Just 57 new vaccines given after clinic closures
(CNS): With the COVID-19 vaccination clinic closed most days this week, just 57 additional people have been added to the first dose vaccine tally. The clinics are closed on Mondays anyway, but Hurricane Grace scuppered the schedule for the rest of this week as well. This means that, less than three weeks from government’s target date to have 80% of the population vaccinated, around 6,000 people will need to get both their first and second shots and another 2,000 will need to get their second if the goal is to be met.
Currently, 50,943 have had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 48,847, or 69% of the estimated population, have had both doses.
Five more travellers have tested positive for COVID-19 while in quarantine, according to Friday’s results. There are currently nine active cases among 826 people in isolation and quarantine, with three people suffering symptoms.
- Fascinated
- Happy
- Sad
- Angry
- Bored
- Afraid
Category: Health, Medical Health
The latest stats on the Delta strain of C19 would indicate that the CI government’s vaccination target is now obsolete. It was promulgated taking into account the R0 of the early outbreak strains. The Delta variant now reportedly has an R0 of around 6 to 8 depending on the study involved. This is about the same as polio. Meaning that it will require a minimum of about 83% of the Cayman population to be immune to the disease to achieve “herd immunity”. This R0 is why developed countries so very aggressively fought against polio and instituted aggressive programmes of immunization and prevention. Fortunately polio has nowhere near the propensity to mutate as does C19. Since current C19 vaccinations are not close to 100% effective in preventing acquisition and transmission of C19 infections, it will require a vaccination rate approaching 90% to achieve herd immunity. And that is not taking into account the high probability of other C19 variants already in the wild but which have not broken out into the general population. Without territory-wide lifestyle changes and strict measures in place such as mandatory clear test before flight and mandatory quarantine of all persons coming into these islands, Covid could become a big problem here. If the latest C19 data is correct, vaccinations alone hold little promise to stop C19–that is IF it is possible to stop. The current trends indicate the epidemic turned pandemic will eventually become endemic. Hopefully this will be accompanied by herd resistance to serious infection outcomes.
I guess the anti vaxxers rhetoric about the Pfizer vaccine we use being “experimental and only approved by the FDA for emergency use” will now change. Guess the FDA will juts get added to the list of agencies involved in the global conspiracy.
Have the no liability rules for the Pharma companies been lifted??
Silly comment. No drug in the world has that.
Actually reduces one’s faith in the entire medical system. FDA approval without animal studies or long term effect analysis.
No plan PACT
So now that the FDA has approved the Pfizer vaccine, will all of the hold-outs who refused to take the vaccine because it was “experimental” and not approved rush to get their shots?
Nope
No they will just blame all their other stupid uneducated reasons including god, wanting handouts, thinking the people that pay their wages should not be allowed to use holidays and vacations as an essential travel reason, bill gates micro chips and all the other idiotic reasons for not getting vaccinated. Absolute idiots. We need vaccine passports now in all shops and restaurants.
You seem to have a deep need to persecute those who chose differently than you. I wonder why.
Does anyone know the “science” behind the apparently arbitrary 80% of the population figure? What scientific reports is this figure based on? Why 80% of all the population, why not just eligible adults like most other countries? We are being held hostage to this figure, but aren’t being told where it came from or how it was determined.
The “Science “ is that the PAC wants to keep the status quo closed borders as long as they possibly can, so they came up with a percentage figure that they knew could never be reached; therefore, they can stretch the border closure out for as long as they want, possibly years, while monopolizing all air travel to the government-involved Cayman Airways, allowing the coffers to fill up with ridiculous prices on airfares. They come out ahead in every way by keeping the borders closed.
Agree, and good for them. Anyone with a modicum of sentience can see what has happened with New Zealand and Australia.
The world has changed. You sound as if you have all the answers. I wonder how you would feel if you had all the responsibility.
The science is simple – PACT says so!
Now we know that the vaccinated can become infected and spread to the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike (and I speak from direct experience, unfortunately), the only reason I can see to hold out for 80% is to limit the healthcare demands within the community. However, it strikes me that this is going to be an issue, whether we open/relax the rules now or do it in several months’ time. The only thing I can see changing over time – without mandates/employer requirements – is the availability of a vaccine for the U12s, as the pro-vaccine sector of the community will presumably look to have their kids vaccinated. Even now with Delta and the shocking images on TV of kids being hospitalized, hospitalization rates for kids are still low. So I don’t see how waiting for that dramatically changes the healthcare requirements if we wait. Long covid seems to be less of an issue with kids too (although it does happen). Cayman should be planning for a reopening without reaching the 80% together with sensible rules and (regrettably) balanced restrictions in the community, especially in schools, to control the numbers and flatten the curve. Or stay closed forever.
10:13, Do you ever look at what has been going on the last week in Florida?
Hospitalization rates for children have taken off in Florida this month.
We had better stay closed to Florida until at least the end of this year or we are headed for major trouble.
If we don’t get to a 80% vaccination rate we would be insane to open.
If Florida hospitals cannot handle all the new COVID cases then I do not know how we can handle here.
don’t ask awkward questions….. caymanian politicians don’t like that!
Ask Dr Lee. Oh wait, you cant, because the “transparent” PACT government doesn’t appear to think transparency extends to periodic press briefings where they can be questioned.
I share your angst that the CI government is very very very very poor at relating to the people here the science and logic behind their edicts. But then again, some of their policy is indicative of flat brainwaves. Case in point: the ban on airport kerbside drop off and pick up by private vehicles. Yhat is loony policy utterly lacking in science or logic. But that’s fodder for for another thread. Your question has a relatively simple answer. The science behind the 80% figure is based on the upper limit of the R0 of the strains in circulation at the time the milestone was published by our policy makers. The R0 is determined by analysis of spread in the study populations. R0 (say “R-naught”)is the basic reproduction number of the virus. Look up “R0 of Delta variant” to get more insight. Use any popular search engine other than Google for a less biased return. Where did the data come from? The same search terms will point you to several sources for transmission data. Once the efficacy of the current vaccines at preventing infection and transmission of the Delta variant is factored in, the Delta variant has made that 80% figure obsolete by some 5 percentage points, maybe more. There! You are no longer held hostage by lack of knowledge.
With a very restricted flight schedule what are all the CAL workforce doing all day to collect their full pay (courtesy of the taxpayer)?.
Time we bring back American to give us all a choice and cheaper fares.
Except that American Airlines has no plan to reinstate flights until October 15th when there is no quarantine for securely verifiable vaccinated adults. Yet we all know there will still be quarantine because we will not reach 80% vaccination rate.
It seems it will be a long time before other airlines return to Grand Cayman. 😢
Other countries will likely be changing in the manner of New Zealand and Australia by then. This has been the problem with SARS-Cov-2 since the beginning — it rapidly mutates and human system cannot evolve as quickly or efficiently.
It was a much different world in 1917-1920, and the misnamed Spanish Flu was an influenza, not a coronavirus, and our modern medicine is quite superior, and yet certain comparisons can be made, namely the economic and societal recoveries.
I think we will eventually have to open up, everywhere around the globe to ever get out of this pandemic and achieve true complete herd immunity. Yes, it will cost many lives. I believe our current strategy is likely just dragging out the inevitable. I also believe viral research should be focusing on treatments for those who contract Coronavirus, such as fluvoxamine, NAC, Quercitin, etc.
I also believe that social distancing and masks work and are effective in reducing spread of the virus, much as they were 100 years ago: https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582
Merely my opinion.
Why do you think the Spanish flu was misnamed? No one said it was a coronavirus. What do you think “flu” is short for?
It didn’t begin in Spain. You might have discovered that simple fact had your angst not outweighed your temperance.
There is quite a bit of confusion in your two assertions:
1. “This has been the problem with SARS-Cov-2 since the beginning — it rapidly mutates and human system cannot evolve as quickly or efficiently.” TRUE
2. “I think we will eventually have to open up, everywhere around the globe to ever get out of this pandemic and achieve true complete herd immunity.” ???
If C19 mutates as rapidly as you (and a large body of sound research) seem to indicate, relative to C19 the concept of “herd immunity” is nothing more than a pipe dream and impossible to achieve with the current crop of vaccines. The vaccines seem to do a poor job of preventing infection or transmission, but seem to do do a fairly good job of preventing poor health outcomes.
Where you make a strong case is your idea to focus on treatments for those who contract Coronavirus. C19 is likely here to stay for a very long time. Like its cousin viruses that cause much of the common colds, it ain’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Equally important is your idea of limiting transmission. Here is why limiting transmission is vital: The vaccinated of the world are going to be complacent about masking and social distancing since they will likely get infected by variants but may not get very ill. This gives the virus the whole world of the vaccinated as its petri dish to mutate into resistant variant superbugs which will make the Spanish Flu or Black Plague look absolutely benign in comparison.
This would be a compilation of YOUR opinion, in contrast to my own. Good for you!!
Now we are having a discussion, as opposed to just dissing each other. Wel;l; done.
BTW, I completely agree with most of what you’ve said. This is the basis of most of my views, despite my inability to properly articulate it.
Well done!
A previous poster said AA would not return until there was no quarantine for the vaccinated, presumably as – other than those with a Cayman connection – anyone else traveling from the US for a Caribbean vacation will, quite sensibly, go elsewhere.
Jamaica is on lockdown again because COVID is out of control there.
Where did all those new cases come from earlier this month.
Flights from Miami, Florida.
Don’t open up to Florida and get vaccinated people before it is too late.
Jam also has low vaccination rate. Cayman has very high vaccination rate.
There are many other places in the US that you can connect thru besides FL. Open up to Atlanta and just keep out those who come from High risk states who are unvaccinated.My state has 2nd highest vaccination rate- why should we be punished?
There’s been plenty of time to do a proper census over the last 15 months.
Hope all those imaginary people that PACT added to the population number show up for vaccines soon.
Why are you so confident that the numbers are imaginary? I concede that it is likely they are wrong but consensus before covid was always that population numbers were grossly underestimated. It’s only since it became an opening / closing issue that people have been insisting that the numbers are inflated.
I’d be interested to hear from the original poster or one of the 25 thumbs uppers why you think the estimate is obviously inaccurate.
PACT recently stated they chose the uppermost limit as their population number. Using the previous census with a scientifically and mathematically sound extrapolation would have made more sense.
Census + births – deaths + net change in with permit holders and dependents would be pretty damn close to accurate. If any of those components are not easily accessible, government has very shitty recordkeeping.
Open the borders on Sept. 9!
That isn’t going to happen and travelling is a nitemare trust me on that.
No. Admit only vaccinated persons willing to undergo 5 days quarantine.
Get rid of the quarantine. No one wants to go on holiday and quarantine. Too many other places open without it. Only vaccinated people allowed in.
So it can spread like wildfire in out islands, overwhelm our healthcare system while you take your jolly bollocks back on the plane to go home? No thanks. Quarantine needs to stay and this government needs to stop bing so stupid.
We want to go to Mia we want more flights but we dont want us visitors .it doesnt work like that.
Yes Mr. Panton needs to address the people ASAP.
Mr. Panton grow a pair and just make a date, All the holdouts will rush in if its a imitate opening!
Instead of infantile chides and bad english how about you take a helpful approach and remind these holdouts that developing the protective benefits of the vaccine is a 5 week process from the first shot and given that our risk of community spread goes up significantly after the requirement for visitors to quarrantine is dropped on October 14th, the last date that they need their first shot on is about September 7th. And they had better hope it is still available then!
Thats right people you are almost out of time. Life or death, your choice!
Perfect timing for an excuse why the goal post needs to be moved.
Once we get a tsunami of patients in our hospitals we will then get a major rush for vaccinations.
Fear of death does amazing things to people.
I see they have added 2 more BA flights for September. What about adding a few more Cayman Airways flights? Some of us need to travel to attend to family matters. I have been on a waitlist for the last 5 weeks for anything in August or September from MIA to GCM. But nothing.
The government plan for phase 3 on September 9th implies some additional flights “including a flight slot management system”, and allow travel without an explicit mandatory reason.
So why doesnt the CAL schedule reflect additional flights?
(I am so frustrated).
Because CAL took them away 2 weeks ago when the CIG probably told them to.
BUT that great Premier we have forgot to tell the public!
CAL can only add flights approved by Government. Your complaint is with the PACT and not CAL.
Just sayin.
There is nothing about flights to Miami because COVID cases are going through the roof in Florida. It would be stupid for us to open to Florida when the hospitals there are over flowing with COVID cases.
There will continue to be nothing till the idiot Governor DeSantis stops playing politics and gets serious about the virus.
I am so frustrated because we have so many stupid people here, who are still not fully vaccinated. In some ways the stupidity of the unvaccinated in Florida is in the Cayman Islands too.
Guess you cannot fix stupid.
Every adult is entitled to their own decision and you control yourself and speak for yourself and not others. Thank you.
Put money on it that the 5 new COVID cases all came through Miami.
Jamaica is on lockdown because of COVID people coming into Jamaica through Florida earlier this month.
Open up to Toronto, and maybe NYC, but keep us closed to Florida where an idiot Trump Governor is concerned more about politics than his people.
6:40, You will just have to hold off on your family matters.
Tough luck. Perhaps you are not aware that there is a full scale pandemic underway in Florida today.
Fairly certain Cuba has more inbound/outbound flights than Cayman. Sad when a communist country has more freedom.
Cuba:
Non-residents will be given a PCR test on arrival and will have to stay at a designated isolation centre (may be a hotel) until they have a second negative PCR test (the test may be on fifth day)
Cuba has Covid circulating in its community…
The only way Cayman will remain covid-free is to maintain the border closure in its current form indefinitely. Does anyone, really, think that is viable?
Yes. I do. Our economy and population are growing, not contracting. Unemployed tourism workers can be repurposed. Why do we still have large numbers of work permit holders driving busses and delivery vehicles, while a thousand taxi drivers have nothing to do and are being paid stipends?
Mandatory vaccination of travelers, and 5 day quarantine, is the way to go.
You obviously don’t work in financial services and have no clue that CIMA is doing its level best to sabotage that industry (although it will be a while before the consequences of its current approach are felt).
Where do you think Cayman gets its money without financial services or tourism?
“Where do you think Cayman gets its money without financial services or tourism?”
Depends. Is “Cayman” the people or the government? CIG gets a significant amount of dollars from both; that’s why the previous administration was so bully on the cruise lines, because of the money gained by the head count.
If “Cayman” is the people, we mostly gain via the financial services, and our own efforts. I personally don’t think we benefit much from short-term tourism. I think stayover tourism is very beneficial for Caymanian companies and eventually trickles down to the people.
If I were the supreme ruler, we would never have a cruise ship here again; the tiny benefit never outweighs the infrastructure, social and environmental detriment, imo.
Cayman Islands 663 cases of covid, 649 fully recovered, 2 deaths.
On Saturday, there will only be 19 days until September 9th. So if 6,000 people show up Saturday for their first dose, they wont be eligible for second dose until after Sept 9th.
So now that it is mathematically impossible, isnt it time for Mr. Panton to give us an update on plans?
He has no plan.
You, who has no responsibility for thousands of lives, dare infer that the measured response that has gone on with this and the previous government is “no plan”.
Our lives are an enormous responsibility. What our leaders need is support, not picking at chinks in the armour.
Our world has changed. It will NEVER be the same. Do you understand?
If he’s smart, he moves to phase 3. There is no way the government can afford all this welfare for much longer. Covid is going to be here soon and one day, we will have community transmission. Our population is better vaccinated than Israel. Open it up and control outbreaks with quarantine and contact tracing. This isn’t difficult.
This isn’t difficult? The world over is struggling to manage covid transmission but according to you the anonymous commenter, it isn’t difficult.
You obviously have all of the answers, why arent you in charge!?
How do you expect to learn anything when you are convinced you know it all?
“This isn’t difficult? The world over is struggling to manage covid transmission but according to you the anonymous commenter, it isn’t difficult.”
I may be anonymous, but I am extremely well read on both the science and new developments of this pandemic. My information comes from scientific journals and doctors.
This isn’t difficult because this virus will always be around much like the common cold. It will be impossible to eradicate due to how infectious this virus has shown to be. Why do you think flu has all but disappeared but this virus hasn’t despite humanity’s best efforts to contain it? Does it make sense to you to keep the island shut forever despite having a better vaccinated population than Israel?
All CIG has to do is follow what is working in other countries. Allow travel and the virus to come to Cayman and limit the spread through contact tracing, quarantine and use of masks (vaccinated or not, make it mandatory once the island is reopened).
Keep quarantine to 5 days for fully vaccinated with the need for a negative PCR test upon release. This alone will limit the amount of virus in the community.
“You obviously have all of the answers, why arent you in charge!?”
I don’t need to be in charge. I have a job already, I just post my opinions based on the data.
“How do you expect to learn anything when you are convinced you know it all?”
I don’t know it all. I only know what the scientific community knows. What I can tell you is this delta variant is at least 50% more infectious than the alpha strain.
“It’s actually quite dramatic how the growth rate will change,” says Dr. Wilson, commenting on Delta’s spread in the U.S. in June. Delta was spreading 50% faster than Alpha, which was 50% more contagious than the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, he says. “In a completely unmitigated environment—where no one is vaccinated or wearing masks—it’s estimated that the average person infected with the original coronavirus strain will infect 2.5 other people,” Dr. Wilson says. “In the same environment, Delta would spread from one person to maybe 3.5 or 4 other people.”
Source: https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid
The fact of the matter is this. This virus won’t go away. It’s infectivity means that even in a society with high vaccination rates like ours, it will still spread. The good news is that since most of us are vaccinated, the damage the variant will do to us will be much smaller. There is early data (linked below) that shows if you are infected while fully vaccinated, it makes you even more immune to the delta variant of the virus. Remember, our Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines only program the immune system to recognize the spike protein. The virus itself consists of 28 different proteins (which is a lot for a virus). Having natural infection either before or after vaccination appears to make people even more immune as the body is introduced to all 28 proteins instead of just the spike protein. So allowing the virus to spread (controlled as much as possible of course) among a fully vaccinated population could very well be not as big of a risk than not introducing it to the island at all. “Natural infection followed by vaccination, even more protection than vaccination alone”
https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/covid-19-infection-survey/results/new-studies
If you are as well read and aware of the latest news as your self-recommendation seems to indicate then you will know that your stats from one “Dr. Wilson” relative to the R0 of C19 is way off according to the real latest news which indicates an R0 approaching nearly twice that given by your Dr. Wilson. But you knew that, right?
Especially as the Compass has disclosed that their new population number is fictions. It is the high end outlier in the statistical margin of error.
As a statistician said to me – “the PACT’s revised methodology used by the ESO is fundamentally flawed. Confidence levels (aka margin of error) do not create a range of values allowing you to pick one. This is statistical nonsense. The correct statistical number is the 65k persons originally advised by the ESO. Proper statistical methods have been disapplied in favour of a ‘pick-a-number-any-number’ approach.”
That then raises the question of why the ESO allowed the data to be used in this way. If, and I say if, their professional integrity has been compromised for political purposes that raises important issues. Beyond that, of course, is why the political pressure was applied in the first place – why does the PACT government want a higher population figure?
CMO wanted the “safer” number I guess, and the PACT don’t have the understanding of statistics to realize you cannot pick one number out of a range – you need to look at the other man and understand the standard deviations and the confidence threshold.
6:19, How many hospital beds and ventilators are there on Grand Cayman? Would not take much for us to duplicate the Florida situation.
So why don’t the unvaccinated here get vaccinated ASAP and make life easier for all of us.
The Cayman Island Government should mandate vaccinations for all CIG employees.
How much longer are we going to allow this namby pamby approach to continue?
Are CIG employees animals or what?
How would you simply mandate for those employees and not for others?
Perhaps you think of CIG employees as you think of your “enslaved” nannies, helpers and gardeners?
Too sick to let live, people of the likes of you!
9:24, You will feel like an animal when all the Cayman Island hospital beds and ventilators are taken up and you will be told to simply stay home?
Then you will say “Where is CIG help”?
That is what is happening now in Alabama and Mississippi.
Get vaccinated and don’t be a selfish A hole. The next wave is coming so better be prepared.
Don’t give me this crap about being enslaved.
It is past time for Mr. Panton to give us an update. I fear there is no update on the plan as they never intended for the 80% to be achieved in the first place; thus they do not need to update anything because there will be no change in the plan. UGH!!!
Transparent – what a joke!