Ian intensifies as it heads away from Cayman
(CNS): UPDATED 1pm Monday: The hurricane warning for Grand Cayman and the tropical storm watch for the Sister Islands were lifted at 1pm Monday but a tropical storm warning was issued for Grand Cayman as Hurricane Ian continue to produce tropical conditions across the island. The centre of Ian was located just over 100miles northwest of the island at the time and was moving at around near 13 mph with winds of 85mph and higher gusts. On the forecast track, tropical storm winds are expected to end around 2pm.
As Ian moved away sporadic power outages continued and many roads were flooded or blocked as a result of rough seas and continuing storm surge.
Cayman Airways said its call centre was now re-opened and the fleet is ready to resume operations as soon as Cayman’s airports reopen. Additional flights from Miami and Tampa to Cayman have been scheduled to help residents leave ahead of Ian’s arrival in Florida as a major hurricane later this week.
UPDATED 10am Monday: Ian was located about 87 miles west of Grand Cayman when the centre of the hurricane moved passed the island at around 10am Monday. Waves battered the southern shore and caused road closures in and around the Red Bay and South Sound areas as well as random power outages. Residents are urged to stay off the roads as tropical force conditions are expected to continue for several more hours. Ian is a category one hurricane with winds of 80mph currently moving towards the NW at 13mph causing extremely rough seas and storm surge.
Grand Cayman remains under a hurricane warning and the Sister Islands a tropical storm watch. Stay informed and be prepared by visiting www.gov.ky and www.caymanprepared.ky or tune in to Radio Cayman 89.9FM on Grand Cayman or 93.9FM on the Sister Islands.
See earlier posts below.
UPDATED 7am Monday: At 7am local time the centre of Hurricane Ian was around 85 miles WSW of Grand Cayman and almost at its closest point packing winds of 75mph with higher gusts. Based on the latest forecast track, conditions are expected to worsen here as Ian is forecast to rapidly intensify, with tropical storm force winds on Grand Cayman well into the afternoon. Hurricane Ian is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Officials advised residents to continue monitoring the storm’s progress, remain vigilant and stay indoors until the all clear.
UPDATED 4am Monday: Hurricane Ian formed some 85 miles southwest of Grand Cayman during the early hours of Monday morning, the CINWS reported in its 4am bulletin. With winds of 75mph and higher gusts, Ian was moving at 14mph towards the northwest and was expected to be some 75 miles to the west of Cayman at its closest point at around 7am this morning. Ian is forecast to rapidly intensify as it passes Cayman. According to the NHC, hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 15 miles while tropical-storm-force winds extend out some 90 miles.
UPDATED 10pm Sunday: Located less than 140 miles south of the Cayman Islands, Tropical Storm Ian was packing winds of 65mph with higher gusts, as it travelled northwest towards Grand Cayman at 13mph, at 10pm local time Sunday. According to the local forecast track, the centre of Ian is expected to pass 73 miles SW of Grand Cayman at around 7am tomorrow when it is expected to be at hurricane strength as the storm continues to strengthen and track closer to Cayman. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 70 miles from the centre.
UPDATED 7pm Sunday: Tropical Storm Ian was beginning to strengthen as the NHC issued its interim advisory at 7pm Sunday, recording wind speeds of near 60mph and higher gusts. The storm is still moving toward the northwest near 12mph. The centre of Ian is forecast to pass near or west of Grand Cayman Monday morning after additional strengthening tonight and the early hours of the morning when it is expected to become a hurricane. The National Emergency Operation Committee is urging residents to avoid driving on the roads from 8pm Sunday as heavy bands of rain are forecast with deteriorating road safety conditions.
Grand Cayman remains under a hurricane warning and the Sister Islands a tropical storm watch.
UPDATED 4pm Sunday: Tropical Storm Ian was moving WNW at around 12mph when it was located some 220 miles SSE of Grand Cayman at 4pm Sunday. While wind speeds fell slightly to 45mph the National Hurricane Centre is still calling for rapid intensification tonight when Ian is forecast to become a hurricane. According to the local forecast on the current track, the centre of Ian is now expected to pass within 85 miles SW of Grand Cayman on Monday morning as at least a category one hurricane.
Grand Cayman remains under a hurricane warning and the Sister Islands a tropical storm watch.
UPDATED 1pm Sunday: Tropical Storm Ian was located around 265 miles SSE of Grand Cayman and moving towards the WNW at around 12 mph when the National Hurricane Centre issued its 2pm (local time Ipm) bulletin. A turn toward the northwest is expected this evening and on the current track, the centre of Ian is still expected to pass near of Grand Cayman early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin tonight. Ian is expected to become a hurricane by early Monday.
Grand Cayman remains under a Hurricane Warning and the Sister Islands remain under a Tropical Storm Watch. Though current forecast tracks show a further westerly shift of Tropical Storm Ian, the latest data has shown the potential for the system to quickly intensify to a strong hurricane as it passes the Cayman Islands and weather conditions are still expected to become poor over the next twelve hours.
Deputy Governor Franz Manderson said Ian seems to be moving away from the Cayman Islands in a favourable direction but its potential to impact all three islands remains a very real possibility.
“This system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, winds and large waves at our coastlines so we must remain vigilant,” he said. “For this reason, we have made the decision to not lift the Tropical Storm Watch for the Sister Islands nor the Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman. This system cannot be underestimated and I trust the people of the Cayman Islands to continue their preparedness activities and take all necessary precautions. Please, stay off the roads and away from beaches until the All Clear has been given. The safety of our people is paramount at this time”.
Director of the National Weather Service John Tibbetts said the continued changes to the storm indicates that the forecast uncertainty remains high. “There remains the possibility of rapid intensification,” he said. “I advise the public to continue their preparedness activities and to remain vigilant until an All Clear is given.”
Sunday 10am: According to the local forecast as of 10am Sunday, the centre of Tropical Storm Ian was expected to pass around 104 miles southwest of Grand Cayman at about 10am Monday when winds here could reach hurricane force. A hurricane warning remains in effect for Grand Cayman and the tropical storm watch for the Sister Islands which was lifted earlier on Sunday morning has been reinstated. At the time of this post, TS Ian was some 300 miles away and moving at around 14mph with winds of more than 50mph but it is expected to rapidly intensify today and become a hurricane sometime Sunday evening.
Weather conditions are expected to begin deteriorating later today. Overcast skies with widespread thunderstorms are expected with tropical storm conditions late into Sunday night and possible hurricane conditions early Monday morning as the system nears the Cayman Islands. As the system moves more west of the Cayman Islands, tropical storm force winds with possible hurricane force gusts are expected for Grand Cayman by early Monday morning.
Extremely rough seas accompanied by storm surge are also expected. Swells generated by Ian will spread into the Cayman area later today. The Sister Islands are expected to experience similar conditions but have a lower chance of experiencing storm force winds based on the current forecast track. Marine warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands, with anticipated wave heights of six to eight feet, and storm surge of two to four feet.
Forecasts show two to four inches of rainfall over the next 72 hours, thus triggering flood warnings for the Cayman Islands. Those living in low-lying areas are strongly encouraged to seek shelter on higher ground.
The following shelters on Grand Cayman which also serve as designated Emergency Medical Centres are due to open Sunday 25 September at 2pm:
o Sir John A. Cumber Primary School
o John Gray High School (Pet friendly)
o Bodden Town Primary School
o Clifton Hunter High School (Pet friendly)
o East End Civic Centre
o Cayman Islands Red Cross shelter (opens at 4pm)
Due to what is expected to be bad weather regardless of the track, Cayman Airways Limited (CAL) has cancelled all flights for Monday with the anticipated closure of airports in the Cayman Islands from 4pm Sunday. “Recovery flights have been added for Tuesday and Wednesday, September 27 and 28, 2022 to accommodate passengers affected by Monday’s cancellations,” Officials from the airline said.
CUC’s North Sound Road and Caribbean Plaza will be closed Monday and residents are asked to report downed power lines or electrical fires to 911. While CUC will continue to maintain the power supply throughout depending on the severity of the storm it may cut supply to protect the system. The Water Authority has also warned that it may have to shut down if the network is at risk.
Stay informed by visiting gov.ky or caymanprepared.gov.ky
- Fascinated
- Happy
- Sad
- Angry
- Bored
- Afraid
Category: Science & Nature, Weather
I’m still waiting on word from the Govt re TS Grace since it was whole lot worse than tropical force winds from Hurricane Ian. TS force winds 73 max from Grace? Really?!
I have learned something from each storm. I have a lot of years on me. Long ago I learned to take responsibility for my own safety when storms threaten.
We now have a plethora of resources at our fingertips, as compared with decades ago. Don’t substitute someone else’s judgement for your own.
This year, I learned to test all the bolts that secure my shutter panels; when I removed one of the panels, the whole bolt assembly came out. Today I went around a retested them all, and replaced a few. Tomorrow I will do the same for those I am responsible for boarding up.
That Grand Cayman was and remains under a Hurricane Warning even as all modeling consensus tracked the system well west and out of cone of probability for those conditions, should have everybody scratching their heads about whether the thought leaders at CINWS have access to the same internet and knowledge modeling that public has. CIG should have notched threat level back slightly to Tropical Storm Warming 48hrs ago and let everyone de-pucker with gratitude. Too much ego getting in the way of truth.
Yet this comment demonstrates that some of the public (i.e. you) cannot interpret these models correctly. The cone shows the probable track of the centre of the system, not its extent. Hurricane conditions are very much a possibility outside the cone and a continued warning was sensible.
There is no ‘Notching Back’. A clearly defined set of parameters & rules remain for both warnings. Grand Cayman fitted into Hurricane Warning, not a Tropical storm warning, Bobo.
Meanwhile, McKeeva has not resigned? Tuesday should bring us a political storm.
Why is it that the official releases from CINWS are only published on Facebook?
Why is these not also on their website? There is only regular weather details there?
Why is it not sent out to persons who signed up for Cayman Prepared alerts?
WTF
The problem is that Government has too many communications chiefs (of various descriptions) but not enough actual practical communicators. They rely on the press to monitor their various ‘channels’ they do not make finding that information easy for the random public who ‘suddenly’ wants information.
Thanks CNS your site is the most updated. Last update 4 am and its now 4.42 am.
high tide 8.30. not over yet.
non event
One big Caymanian frame scene.
Weather.gov.ky is down (10pm) Are you kidding me?
To lift or not to lift is the question. Stop playing with people’s lives!!
Who you talking to Bro?
I recall hurricane Michelle from 2001. The event itself was quite minor, but the damage that she left along the waterfront on the west side was significant.
Anyone with exposed moveable valuables on west side may want to move them upstairs for the random rogue wave possibility. It was a calm and sunny day when Michelle sent a series of waves that tore up asphalt on the road, killed Turtle Farm, and sent dunes of sand across West Bay Road.
I remember calling a friend the night before Ivan and they said “ it won’t be nothing” and when I was in the shower the next morning ( I live in the US), it was being reported that the Cayman Islands was getting hit with a cat 5. I have never been in a hurricane, but just from that example, I have always learned that a hurricane has a mind of it’s own. I hope Ian stays away from Cayman and all other’s in it’s path remain safe. I have many friends and family in Florida that I also worry about. Be safe, Cayman.
Jesus loves us
He loves us so much that he sends hurricanes to destroy us?
I mean technically they were right. It wasn’t nothing.
Plenty bars still open Franz.
Dumb panic people
So basically it will be a bit wet and windy but no reason not to be at work.
So basically, you consider the probabilities posed by the NHC and CIG to be written in stone. This is a transitional storm, and it might make a new path when it transitions into a hurricane. Remember Paloma? Remember Grace, which brought us almost the same conditions?
Do the right thing. Don’t play the odds, just stay home and stay safe. It will be past us quite soon. Don’t require your employees to work until the danger has passed.
You can brag all you want after the fact that “you knew it wasn’t going to be anything”, that’s fine. You don’t have the right to endanger others.
Do the right thing.
Good post Beau
Do the right thing! You the f&$k are to tell anyone what is right or wrong
Franz Manderson and all of CIG have become a Civil Service fascist government. Controlling peoples lives and welfare with no consideration for anyone but themselves
You must be a blast at parties. You’d be the bombed guy in the corner, rambling arguments to his three-year-gone ex-girlfriend.
Your issues with governmental control have nothing to do with this weather discussion. I hope if you have employees, that you aren’t THAT guy forcing them to work with an impending storm.
Ignore him, Beau. He is just trolling. He must be. No one could be that imbecilic (unless he is one of those QAnon knuckleheads). Your post @ 1:22 is excellent.
Actual “Beau Bo” I’m the life of all parties. Your posting over and over must mean you lonely.
CIG is overreacting and Franz is an issue just as Bush. Both lots go.
dude,you’re posting on the wrong article lol
Dude are you OK, call a friend…relax
He doesn’t have any friends, 6:30. That’s one…just one…of the problems.
The probabilities are between a bit of heavy rain and a bit less heavy rain. Stop trying to kid otherwise.
We’ve ALREADY had heavy rain.
Tell us how you know — in 50 words or less — exactly what is going to happen. Probabilities aren’t certainties, and every wx met has been fooled. The models compare variables (steering currents, highs/lows/SSTs, SAL, wind shear, etc etc) and arrive at a solution.
The old salts on our islands often know better than the models. Some of those old salts use experience and observation which isn’t necessarily measurable.
The easy thing is to claim knowledge that the effects will be minimal. The probability at this point correlates with that. What if you are wrong and someone listens to you? Would that matter to you?
Best to prepare for the worst, and just sit out the two days. Easy.
As a function of proximity and probability one can assess the prospect of me being right is extremely high as is the chance of you ending up sounding like Chicken Little, given you are screaming about something for which the chance of it happening is so vanishingly ismall that it is irrational to base decisions based on it.
Forgive the pun, but in my humble opinion the local panic is overblown. Ian will be more than 100 miles to the west at it’s closest point as of 10am today and still trending west, and the Govt forecast is for 40mph winds and 1 to 2ins of rain per day.The only real risk is to condo owners on S.Church St where the developers thoughtfully removed the ironshore which was protection against storm surges.
Fool✌️
Preparation for the worst is not panic.
It is common sense.
I have not bought weekly groceries due to the crowds but not everyone is smart as you and some persons have had terrible and real experiences with hurricanes.
Stop being so judgemental.
NOW it may be, but the forecast a couple of days ago was quite different. so it looks like we may have dodged. Good to be prepared.
Probably. With a small chance the forecast is wrong and it smashes into us. No harm being ready for that.
Obviously you didn’t live here during Ivan, enough said. Better to be prepared and nothing happens then to lose your home or worse a life because you think these meteorologist know exactly where a storm is going. Just chill and when the all clear is given go about your work day.
All it takes is one tree through one person’s house and someone is having a bad day. (So a night of constant rain waterlogging the ground then that 40mph sustained wind (with higher gusts) and the tree goes crash.) As Grace showed even a storm like this is not something to be cavalier about. There is a difference between panic and preparation. Also between damage & devastation. We can be thankful we are not expecting devastation while also being empathetic for the damage a storm like this will cause some members of our community (be they me, you, or our neighbours, be they living in condos, clap-board, or cement blocks).
You are right. But the doom-mongers and workshy alliance will be out in force to say otherwise.
For the ‘hundred+’ people (26-9, 07:30) without power &/or in shelters this storm say otherwise. And still several hours of TS weather to go.
“100 miles to the west at it’s closest point as of 10am”
You’re already WRONG.