrageous. It was clear weeks ago that covid was of virtually zero risk to the majority of the population. Now the numbers bear it out. 1,000 people don’t even know they have it. That’s what all of the above was put in place for. And you’ll probably still end up getting it anyway.
James Austin Smith – next time you’re in a bar make yourself known. I doubt you’ll ever have to pay for a beer again. On behalf of everyone who knows how to use a calculator, thank you.
Pastor Alfredo
What a mess. We know more now to say we aren’t being affected like the doom and gloom they said was upon us. Way to go in the beginning but let’s move the f on now. We need our kids to go to school and play groups so we can return to work as well.
These men on the panel have done nothing to address the women of the nation who are doing triple duty with the same pay going in and out each month. We cant continue this way.
Thank you sooo much for expressing this. Both my husband and I work in the same field. Both of us are now working from home. But guess who is on childcare duty? Guess who is on clean up duty? Guess who is on every duty? Women are tired !!! We need childcare assistance released now. Be that schools, camps and helpers !!! All the men on the panel absolutely gave not bit of care to women situation.
Would you prefer a dead or permanently disabled child?
True that!!! We need a protest!
Let’s burn our bras!
And go topless!
That’s between you and your husband! Tell him to pull his weight.
Is this the 1940s where men do not pitch in? Why are you having children with a man who refuses to contribute? That being said, you are making valid societal points even if unintentionally…. men should be contributing equally, I am really sad that is not the case here. Men of Cayman… get with the times it’s 2020, help your women out, if you don’t cook then clean, that’s my job.
No pay cuts in government equals no Covid19 progress for Cayman.
Even more disturbing to me than the creative math and science that led to the “1,000 carriers” conclusion is the fact that there are many hundreds of Caymanians and PR holders who want to come home but can’t. Not enough is being done to bring people home, especially from the US. If Government is going to insist on quarantine, then get on with making enough space. You can’t criticize Jamaica, Nicaragua and others for not taking their citizens in when your policies are functionally doing the same thing.
Thank you.
It’s a complete disgrace. The Governor stated they have about 700 people waiting to come back home. They have 4 flights to Miami this month and not one of them is bringing back anyone. The very limited quarantine resources are being kept open for the Governor’s BA airbridge.
The government are not able to handle this level of operation. They need to allow people to quarantine in their own homes as Bermuda is now doing. There is very little creative thinking going on about how this might happen.
I seriously object to your adding the word “creative”!
I have a reservation at the supermarket of my choosing on the day and time I choose as making a reservation with a restaurant. Jail or fine me to buy, cook and eat my food without your damn reservation!
Oh dear Premier…. We will be running out to restaurants after making our reservations… Look forward to seeing who has the money and will be sitting in their reserved seats.
Who had money, still has money, barely affected by this pandemic. And who was scraping by before is now in dire trouble but the govt doesnt give a $hit. All this did was widen the gap between the “haves” and “have nots” and that was clear by the mass car washing services and daily food deliveries in certain neighborhoods.
So your solution is to prevent those “haves” from spending their money? Bizarre.
Hey Mr Premier, don’t forget for each MLA to make reservations for each citizen of these Islands and provide masks at the table bcos lots have received shit from Government!
Hey, everyone can go out every day to beaches bars and restaurants (reservation) no letter days but buy your food from supermarkets and cook it, only on your letter day! What elitist crap again is that ?
It’s elitist to try and keep many low wage businesses going and people paid? Who knew?
Not random sample; cumulative numbers; invalid to extrapolate to whole population. GCSE maths fail.
I think it’s just like the flu. No need to lock down the economy and churches over a bug. The flu always comes and goes every year. There is little you can do to stop a flu virus from spreading. All people need is education. Let everyone deal with the virus themselves. It looks like FEAR IS THE REAL KILLER.
Omg, so many people have just ignored the quarantine. I personally know dozens of people who have not observed it. People are not meant to live in isolation. It is not a long term solution.
So, let’s actually look at how we can move forward and live with this virus. A vaccine may never happen, I hope it does, but a vaccine is no plan.
The vaccine will probably be deadlier than the virus!
Let me guess – Bill Gates has it out for us?
Oxford COVID19 vaccine trail fails to spread of virus in monkeys, but dont expect the see this story in MAINSTREAM media.
Guess whose funding this Oxford trail and other vaccine research around the globe?
Guess whose home based COVID19 testing kits were stop recently in Seattle by the FDA?
Don’t be fooled, scientists have never successfully developed and tested a vaccine for a Caronavirus, COVID19 is a 7th generation Caronavirus virus around since the 1970’s.
35 years on and still no vaccine for the HIV, but their going develop one for a cold virus, enjoy the vaccine when it comes to Cayman!
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/potential-oxford-vaccine-fails-to-prevent-virus-spread-in-monkeys/article31617852.ece
Weren’t you the one going on about herd immunity? If there can’t be a vaccine, there can’t be herd immunity. There’s no herd immunity for the cold virus and in 35 years and there’s no herd immunity for HIV.
Hi people dont contract the HIV through coming in contact with people, herd immunity can always achieved without vaccines, if this wasn’t the case the world’s population would have already been wiped out from numerous plagues. Do some research before putting out misleading information.
Let’s have a debate, but first quit with the anonymous post.
So true! And many of the worst offenders are the very people we are destroying our economy to protect. I try and talk sense to my 80 year old mother, but I might as well talk to a wall.
Yep well done all the idiots running around at the start of the virus. 1000 plus probably have virus, watch whT happens this time in two or three weeks, don’t say I didn’t keep going on and on about it.
Our Government’s decisions early on not to repatriate persons of low economic stature using repatriation fees collected is almost certainly responsible for the continued presence of the virus locally. These persons have always been living hand to mouth. Our Government knew that the writing was on the wall from at the very least late February. Many persons could have been repatriated from that time until mid March. Instead greed won out. And now all of us have paid a terrible price, so that a few could benefit.
Probably far more than 1000!
You wait for the antibodies test, this will show that upto 60% to 70% of the population was already immune to the 7th generation Caronavirus.
http://chng.it/s9SmFWTZDZ
Sign this for the kids!
Dunces
Just stop asking stupid questions and have them play with their friends like everyone else is doing.
Bigger problem is that as of today, over 20,000 news cases of coronavirus are identified every day in America. Until America gets its health house in order we are limited in how far we can open to America for tourism.
The big concern for us in the Cayman Islands is seeing the coronavirus numbers drop in Florida and Texas. As of today, the numbers are still going up there every day.
How many are catching the flu or getting pneumonia every day?….snooze
Do you have brain damage?
Alden need to refresh his understanding of statistics. An average rate derived from a non statistically valid sample over a period of weeks when the rate of infection may be increasing or decreasing cannot simply be applied against the total population to give you a “pretty accurate” estimate of the total population of infected. It could be way more – it could be way less.
If things were that simple, the percentages should be fairly consistent irrespective of samples take, yet today’s results – ironically the day on which the Premier states that the estimate must be pretty accurate given how many tests have been done to date – is the same day that Dr Lee announces 4 positives from a sample of 694 – an infection rate of half a percent. Passing lightly over the fact that he is assuming a number for the total population of circa 75000 – when the ESO has never managed to determine exactly how many people are here, but their last guesstimate in Spring 2019 was 68000.
Just to show you how much of a spread there is, if you applied today’s results against that population figure, you would come to the far less impressive number of a current infected population of 391. It would have equal statistical validity i.e. none. He wants to start making sweeping statements like that, then take a statistically random sample of the current population and test them. And apply that against an accurate population figure.. otherwise you are guessing – an educated guess, sure, but being sure its pretty accurate – no.
Regarding the population, at the CAIS conference in February, Joey Hew said 70,000 and the very next day Eric Bush said 75K. Judging by the increased traffic between spring 2019 and February 2020, I’d say 75K pre-lockdown was probably close to accurate. There was a ton of overseas recruitment last year. Since the start of lockdown, several thousand have left, but some have come back. It’s hard to say, but I’d bet we’re still at least 72,000 or so.
And based on the spending I see, the only ones that are hurting are the poorest of the poor.
And in the Brac is about 4 000 people here, sure had hell.is plenty more than 2 000
How you know that?
People showing up that weren’t here before the lockdown. I saw someone at the stores last week that normally lives in Grand Cayman.
What should concern everyone here , Virus aside , is that in the year 2020 with all the modern resources we are being sold on that Cayman supposedly possesses , is that the government responsible has no idea on how many people actually live in the Territory . Despite a computer Network system that tags you leaving & departing , with an Immigration & Border Force manning that helm.
Edit: Forgot to include ‘Being Paid’ to man that helm.
They know. They just have their reasons to hide that information.
It has been close to 100K for the past two years hence the number of cars, traffic, housing shortage etc.
Govt just dont want to admit to these numbers because they been playing SimCity with a certain large developer for years whose developments and deals were reliant on and contingent upon a 100K population. 65K PR/Status and Caymanians, 35K WP holders.
Now that youve all seen the mathematical BS on govts tourism numbers and budgets, surely you now know why theyve been evading the population number question for months now!
They said theyre aiming to test 25% of population. So the day they hit
that certain number and make a big deal of patting themselves on the backs for some kind of first place, world achievement award, we can simply X4 that number and finally know the truth about our population number.
Thank you.
One of my concerns regarding the management of Cayman’s response to Covid-19 is that the strategy may not be supported by anything resembling statistical analysis or any other branch of applied mathematics.
It is also troubling that there seems to be a plan to test only people in economic sectors to be opened in the future, rather than re-testing people in sectors that have been open for 2 weeks, in order to determine whether re-opening a sector increases the transmission rate. It is entirely unclear how they will get valid information about changes to the rate of spread of the virus following re-opening of sectors if they do not systematically re-test a statistically significant sample of the sectors that have been opened for some time.
You fix this by taking the combined total tests and the combined total positives. That gets you to about 1.5%.
Frankly I don’t care if it’s growing or coming down or whether the actual number is higher or lower than 975 out of a population of whatever anyone thinks it is right now. It’s clear that many hundreds of people have it and didn’t even notice. In which case the reaction is totally overblown.
Pastor Alfredo
Agreed, the messaging from CIG is an insult to math and logic.
Dr. Lee should know better, and I don’t understand what the others are trying to accomplish.
If we have upwards of 1,000 people in the community with active virus we need to be locked in our houses.
If we take the Government’s message at face value Cayman is unique in the world as we have a large number of people with active infections but apparently only 1 out of the “1,000” has active symptoms.
10:01am Dr. Lee is not reinventing the wheel here this is how pandemic testing data is extrapolated, the government Advisory Committee is making highly probable estimate based on the testing data.
It makes absolute sense the more people have or had the virus previously that haven’t been tested yet based on the data. You’ll be shocked once the testing for antibodies begin.
Don’t lose too much sleep by all accounts it appears to be a terrible flu the mainly affects the elderly and persons with underlying morbidities.
Thankfully you are incorrect here. There are no where near 1,000 ACTIVE cases here and this is just bad math.
How I’m I wrong and you are right?
So this means then all of the healthy persons that have good immune systems that are asymptomatic dont count in your world, although they’re carriers of the virus.
Your missing the point that Dr. Lee was making on the 1000 potentially undocumented infections, too bad he didn’t explain it in a way that a little child could understand.
“Statistics for Dummies” is $8.83 to download from Amazon right now. We should get a few copies to circulate.
There have been quite a few people try to explain it, pick any one of the issues and the number is overstated.
Active case would be someone who might be able to spread it. We have 93 of the 164 case listed as recovered and 1 dead person so currently 70 people who MIGHT be able to spread this. Factor in the PCR test can’t tell the difference between dead and active virus and that causes one to wonder how many of the asymptomatic positives should actually be considered active.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-19/covid-patients-testing-positive-after-recovery-aren-t-infectious
Apparently you can shed detectable dead virus particles for up to 82 days after recovery but not be contagious while doing so.
Further the sample is not random, the positive tests are highly skewed to those who initially felt sick, contacts of positives and front line workers. Only now are we getting more random testing as large numbers of people such as construction workers are getting tested as they go back to work. If you look ar recent test the numbers of positives have generally been under 1%.
Others have spent more time on this and likely done a better job but you seem to be missing the point so why bother.
If we actually had 1,000 active cases as the Premier stated –
“But he said that with the increased testing, the estimated figures on how many people may be positive were increasingly accurate and the infection rate was a “sobering statistic” because it meant that there might be as many as 1,000 people with active virus in their bodies that could be spreading COVID-19 in the community.”
– It would be madness to even think of reopening the economy. Clearly they think it is okay to do so, leading me to believe that they are perhaps scaremongering to encourage compliance with their policies.
Statistics for dummies dont matter when you’re dealing with many variables? Leave it to the professionals, this not an exact Science, you believe any country will be testing their entire population? It never happened before and it’s not going to happen now.
Hopefully you are just trolling, the reason we use statistics is we are sampling. Our sample is not random so the numbers the Premier provided are grossly overstated.
Trolling, why would I put out misleading information? There are numerous studies that show up to 15% 20% of people that are randomly tested already have the antibodies. They is why I have been an advocate for the Antibodies test which would give a better picture of numbers on the ground.
There are so many things wrong with this headline… What is the test specificity? what is the estimated false positive rate? What confirmation procedures are we performing for positive test results? Is CARPHA even validating our positive tests? How can we able to extrapolate the test sample across the population accurately, controlling for testing error?
“X% percent of test results came back positive, therefore we expect X% of positive cases throughout the community” anyone with knowledge of mathematics and statistics can see what is fundamentally wrong with this statement.
The entire process here would not stand up to any level of scrutiny… either admit you have no clue what you are doing, or communicate in a clear and academically appropriate manner!
Definitely need to know the false positive rate. Suppose the test is 98.82% accurate, and so has a false positive rate of 1.18%. Sounds pretty good. But even if you had no one with Covid-19 on the island you would get 164 positive tests (false positives) if you test 13,947 people (1.18% x 13,947).
I’m not saying there is no Covid-19, but the number of positive tests doesn’t mean much without taking into account the false positive rate.
We are dealing with morons here, that is the problem. Case in point- the infographics list positive test results as “Confirmed Cases” without any independent confirmation procedures being performed.
These idiots think a positive result and a confirmed case are one and the same and we are going to be in lockdown forever as a result.
Show us how CARPHA is validating all these “Confirmed Cases” Dr. Lee!!
As long as no one is dead or the hospital is over run with sick patients then its fair to say we are safe. Stop trying to cause more alarm than you have already done. The world is slowing opening up and here we are going backward.
Cayman is divided between those who have responsibilities and those who don’t need to work for a living. Why don’t those who want everyone to stay home pay us to do so? Forget that idea. It would require innately selfish people to give.
If 1000 people are walking around with this virus then there is no chance of elimination. Open up the economy including tourism. This virus is here to stay. Gradual herd immunity is the only way other than outright lockdown. We can all return to normal life expect the most vulnerable. No one in hospital with CVid and only couple symptomatic.
I would be interested to know exact machine being used to test as the mean of the various machines is correlated to our infection rate and the false positive rate of the machines.
The continued oppression of the people and disregard for the populations livelihoods should be considered criminal. The Governor, the CMO and Government need to be held responsible for this failure.
What the CIG did initially made sense because the data from China looked really bad. We should not forget that the Chinese Communist murderers firstly, INTENTIONALLY withheld the true facts about the facts of their disease, got the WHO to also lie, and then secondly, encouraged it to spread outside of China to kill thousands abroad. The CIG did not cause the disease and was misled by the Chinese Communist Party, right along with the rest of the world.
However, now the testing snapshots of where the virus is in the Cayman population right now make it clear that it is spreading in spite of best efforts, and that it is less dangerous in Cayman than it was in China. It is time to open up Cayman internally now, and to consider allowing travel in and out when the virus numbers subside in the US and the UK.
Can the Premier or Dr. Lee explain why all the “1,000 people with active virus in their bodies” are asymptomatic? It’s a miracle…..
No, it is normal progression of this type of virus, if the virus kills the host it is unsuccessful in in its goal of propagation.
There is a rather large gulf between asymptomatic and dead. It’s called “showing symptoms” or, more colloquially, “not feeling well”. If 1,000 people have the virus I would expect at least some to be in this middle ground (as is the position in the rest of the world). Yet here everyone of those 1,000 people is (and has been since late April) apparently asymptomatic.
Also as viruses mutate, they get weaker in most cases.
“Almost 1,000 people out there”. That’s scaremongering nonsense.
164 positives from 13,947 people is 1.17%. Even if all 164 were positive at the same time, that would mean 760 people “out there” in a population of 65,000 However, the 164 are not all positive at the same time. It’s a cumulative historic number. There are 70 active cases. Meaning 0.5% of those tested to date are currently positive. So if we had tested everyone by now, there would be approximately 325 people “out there”. That assumes, of course, that not a single one of the 164 positives (almost none of whom, mysteriously, have shown symptoms) was a false positive…
As for the assertion that “Cayman is the most successful country in the world now for managing this pandemic”, what arrogance (or ignorance, or both). 173 countries have a lower per capita infection rate than Cayman and 133 have a lower per capita death rate. Even if you exclude the unfortunate cruise ship victim and claim we have zero deaths, that still only puts us in the same company as another 30 countries that have also had no deaths. If you want to compare us to another country, I’ll randomly suggest Hong Kong. A population of 7.5 million people, next door to China, a very dense urban population, and a grand total of 4 deaths. Plus their schools are open…..Or Hong Kong’s similar neighbour Macao. Ten times our population, a quarter of our cases in total, zero active cases and zero deaths….
I’d vote for you!
Neither is the sample random but skewed toward higher positives by testing family and contacts of known cases. A random sample would be far lower.
Where are the 800 dead people we were promised?
Soon come
You are right, soon come if they keep us locked down for longer.
People like you need to truly isolate. And by that I mean, grow your own food, get well water, generate your own electricity, burn your garage. Otherwise you are putting way too many people at risk so you can stay home.
never bet on a promise!
This is why we have so many cases on island. Fk wit
Had no measures been put in place that was the scenario, not a promise
If we can get large scale serology testing I think we may find a large number of us have already been exposed, but were asymptotic. This could be very helpful to reopening.
13-15%? Have you been taking maths lessons from the Minister of Health?
CNS Note: We humbly apologise somehow the decimal point managed to disappear into cyber space proving that as fabulous as CNS is we too can mess up!!
I hope the Premier recognizes that absolutely no one cares about rules and rules anymore. If the MOH’s wife can break the rules and absolutely nothing happened, why would anyone else follow the ridiculous rules ?
6:53 pm, you are right, if one high up can break the rules and Getaway with it, then all should be able to do the same The law should be for all. Those that was prosecuted, show sue for discrimination.
Time to check Premier, Governor, MLAs, they could be unknowingly spreading the virus.
Are kids allowed to go to restaurants? If yes, why? Why is this risk acceptable to the Premier?
I suspect there are many folk who think they have the virus. They are likely self-isolating because they don’t want to be tested and quarantined. If they truly honour the self-isolation, then that is really the best of things, and they will eventually enter into a period in which they aren’t contagious.
I think the cases will bloom after we open up, but like the U.S., many people will do as they wish, knowing that standards applicable to CV-19 will be extraordinarily difficult to enforce. I can just imagine the pub nearby and people standing a respectful 6 feet apart, and it makes me laugh. It will never happen. Once the doors open, the usual free-for-all will ensue, which is what people go there for. Once those doors close, everything stays inside, and normally, I would consider that none of my business.
Do we give a shit about our elders? Do we? I do. There was a time where your parents were ‘inconvenient’ to them also. There may have been a time where you were ‘inconvenient’ to your parents. We will eventually have to open the country, but hopefully it will be with safety protocols in mind.
I am not a medical expert. I read a lot, and what I’ve read indicates that Covid-19 convers little immunity to the human system. If that’s true, then a person can get the virus again, and, in fact, that occurrence has been documented several times. Do we let the virus in and let it have it’s way with us? Kill or permanently disable those who it touches?
I don’t know those answers; I’m just glad I’m not in charge of setting policy.
Any fact checking journalists in Cayman?
cayman has journalists(outside of cns)??????
This is 90% of the problem.
In many places of the world a fact-checking journalist is a threatened journalist (worse sometimes).
CNS: The biggest threat to journalism in many places is lack of funding. Google and Facebook suck up a lot of ad spend. To labour the point, fact checking is enormously time consuming. If you don’t have the funds, you can’t pay someone to do it. Ditto investigative journalism.
This reminds me of the phrase “There are lies, damn lies and then statistics” and what drives me nuts is the amateurish way they keep approaching this.
This is a number which has been simply extrapolated from raw data without any understanding of the fact that how they are collecting testing samples completely skews the number of positives they are getting back.
IF (and its not even a credible IF) they were seriously doing random sampling of the population then I could take this seriously. However they are not.
Firstly they are using the total number of positives and the total number of tests and this comes out to a positive rate of 1.176%. Taken out of a total population of 65,000 (again questionable right now) this equates to 764, not nearly 1,000 as is being claimed!
HOWEVER many of these tests weren’t random. A lot of these tests were conducted because there was some reasonable suspicion that the person being tested was positive. This could have been because the person had symptoms or was associated with a person who tested positive.
This completely invalidates the supposition that you can simply extrapolate the positive test rate we are seeing and then turn it into the number of people who are likely infected.
We have no idea of the likely number of people who are infected unless you run a random test on about 10% to 20% of the population. Even running random tests on front line staff, as they have been doing, will likely skew the numbers as these people are more likely to have been in contact with someone who is infected.
When we first were told about Covid we were told there could be up to 1,000 deaths. Now we are being told there is likely to be 1,000 people infected. Based on a simple understanding of statistics it is not unreasonable to estimate that in fact only about 250 to 400 people on island are infected.
It is extremely troubling that our own government is still unable to present statistics in an unbiased and factual way. Alden, we don’t buy the story anymore. It’s as simple as that. Please stop presenting opinions as facts. All it does is destroys more of the governments credibility and believablity.
I just posted above today but this is a much better answer than mine, thanks.
Some sketchy math in there. 164 is 1.176% of 1,364. If 975 people are carrying the virus, our population is approaching 83,000.
I don’t see how they get 1,000. Maybe 750. And I certainly don’t recall 1,000 being Dr. Spin’s initial estimate. He predicted more deaths than that. Here is the statistic that matters. Zero in hospital. Alden will bring this country to its knees. Make no mistake about it.
Alden your Govt is doing a good job. Don’t rush anything.
Simple. The leaders are incompetent and can’t manage basic math let alone even the fundamental concepts of statistics