Forecasters warn of stormy weather ahead
(CNS): As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its peak period, professional weather forecasters are warning that the next three months could produce some very bad weather. NOAA is expected to deliver its mid-season update on Thursday, but over the last week, the UK’s Met Office and meteorologists at Colorado State University have issued warnings that the warm Atlantic could fuel major storms in August, September and October.
The season has been relatively quiet so far, with just one hurricane and three named benign storms, but forecasters are warning that the record-breaking temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean could override the El Niño influence.
“Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic are at record warm levels,” hurricane researchers at CSU said in their mid-season update. “Normally El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity, while an extremely warm Atlantic increases hurricane activity, so how these diametrically opposing factors interact will determine exactly how much activity occurs in 2023.”
With waters across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic near or at record levels across most of the basin, the likelihood of hurricanes increases. The experts at CSU are predicting that there will be 18 named storms and nine hurricanes, including the four that have formed so far. But given the conflicting signals between a likely moderate to strong El Niño and a much warmer Atlantic, they again stressed the continued uncertainty about the forecast.
“Our analog seasons exhibited a wide range of outcomes, from below normal seasons to hyperactive seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report. “This highlights the large uncertainty that exists with this outlook.”
Klotzbach told USA Today that while we’re about one-third of the way through the season, “we’ve got about 95% of seasonal activity to go from an historical perspective,” as he warned that the season could turn “hyper-active” in the coming months.
There are currently no storms in the Atlantic, and the US National Hurricane Center is not expecting any tropical systems to form over the next week.
The Cayman Islands Weather Service is forecasting partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers and possible thunder today. Temperatures are expected to rise to the low 90’s °F, with a heat index of 109°F. Winds will be east to northeast at five to ten knots. Seas will be slight, with wave heights of one to three feet.
A tropical wave over the Central Caribbean is expected to move over the Cayman area, supporting cloudiness and some showers from Tuesday night.
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Category: Local News
“Forecasters warn of stormy weather ahead”
Yes, it’s called hurricane season.
High windsheer and dust means they aren’t developing on the west.
High water temps means they develop early and go north. Could be a bad year for eastern Caribbean, think we might not get much this year.
There. Now that is a well-reasoned, informative forecast. It has been so long since I’ve seen such that I hardly recognised it. well done!
Thank you. I concur, with the addition that the recent steering currents might suggest a west to east general movement of any TCs.
A weather man, akin to a fortune teller and the only jobs where one can keep your job for continually getting it wrong.
Under those heavy rain and strong winds it behooves me to say it is quiet romantic with candlelight, a bucket of the Colonial Sander’s fine chicken and Lionel Ritchie All Night Long playing. That’s Caymanian baby making environment indeed.
Dear Moderator. I would respectfully ask that you ban the following (not in order of irritation):
1. It behooves me.
2. Fix the Dump.
3. Another day in Absurdistan.
All very tedious.
Bravo 11.53….can we add “ban leaf blowers” to your list please..?
Take your complaints to the commissioner.
1. I feel your pain, however, I am enjoying the recent upsurgence of … … ‘behoovement’. It amuses me and apparently others.
2. I have a soft spot for the ‘fix the dump’ guy. Can’t explain it. It just is.
3. Completely agree with the ‘Absurdistan’ crap. Completely annoying.
4. I would like to add “stay woke”. That phrase is so wrong on so many levels. It almost behooves me to list all the levels, but not quite.
Again …You behoove too much, but “Quiet” and “Colonial” tell me everything I need to know about a serial behoover.
Talk about stating the obvious – we are about to enter the statistical peak of the hurricane season so of course “the next three months could produce some very bad weather.”
In other news, forecasters also said “it could snow during winter months in areas north of the Arctic Circle”.
You are a very well read person Chris. Please continue your good work.
Some corrections are needed in this Article.
So far we have had a total of five (5) storms thus far, (Note that the 1st storm of the season formed in January 2023) One (1) of which became a Hurricane. Looking at climatological record and as as per noted by National Hurricane Center, the Atlantic Hurricane Season is running above average. Unlike the “relatively quiet so far…” as noted in this Article.
The end is nigh!
These guys would have better luck predicting the winning numbers in the PowerBall lottery.
yawn…just bring it.
stats say we will be fine this year.
you people are insufferable.
what people? Those that anticipate that every single year has a high probability of TCs in the Caribbean and Atlantic? Those who haven’t ever been positively affected by the prognostications of either NOAA or CSU?
Those that don’t care for every little variable in the weather and heat index being automatically conjoined with climate change?
Pick a lane if you are going to rant about “us people”.