Opposition to question minister on potential recession
(CNS): When legislators meet in parliament next week, among the 21 parliamentary questions that members of the opposition intend to put to the government, Opposition Leader Roy McTaggart will be asking Finance Minister Chris Saunders what the chances are that the Cayman Islands will face a recession next year. McTaggart wants to know the “government’s assessment regarding the likelihood of the Cayman Islands entering a recession in 2023”. According to the World Bank, the interest rate hikes in response to inflation indicate that the world may be edging toward a recession.
“Global growth is slowing sharply, with further slowing likely as more countries fall into recession,” World Bank Group President David Malpass said recently.
Here in Cayman, inflation is still soaring and interest rates have been climbing in line with increases in the United States. But after four consecutive “jumbo” rate hikes of 0.75%, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has suggested that the next rate hike in December may only be half a point. In a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC on Wednesday, he said that while inflation is still far too high, the Fed would moderate the pace of rate increases in the hope of avoiding a recession.
But many economists feel a downturn is inevitable, given the global instability fuelled by the war in Ukraine, the continued fallout from the pandemic, supply chain problems and the increasing disruption from climate change.
The most recent figures from the Cayman Islands Economics and Statistics Office state that inflation was running at 12% in June. But with a head of cauliflower costing CI$15 in some local supermarkets, people can be forgiven for believing it could be twice that. Most residents are well aware that the cost of living here is making life extremely difficult, despite the government’s efforts to help those in need, such as subsidising residential CUC bills.
According to the Strategic Policy Statement delivered in July 2021, based on data that is now more than 18 months old, the government was forecasting that the economy would have grown this year by more than 4.7% but expecting it to slow in 2023, 2024 and 2025 by an average of 2.9%.
While public finances continued to do well during the first half of this year, reflecting the growth in the offshore sector and property sales, the government has not yet published its unaudited financial results for the nine-month period ending September. Government officials told CNS that they hope to release that report by Monday.
Indications are that the tourism recovery will likely continue keeping public finances healthy through the end of the year, but next year could be a different story. If Saunders delivers a comprehensive answer to the opposition leader’s question next week, it will reveal the government’s updated expectations for the economy in 2023.
The government is due to convene the next meeting of parliament on Wednesday at 10am.
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RM, you know what would help? Agree that you all are overpaid and ask that ALL MPs agree to a substantial pay cut. Then you all use that extra funds to really make a dent into the programmes and policies that the more vulnerable person in out society so desperately need.
Other than that, anything out of PPM, who by the way helped mostly to put us in the current predicament, we don’t need nor want to hear.
Saunders can’t even spell recession deh.
did-nothing-ppm now questioning no-plan-pact????…zzzzzzzzz
instead of asking pointless questions roy, how about come up with proposals on what you would do different.
PPM did a lot…
– sold Caymanians futures while lining their pockets and
– did anything England wanted and collected their knighthoods
PACT have done nothing but continue the welfare state created by PPM.
Greedy stupid men.
Some very obvious (and obscene) price gouging going on.
Yes Fosters, I am looking at you.
Quadrupling or quintupling prices under the pretense of “inflation” is pure bullshit. You know it and we know it.
easily investigated.
unless there is collusion between major grocery stores….it is fair open market pricing.
Get woke go broke. Pay up suckers!
Opposition Leader Roy McTaggart will be asking Finance Minister Chris Saunders what the chances are that the Cayman Islands will face a recession next year.
Isn’t that the same as asking Jon Jon a question about Calculus?
Have these many new proposed Laws been fully explained??
While the Parliament members will this week debate the National ID and other topics, one that is not receiving attention but threatens to broadly impact free speech beyond the responsibilities of the free pree and actually impede ordinary citizen is the proposed Contempt of Court Law.
It also removes self protection to not incriminate yourself and the right to also remain silent!!.
This needs serious public discussion.
As it states a crime will include –
(c) refusing to answer questions if you are called as a witness; and
(d) publicly commenting on a court case on social media or online news articles.
Accounting and law firms are bursting at their seams, as well as director and fund administrators, and more coming. No recession in Cayman overall, but many will feel an economic burden (mainly by price pressure).
Plus the completion of new properties and transfers of existing properties. High end properties such as Watermark, on completion, will result alone in significant stamp duty revenue (Watermark, at least $25 million, excluding furniture).
The problem is that the supermarkets and merchants will charge what they can get away with, and those that are profiting from the booming financial services and real estate development sector are not phased by the prices being levied. They can afford it, and consider it a cost to pay to play in the market here. Same issue applies with housing – demand up from the well off drives up all prices. Unfortunately, those that are not key players in the boom industries eat the same food, shop for the same services, live in housing on the same island – and are nowhere near as equipped to deal with the consequent price inflation. And the government doesn’t want to offend the merchant classes by restricting the profiteering. Its not a recession -that affects everyone – its the consequences of a massive and growing distortion in wealth distribution, accompanied by limited supply in terms of housing and a complete lack of pricing protection.
Anarchy might just be the answer to solving this out of control price gouging issue of ours. CUC has a monopoly so no competition to allow a level playing field, The Big Supetmarkets same thing charging CI$9 for stale lettuce, its time we stop this madness once and for all. Start boycotting the shops, get a petition for Co-ops with local farmers/producers,do blackouts to reduce CUC profits.
lol. We grow enough food for about 1% of our population.
They gave themselves huge raises after being elected. Over a year ago.
But they will only look into Minumum wages of $4.50/hr and $6 – Maybe NEXT YEAR!
And Cayman Islands Insurance Association is telling people that their property insurance premium rates will increase next year! So, hard times for homeowners.
All of you complaining that grocery store are “gouging” you should stop complaining and form your own small co-op.
Get a few hundred of you together and collectively import food each week. Pay someone for logistics.
Probably not going to save a lot, but you are free to do.
Fosters/Kirks/Hurleys owners type post IMHO.
Nope. Original poster. Nothing preventing you from importing bulk food. Economically, you will need to do as a group. Can be done, we have looked into it.
Surprisingly, retail margins on individual products are very small; grocers rely on volume, not margins. Not really Cayman specific.
Dont take it from me, this is publicly available information — research wholesale products from Florida, factor handling and refrigerated shipping. Then local handling logistics and reception or delivery of products to consumers. There is some cost advantage, but not really that much.
Surprisingly, retail margins on individual products are very small; grocers rely on volume, not margins. Not really Cayman specific.
Surprisingly, I have heard that repeated often. However it flies in the face of experience when anyone delivers, straight to their doorstep I may add, locally grown produce like mango, avocado, tomato, peppers etc. and you get half the price they sell it for.
Truth hurts?
Imagine suggesting that when progressive and fosters have the monopoly on exclusive deals with suppliers.
If only they didn’t all spend their money buying the end of life, about to go stale left overs from distributers in the US.
Hell, Fosters will sell you 5-day old bread for the same price as bread made fresh that day. That shows the level of intelligence (at least I hope they are stupid and not just gouging as that’s worse) that they can’t even yellow label it or something.
$5 for stale bread when you can just reach out behind and get the same bread, same price but actually fresh.
Over Thanksgiving in the US a head of lettuce was $1.88 US at Walmart and at another store $3.29US. Gas is down to about $3.10 a gallon US. You can draw your own conclusions as to why prices are what they are in Cayman. Just glad I don’t like cauliflower 🤮🤮🤮
Have you tried shopping lately?
Strawberries 13 ci yes 13 ci
Lettuce and cauliflowers out of this world.
If you stand there long enough the price actually changes in front of you.
Places Re price gorging there are no other words for it.
Disgusting supermarket prices and no one is doing a damn thing. Nothing costs so much to import overnight
Aldi supermarket in Ft Lauderdale last week – 1 dozen grade A large eggs $1.29 US. How come medium eggs are $6.00 CI here?
How about the prices of the hotels? Price gouging, too. Same with the rental cars. Restaurants. Cayman needs to come to grips.
One supermarket put their food bar price up nearly a dollar per pound and items such as their ready made coleslaw just suddenly doubled. They raise everything just because they can and many of these prices will never come back down.
That same $15 head of Cauliflower was $8 a week later…that pretty much sums up who is getting screwed and who is taking the pi$$!
Thats only because it was the same inventory and aging so they reduced the price to get it off the shelf!
How our government is able to announce 12-15% cost of living increases while we watch produce, meat, EGGS (!!!) and all else go up 30 to 300% in less than a year really tells you how out of touch they are with the reality of living here in Cayman and the struggle that many have been going through. Its apparent that they dont know whats going on until its too late…really, you’re just now worried about a recession?
Roy already knows what to expect from Chris, Roy is just taking delight in the opportunity of embracing the role of Govt troll. 👹👍
Their will not be any recession in Cayman as we are recession proof. Mr. Dart will make sure things keep rolling along.
In general Saunders doesn’t have a clue but asking him to forecast next year is laughable.
Cayman reacts to the global economy with a time lag and he has no special insight.
chris will say everything is great no recession for us lol lol
MP Saunders, MP Bryan, MP McKeeva, MP Jonnay, MP Seymour and some other MPs, on both sides of the legislature are too busy pushing for gambling in order to legitimize the illegal gambling of many MPs, senior civil servants and RCIPS Officers.
They do not have the interest to even begin to look at forward thinking.
the recession will catch Government and our people by surprise as did the 2007-9 recession.
At that time PPM refuted and decried warning people gave them.
Maybe MP McTaggert is beginning to use his financial knowledge and educate the other PPM MPs.
We do need good governance.
Potential? Woy has his finger on the pulse as always…
The head of cauliflower at $15, surely it is time we stopped letting Fosters and Kirks and other retailers fleece us because “we’re an Island nation” and import costs, etc are so challenging.
I’d support a price control on all imported goods. its not socialism. Its realism.
Anyone bringing in anything to retail or wholesale or distribute must:
Show the original purchase order and invoice at the point of purchase
Then is allowed to add on the Duty and Freight
And you can all put on, what, 15% price mark-up? 25%? Are we cool with 25%? if you have a business and you don’t think you can make money marking up pure profit on imports including freight and duty, then get out of the business and leave us alone to try to afford to live.
At the very least, we should have Fosters and Kirks and others FORCED to show us all the prices they are buying their goods at
I have suspicion that we are being not only played and fleeced, but we are paying the price of very poor management and procurement policies
Similar to CUC and their inability to hedge properly against fuel increases.
Why must the common man, woman and whatever you identify as be punished for the ineptitude of local business to efficiently operate and budget? (assuming we are not simply being totally fleeced).
Enough. Price controls must come in. Agreed mark ups – 25% on all goods, fine. That makes a lettuce around $4 looking at what it cost me in Texas last month.
$9.00 at Fosters for an iceburg lettuce just recently 🥬😂😂😂😂😂
To be fair, 25% is hardly enough. Not a business owner at all, but also aware of the high costs of doing business here and lets be fair, they NEED to make money in order to provide the services they do to us.
I have started importing many of my own non-perishables as even with the cost of duty and shipping it’s still cheaper. I will continue to shop locally at businesses that don’t fleece and take the pi$$ but some of these items are 3 to 5 times the prices in the US.
Do they need to make 300%? at which point is it greed? I heard some dumb yank call something “inflation” the other day when it’s something like 200% margin over Amazon.com price.
Should have told him to stop licking the boots of his masters but I suspect he was one of the parasitical capitalist pigs we import from North America.
Enjoy hunger then
Absolute nonsense. Price controls WILL lead to shortages. They ALWAYS do. Very basic economics.
like most places in the world…most people here are cash rich…world economy has gotten fat and lazy from non-stop covid handouts….hence huge levels of inflation.
bottom line there will be no cayman recession officially but many caymanians in lower/middle classes will have it tough for a few years.
Is Chris Saunders now in charge of the global economy? Strange desperate effort by PPM to score cheap points with anyone who might not understand our place in the world. From PPM’s finance guy no less.
how dare McTaggart critique recession….along with Alldumb, he created the welfare state….fy Sleepy!
Thanks AnonDumb!
hmmm…you were left back in school weren’t you?
Aldi, Publix, Lidl, Sainsbury, Tesco, Walmart, Asda and so many other low cost Supermarket chains should be allowed to enter the Cayman market. Cost will be significantly reduced in 2 years, most of these companies invest in local produce, use renewable energy and have a supply chain that makes it easier to keep cost/inflation at healthy levels. Our Caymanian supermarkets are just corporate companies who are happy being monopolies.