2020 Census must wait for ‘normal’ year
(CNS): The Economics and Statistics Office has said that the national census, which had been set to take place next month, has been postponed, confirming comments by the finance minister that were previously reported on CNS. Because of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Cayman Islands, the census, which usually takes place every ten years, is now set for October 2021, which, it is hoped, will be a more normal year, thereby giving a more accurate reflection of Cayman’s current demographics.
The initial reason for the postponement was the risk posed by the social interaction required to do the count, which could have exposed some 450 enumerators to people possibly infected with the virus. And even though Cayman is now at the lowest suppression level and the coronavirus is believed to have been eliminated here, the possibility of an outbreak remains.
However, even without the risk of direct transmission, a census taken this October would give a distorted picture of Cayman’s population and society because of the fallout of the pandemic this year.
The ESO said it is committed to quality surveys used for data collection, collation, evaluation and publication, and given its guiding principles, a decision to defer the census was made. The lockdown had already presented logistical challenges in the recruitment and training of enumerators, field supervisors and area coordinators, making it difficult to organise in time.
But the main issue now is how the impact of COVID-19 would affect the census results. The ESO noted the advice given by the United Nations that censuses should be conducted in ‘a normal year’ in order to collect high-quality, usable data.
“Unfortunately, the year 2020 is contrary to this guiding principle due to the pandemic,” the ESO said. “Postponing Census 2020 will not negatively hamper the time analysis of the data, as the 2009 population and housing census was postponed to 2010 due to fiscal austerity, precipitated by the 2008 financial crisis.”
Several other countries in the region that had censuses scheduled for this year have also postponed them or are planning to do so, contributing to the general consensus that 2020 is not the best year to gather data that will influence public policy and businesses for a decade.
For more information contact the Economics and Statistics Office hotline at 516-3329 or visit the ESO website.
Category: Economy, Local News, Politics
The whole idea of gathering survey data is to take a reading of conditions at that time, not engineer a propped conclusion. I suppose the fully-staffed ESO will now be paid to do nothing for another year? Not that it particularly matters vis a vis policy quality, since our MLAs can’t read their reports anyway. Let’s just defund the ESO department and call it a day.
Reasons for not doing the census
2020 is not a normal year. Check.
Politicians don’t want the facts. Check
Politicians don’t want the results before campaigning. Check
Census would provide the FACTS.
It would show that multigenerational Caymanians with both parents born here are a minority in their own country.
It would show that 2021 is the last election in which Caymanians will have control of their destiny. In 2025, the convenient Caymanians will be in control.
Maybe they should send them out in the mail. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
If Cayman is Covid free, why isn’t the census being done?
CNS: As explained in the article, because the pandemic has caused a number of abnormal circumstances – a lot of people have left, for example – which will skew the results. The data is necessary for government and businesses to plan for the future, so the results, if done this year, may not be helpful. They are waiting until next year, by which time the population and demographics will hopefully have normalised.
The explanation and CNS comment make no sense. How are you going to know the effect of the pandemic if you don’t take the census. How are you going to know how the recovery plan, if any, is working, if you don’t know where you are starting from.
CNS is merely quoting the government. We all have no idea what they are doing half the time.
CNS: I strongly suspect the ESO uses the reg’d voter list and specifically the addresses where folks have previously responded to their knocks and allowed them to complete a questionnaire. I don’t think they intentionally poll expats. While we would all like to assume the data gathering is fair and unbiased, who bothers to ask or audit what their method is, or whether it is tainted? Even with the minimal periodic effort, the CIG has shown they are not familiar with and do not rely on the data – particularly employment data, and least of all our “Premier” who in the past has quoted his own labour numbers 3-5% off ESO soundings for same periods.
They think 2021 is going to be “normal?”
These are the people providing economic guidance and advice to the government?
Anyway, where is the money coming from to pay for this extravagance?
Time for everyone to face reality.
There will be no cruise tourism at all in 2021.
There will be no regular stayover “hotel” tourism before July of 2021, if at all. We will miss next year’s spring tourism season.
Please Please Please can government start planning on that basis? Stop wasting money. Set expectations and grab the opportunities that arise.
Maybe family-centric stayover, but senior retiree stayover timing can happen in months. If we had sharper people at DOT we’d already be courting the winter snowbirds that have reluctantly ruled-out traditional southern USA state destinations due to ongoing outbreak, and are shopping alternative sunny destinations. They are multi-millionaire retirees with months and months of high-end leisure time to eat, drink, and play golf. 14 day quarantine, no prob. What are we doing? Where are the inducement packages? Where is the promotion? When will we finally court the correct market?!?
The snowbirds are being turned away. Not enough room in quarantine.
All this time they had sitting on their thumbs at home, couldn’t figure out how to do this online. Another E-Govt failure from Jokey Hew.
CNS: As noted in the article, it’s not just a question of how to do the census, it’s the fact that results taken this year would be skewed.
It seems to me that the numbers this year are very important to know. They would not be “skewed”, rather they would tell you where you are and what needs to be done to recover.