Mixed outlook for storm season as El Niño weakens
A home destroyed by Hurricane Ivan in 2004
(CNS): Although forecasters had originally called for a lower than average hurricane season in the Atlantic again this year, the recent weakening of El Niño is making the season more difficult to call, weather experts are saying. As the season opened Wednesday, Cayman was looking at a cloudy day with a 40% chance of showers and thunder due to an upper level trough over the Northwest Caribbean. The website for the National Hurricane Center appeared to be having IT problems but other weather sites confirmed a peaceful day in the Atlantic. However, trouble could be brewing.
Some forecasters said that the window for tropical development will reopen next week after Tropical Storm Bonnie dissipated.
“We are suspicious about the area near Central America because it is in a region where we often see tropical development during June,” said AccuWeather’s hurricane expert, Dan Kottlowski.
With Tropical Storm Alex in January and Bonnie at the weekend, 2016 is likely to be considerably more unpredictable.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its forecast last week that the season would likely be near normal but said it was hard to tell because of difficulties determining whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences.
“Near-normal may sound relaxed and encouraging, but we could be in for more activity than we’ve seen in recent years,” warned NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan at a news conference last week.
From the seasonal backdrop of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation to El Niño and La Niña, forecasters are uncertain about this seasons activity.
Meanwhile, local officials here are warning residents not to be complacent, regardless of seasonal prediction, as it only takes one storm.
In his recent message about the season, Deputy Governor Franz Manderson warned people not to let their guard down. He said that storm surge is always the main threat to life and with past surges as high as 20 feet, people need to make sure they have plans to head to a place of safety. But he also urged people to prepare for the aftermath of a hurricane so they would not be dependent on others or government.
Category: Science & Nature, Weather
That’s not “a home” in your picture. That’s most of what was left of the 40 odd condos at Mariner’s Cove – you know, that prime development site on Spotts Straight.
And when the storm does hit we will have nowhere to go because there are tons of Cubans being housed in our shelters…
I hereby predict that these predictions will change again in the not too distant future. Cheque please!