Hurricane experts expect stormy September

(CNS): The National Hurricane Center in Miami is monitoring three potential storms, as hurricane experts are all calling for a stormy September. While the season got off to a worrying start, a number of factors, including Sahara dust clouds, have dampened what was expected to be an exceptionally busy hurricane season. But as we move into the peak storm period in the Atlantic, experts believe that September could be a very stormy month.

Although several storm forecasters have downgraded the overall named storm numbers for this season, they are calling for a much busier month in September. Following a quiet stretch in the tropics following hurricanes Debby and Ernesto, tropical activity is expected to intensify.

AccuWeather’s meteorologists continue to forecast 20 to 25 named storms through this Atlantic hurricane season. 

“However, in a new development, AccuWeather hurricane experts now assess that 20-23 named storms are most likely, which are fewer named storms than many other sources are predicting,” explained AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “The reason for this assessment is the long lull that has been experienced in recent weeks where there have been no named storms during what is typically a very active time of the hurricane season.”   

That lull appeared to be over when on Monday, the NHC gave two tropical storms a 40% chance of development over the next week. A tropical wave was producing disorganised thunderstorms and gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, with conditions forecast to become more conducive for development as the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea when a tropical depression could form.

Another over the far eastern Atlantic is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms and a tropical depression could form in a few days as that disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.

A third broad and weak area of low pressure just offshore of the middle Texas coast was producing disorganised showers. Activity was expected to move inland early Tuesday, and development was not expected.

Meanwhile, the weather expert at AccuWeather said a surge of Saharan dust, dry air, pockets of strong wind shear and sinking prevented tropical waves from developing in August, but people across the tropics should prepare for an uptick in tropical threats during September and beyond.  

“Now is not the time to let your guard down,” said Porter. “It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical rainstorm to create a major natural disaster. We typically see tropical activity taper off in late October and early November, but with such warm waters and conducive conditions expected, we could see tropical threats in late November, possibly even in December.

“The presence of such warm water, especially the record warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, remain extremely concerning because a significant risk remains for a storm that can take advantage of that high octane fuel,” he added.

Two hurricanes have already caused billions of dollars in damage and economic loss and tragically claimed several lives so far this hurricane season.