Up to a dozen hurricanes in early 2024 storm forecast
(CNS): Two months before the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters at AccuWeather are predicting that it will be “super-charged” this year and well above the historical average. The weather experts are forecasting a “turbulent year in the tropics” that is likely to exhaust this year’s list of names, with between 20 and 25 named storms and as many as twelve becoming hurricanes.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said alarm bells are ringing about the potential for a surge in tropical activity as the signs point toward the upcoming season being worse than last year. He even suggested there is a 10-15% chance of 30 or more named storms this year.
“Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region,” DaSilva explained.
The Atlantic water temperatures observed in March were around or even warmer than they were in that month ahead of the blockbuster 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons. This will promote frequent storm development and increase the potential for systems to undergo rapid intensification, a phenomenon that has occurred in recent years with historically ferocious hurricanes. Unusually warm water could also help to spawn tropical systems in November when the Atlantic hurricane season is winding down.
Water near the equator of the Eastern Pacific is in the process of quickly flipping from El Niño, when temperatures in this area are higher than historical averages, to La Niña, when temperatures in this zone are lower than long-term normals. This swift transition may have significant implications across the Atlantic Ocean. The faster the transition to La Niña occurs, the more active the hurricane season is likely to be.
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Category: Science & Nature, Weather
Constant State of Fear……….
Consumer perfecto.
just prepare
A weather forecaster is the only occupation where you can be 90% wrong and still keep your job.
Or a job as a CIREBA realtor. Its always a good time to buy or sell, even in an active hurricane season.
” The views of South Sound are simply stunning “.
Hurricane forecasters work for the insurance industry.
Fact: scientists are often wrong. They said the same thing last year which turned out to be mild hurricane season.
Fact: I know that you will never understand this but.. This is not just about you and the tiny little island that is your world. This time.
Umm..No actually. Because it didn’t affect you, does not mean a ‘Mild’ season.
You’re joking, right? The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 20 named storms forming, tied with 1933. Among them, 7 became hurricanes, with 3 reaching major hurricane strength. While it is true that many recurved into the Atlantic and became “fish storms,” it doesn’t mean the season was “super average.” What’s more, because of the emerging onset of La Niña this year, the upper level winds aren’t likely to recurve as many storms this year. This has been stated by educated meteorologists on numerous occasions and as recently as last week at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. Your uneducated opinion is irresponsible. People should prepare accordingly and then hope for best.
It was actually BELOW average.
Average (1991 – 2020) Hurricanes 7.2, Major Hurricanes 3.2.
Season 2023 – Hurricanes 7, Major Hurricanes 3.
Anything that ain’t a hurricane is just bad weather. Grace was a cat 1 and was like a summers day in dear old blighty.
With regard to named storms (not hurricanes) it was the 4th busiest season on record. Many stayed tropical storms because of El Nino. The fact that there were even 20 named storms in an El Nino year is troubling. Grace was a TS when it passed us, running into a Cat 1 soon afterwards. You can argue with NOAA over that. Saying a tropical storm “is just bad weather” is ignorant and irresponsible. Although tropical storms cause fewer deaths because storm surge isn’t a big threat, they can ruin crops and cause all kinds of flooding problems. And if people are dumb enough to go out in a tropical storm because they think it’s “just bad weather,” they could get killed (falling tree/debris, washed into the sea, electrocuted). All indications, in particular record ocean warmth in the main cyclogenesis areas, are that the upcoming season will be very active. It might not be active here in Cayman, but it is best to be aware and plan accordingly. There is no sense in poo-pooing the experts out of some sort of ill-informed macho bravado.
Are you reading from an insurance industry warning?! 10.22 is simply pointing out the recorded facts & figures. You are seeking to conflate and exaggerate the context. The point on ‘just bad weather’ is a bit crass, but it’s also relevant when you consider and compare ‘bad weather’ in other places with a TS here in Cayman. Storm Katheleen is hitting Scotland/Ireland right now and whilst people are aware and there is some delays to public transport etc. there is no one hunkering down and buying up toilet roll. Calling people ignorant and irresponsible because they don’t follow your choice of ‘facts’ is what stifles debate and ipso facto leaves you to your echo chamber. Good luck.
I think that’s the point/problem. All the drama about it – worst ever, the end is nigh etc. – it just turns people off or at best, desensitizes them. As such people do not ‘prepare accordingly’ – as another pointed out, it’s the boy who cried wolf.
Never fear! Never been a better time to buy! Buy! Buy! Buy!
Exactly! Consumer perfecto.
Thank god we have a radar.
oh never mind.
12.50pm Hopefully the radar tower will be blown towads the Brac and we can get our long overdue new one.
just bring it…
With a statement like that, I’m guessing you weren’t around during Ivan.
Last year was also going to be ‘super charged’ but was actually ‘super average’ … stop this alarmist or else we will end up like the boy who cried wolf.