Forecasters predict 9 hurricanes for 2025 season

(CNS): The hurricane experts at Colorado State University are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in their early 2025 forecast released today. The team said the high surface temperatures of the subtropical Eastern Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea are the primary factor for their prediction of nine hurricanes this year and up to 17 named storms.

The much warmer water this spring is once again likely to create the conditions that will lead to another busy season.

Although there are still two months to go before the official start of the season, pre-season storms are not as rare as they once were, and these early forecasts, while less accurate than those that will come later, serve as a reminder of the potential dangers.

2025 is expected to be slightly less busy than 2024, though the storm forecasters are warning that there still remains considerable uncertainty over the storms likely to brew during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.

The odds of El Niño are quite low, which tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. This is generally associated with hurricane-conducive wind conditions. The combined hurricane-favorable signals of a warm Atlantic and the unlikelihood of El Niño has led to the call for up to 17 named storms this coming season, which starts officially on 1 June.

The scientists also believe that more than half the storms will become hurricanes, and of those, at least four will reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.  

“Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. “While the average of our analog seasons was above normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.” 

The team predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991–2020. By comparison, 2024’s hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season. The most significant hurricanes of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season were Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which combined to cause over 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion in damage in the southeastern United States.

The Cayman Islands felt the impact of hurricanes Beryl, Helene, Milton and Rafael, which battered the Sister Islands. Despite escaping the worst of these powerful storms, Cayman endured a very wet 2024, with the issue of flooding now becoming a major problem for the next administration to consider, especially in the continued and now pressing absence of a national stormwater management plan.

Another factor for Cayman to consider is the problem of rapid intensification. In recent seasons, more tropical systems have developed very close to these islands that quickly brew into powerful storms, leaving less time for people to prepare.

With potentially unpredictable weather patterns locally due to the extremely warm water in the region, all Cayman Islands residents should be prepared for bad, even dangerous, weather throughout the season, not just when a storm has formed and is being tracked.

This season, the team at CSU said there is a 56% chance of a hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean above the 1880–2020 average of 47%.  But Professor Michael Bell, one of the team’s forecasters, issued that all-important reminder: “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” he said.

Meanwhile, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said in a press release that everyone should start planning and preparing for the season.

“Climatology, weather patterns, water temperatures, and many other factors all point to yet another active Atlantic hurricane season with more tropical storms and hurricanes forming, compared to the historical average. We expect fewer named storms this year compared to last year. The total number of storms is not truly what defines a hurricane season; it is the impacts to land and populated areas. It only takes one landfall to create a devastating season,” he added. 

Climate change is making a difference to storm intensification, and AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson noted that air and water temperatures around the globe have been increasing over the past 50 years. The burning of fossil fuels is contributing to the greenhouse effect, which results in oceans absorbing and storing more excess heat.

“In just the past five years, we’ve seen water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf warm to levels never seen before in recorded history,” Anderson said.

“That extra energy can supercharge tropical storms and hurricanes. Storms that rapidly intensify near the coast can leave people with less time to prepare and react before landfall. Rapidly intensifying storms can also complicate efforts to order evacuations, setup emergency shelters, and order contraflow along evacuation routes,” he warned.