CSU ups 2024 hurricane prediction to 25 storms

(CNS): As Beryl continued on her strange, record-breaking journey on Tuesday, the hurricane experts at Colorado State University announced that they have slightly increased their forecast “and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024”. The well-known forecasting team pointed to the very high sea surface temperatures across the development region for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean as one of the main factors.

In April, the CSU Tropical Weather and Climate Research unit predicted at least 23 named storms but are now saying there could be 25, three of which have already formed: Alberto, Beryl and Chris. CSU is forecasting that twelve of these 25 storms will become hurricanes, six of them category 3 or more, including Beryl, the first of those major hurricanes. Over the remaining five months of the storm season, the team gives a 62% chance of at least one more major hurricane tracking across the Caribbean.

“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” said the team led by Philip J. Klotzbach. “We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence.”

The team anticipates a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. They said their confidence this year is higher than normal for a July forecast based on the strength and persistence of the current hurricane-favourable large-scale environmental conditions.

“We present probabilities of exceedance for hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy to give interested readers a better idea of the uncertainty associated with these forecasts. The skill of CSU’s forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches. Our early July forecast has good long-term skill when evaluated using hindcasts,” they said, noting that the model guidance continues to unanimously point towards a hyperactive season.

However, as with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.