El Niño may quieten 2023 storm season
(CNS): Current neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño during the summer or autumn, reducing the likelihood of a busy Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2023, according, to storm forecasters. Colorado State University is predicting a quieter than average season with around 13 named storms, of which six are likely to become hurricanes.
However, experts have warned there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño will be if it develops, and if it doesn’t develop, warmer than normal sea temperatures could still fuel a busy season.
The CSU team said there was more uncertainty than usual with this year’s outlook due to conflicting signals. But they anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” the hurricane forecasters warned.
Caribbean sea surface temperatures are near their long-term averages, but El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. The increased upper-level winds result in vertical wind shear, which can tear apart hurricanes as they try to form. On the other hand, warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic favour an above normal season.
But there is a probability of at least one major storm making landfall in the Caribbean, which will cause havoc wherever it passes.
A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be in Grand Cayman this week as part of a regional tour by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Air Force Reserve to educate and prepare people for the 2023 hurricane season.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Acting Director Jamie Rhome, who will be in Cayman, said the team will be telling people about the role of the NHC in assisting countries in hurricane regions.
“We are excited to be face-to-face with community members to discuss specific risks people face during a major hurricane, especially the dangers of water and storm surge,” he said in a press release about the visit.
Cayman Islands National Weather Service (CINWS) Director General John Tibbetts said his team works in close partnership with the NHC every hurricane season and to have representatives here was a great opportunity.
“They will certainly inspire the students who get to tour the aircraft and meet with these top experts,” he said. “We hope the public will also take the opportunity to tune in to Radio Cayman on 19 April to hear about the latest developments in hurricane forecasting and risk analysis from the acting director of the National Hurricane Center, including some information that has significant implications for the people in the Cayman Islands.”
During the visit, Rhome will meet with Premier Wayne Panton, who is the current chairperson of the Caribbean Meteorological Organization, and other officials. Panton said it was reassuring to know the technical support of the experts at the NHC was available. “These relationships are incredibly important to improving our national disaster preparedness and resiliency,” he said.
The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, an elite US Air Force Reserve Unit, form the crew of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. They will showcase one of these planes on Wednesday to a number of scheduled school groups from both public and private schools in Grand Cayman and share their experiences of flying through hurricanes.
There will also be a number of educational booths and displays set up by local agencies, including Hazard Management Cayman Islands, CINWS, Royal Cayman Islands Police Service, Cayman Islands Airports Authority and the Cayman Islands Regiment, with representatives from these entities discussing their role in hurricane preparedness and response with those in attendance.
HMCI Director Danielle Coleman said the work of the National Hurricane Center was of critical importance, with hurricanes being the number one threat to life and property here.
“We appreciate the work of the brave and intrepid crews on these Hurricane Hunter aircraft who fly directly into these hugely powerful storms and help keep us informed and prepared for all significant threats,” she said.
The Hurricane Hunter is only here for a short visit, so while the aircraft will not be open for general admission, the public will be able to tune in to Radio Cayman’s For the Record Show on Wednesday morning, starting at 7:30am, and then the Talk Today Show from 12:15pm, to hear from Rhome and other senior meteorologists and forecasters, including Daniel Brown, NHC Senior Hurricane Specialist in charge of Warning Coordination. The public can call in and ask questions on these radio shows as well.
During hurricanes, Air Force crews fly state-of-the-art WC-130J aircraft directly into the core of the storm to gather critical data for forecasting a hurricane’s intensity and landfall. The data is sent in real time via satellite from the aircraft directly to the NHC for analysis and use by hurricane forecasters.
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Category: Science & Nature, Weather
To my fellow Caymanians and residents, if you want daily up-to-date information, regarding the Caribbean, especially knowing what is happening around our area of Cayman, ignore the US Weather Channel and subscribe to Mr. Weatherman on YouTube.
He is the best weather meterologist that I have come across that gives the most indepth daily weather report of the Caribbean Region. No regrets if you do.
Don’t be complacent – 2004 was also an El Niño year and recall how that went for us 🙁
This forecast is academic. One big one can ruin your day even if the season is “quiet.”
And it may not. Mother Nature is fickle that way. See 7MB sargassum for proof.
By ACE index, 2022 was the quietest start to a hurricane season through the end of August since 1988. Not a single named storm formed in August for the first time in 25 years and only the third time since 1950.
But two late-season hurricanes proved catastrophic in Florida and Puerto Rico.
My A1C is down with Rybelsus. Your point?
But are you down with O.P.P.?
You need some sugar for your brain to work
How about fixing the radar?
soon come
2022 was the quiet season, yet it has managed to devastate Cape Coral, Fort Myers and other SWFL cities. While the rest of the world has already forgotten about Ian, restoration/rebuilding/repairs are just starting in the affected areas.
‼️LESSONS TO LEARN FROM HURRICANE IAN:
“Understanding forecast uncertainty is something every emergency manager should be an expert on,”
‼️Past hurricanes have shown that the greatest dangers don’t always come from the storm itself but during the recovery, as people grapple with power outages, poor sanitation, no shelter, injuries, and a lack of medical care.
Ian strengthened to a Category 4 storm as it made landfall west of Fort Myers, Florida, on September 28, 2022.
🛑Predicting Hurricane Ian proved especially tricky.
🛑Hurricane Ian underwent rapid intensification, a phenomenon where a hurricane gains more than 35 mph in wind speed over 24 hours. For meteorologists, this remains a difficult trait to anticipate
🛑Hurricane Ian followed a route less traveled, as it spooled up in the Caribbean and climbed north into the Gulf of Mexico before hooking east toward Florida.
🛑 Ian rapidly intensified twice over, surging from 75 mph winds to 155 mph in 48 hours.
✅Hurricane Ian is the second-deadliest storm to strike the continental U.S. this century, behind Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
✅At least 101 people have been confirmed dead, including 92 in Florida, five in North Carolina, one in Virginia, and three in Cuba.
✅ Ian had sustained winds of 155 mph, making it just 2 mph short of category 5 strength.
✅A storm surge with inundation of an unprecedented 12 to 18 feet above ground level
✅Ian produced 15 tornadoes in the United States. Fourteen of the tornadoes occurred in Florida on 27‒28 September in Ian’s outer rain bands. The magnitude of the tornadoes ranged from EF 0‒2, some of which caused injuries and considerable property damage.
✅IAN battered SWFL cities for more than 6 hours at hurricane 4 strength.
✅Hurricane Ian stretches nearly 500 miles from east to west
✅Ian tore a destructive path stretching more than 140 miles across the FL state.
DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION
🆘 Ian caused an estimated $112.9 billion worth of total damage in the United States. Of that total, $109.5 billion occurred in Florida, making Ian the costliest hurricane to ever affect that state.
🆘In Fort Myers Beach alone, an estimated 900 structures were totally
destroyed and 2,200 were damaged. In Lee County, at least 52,514 structures were
impacted, of which 5,369 were destroyed and 14,245 received major damage. Bridges and roadways were also severely damaged or destroyed. Roads and bridges to Sanibel and Pine Islands were washed away, limiting access to either by boat or helicopter. A portion of Interstate 75 in southern Sarasota County was shut down due flooding from the Myakka River. In Collier County, 33 buildings were destroyed, and over 3,500 buildings sustained major damage while atleast 200 homes were destroyed in Charlotte County.
🆘 Florida experienced the largest loss of power with ~3.28 million customers total and maximum outage count of 2.78 million at once.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092022_Ian.pdf
Moral of the story? Don’t live in Florida.
The comments went over your head
yawn…this season is done before it’s even started. bring on some action in ’24!
I sure hope El Niño will prevail this year. Thankfully we will get some rain though!!