CSU early forecast calls for quieter hurricane season
Hurricane Maria, 22 Sept 2017
(CNS): Phil Klotzbach, the expert hurricane forecaster from Colorado State University, is predicting a below-average storm season for 2019 in the first of his forecasts published last week. He said the current weak El Niño is likely to persist this summer and with sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic unusually warm, fewer major hurricanes are expected to make landfall this year. Klotzbach is predicting 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, only two of which are likely to become major hurricanes.
But the climate expert also warned it only takes one storm to wreak havoc and urged people to take precautions regardless.
Outlining the details that weather experts have concluded some two months out from the start of the season, he said, “This year’s outlook is similar to what’s considered an average season …with overall activity forecast to be slightly below average.”
Klotzbach explained that during the past several months, El Niño conditions have developed in the Pacific Ocean, which tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane formation, as a result of increases in upper-level winds that tear apart developing storms.
But he warned that predicting changes in El Niño is extremely difficult, and while the conditions prevail now, “we don’t know whether it will continue through the rest of the year”. He added, “Very small changes in wind conditions can cause big changes in the ocean circulation at this time of year.”
However, Klotzbach also noted that the CSU research and other hurricane forecasters all believe there is a relatively high chance that El Niño will continue through the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic is currently slightly cooler than normal, and the far North Atlantic is much warmer than normal. “This ocean temperature pattern is typically what is observed in less-active hurricane seasons, since strong hurricanes tend to form in the deep tropics,” Klotzbach added.
Category: Science & Nature, Weather
Just make sure your Insurance is paid in full
Prepare for the worst sinerois and hope for the best! Only fools and weather predict future events are the main ones that get caught with their pants down
It’s just god’s way. god made man, man made global warming, god makes hurricanes and their effects destroy man. so regardless of whether global warming makes more hurricanes – they happen anyway so, its just god’s way of cleaning up his own mess.
Worthless guess as usual.
More active, less active..about average. It’s man made global warming.
So there’s still a chance we could be hit by a devastating storm this year? And we should still be prepared right? Just checking
As the man said, “It only takes one.”
So much for global warming?
Surely this depends on the decision of the Appeals Court this afternoon?
We’ve been spared!
For now… face palm godiots
yawn…wake me up in november….
Or just stay asleep and public monies will go to rescuing you during the next storm.