Beyond the breaking point: carrying capacity exceeded
Michelle Lockwood, CPR Cayman, writes: As the cruise berthing referendum approaches on 30 April 2025, it is crucial for the residents of the Cayman Islands to consider the concept of carrying capacity in evaluating the potential development of a cruise berthing facility. Carrying capacity refers to the maximum number of individuals an area can support without experiencing environmental degradation, adverse effects on the local community, or a decline in visitor satisfaction.
Types of Carrying Capacity
Physical Carrying Capacity: This pertains to the maximum number of people or vehicles that can physically fit into a space. For the Cayman Islands, this involves determining how many cruise tourists can comfortably co-exist in popular areas such as George Town, Stingray City, the Turtle Centre, and other attractions. Notably, Stingray City often operates at its limit, affecting both visitor enjoyment and the well-being of the marine life.
Economic Carrying Capacity: This examines the extent to which the local economy can support tourism without negatively impacting residents’ quality of life. While tourism can boost revenue, it can also lead to inflation and increased costs for locals. Additionally, the strain on public services and infrastructure, such as waste management and road maintenance, can escalate with higher tourist numbers.
Biophysical Carrying Capacity: This focuses on the environment’s ability to withstand tourism development without significant ecological damage. The construction of a cruise berthing facility may necessitate the removal of coral reefs and disrupt marine habitats, threatening species that are vital to the local ecosystem and traditional Caymanian activities like fishing.
Social Carrying Capacity: This relates to the impact of tourism on the social fabric and well-being of the community. An influx of tourists can lead to overcrowded public spaces, increased traffic congestion, and restricted access to beaches for residents. Over time, these changes can alter the character of the islands and affect the daily lives of locals.
Current and Projected Tourism Numbers
Proposals suggest increasing cruise tourist arrivals to between 16,000 and 18,000 per day, potentially resulting in 3.84 million to 6.57 million visitors annually. This is a significant rise from the current figures and raises concerns about whether the Cayman Islands’ infrastructure and environment can accommodate such numbers without adverse effects.
It is worth noting that the PWC Outline Business Case commissioned by the Department of Tourism recommended that the carrying capacity is approximately 2.1 million cruise passengers “to maintain the delicate equilibrium between cruise and overnight tourism”. We reached 1.9 million in 2019, at the height of cruise tourism.
Global Perspectives on Tourism Management
Other destinations have faced challenges with managing tourism to prevent overcrowding and environmental degradation. For instance, Texas state parks are addressing overcrowding by investing in additional land to expand their capacity. Similarly, Bermuda is exploring ways to attract tourists interested in longer stays and sustainable experiences to balance economic benefits with environmental preservation.
How many are we inviting to our house?
Imagine you have a beautiful, small, modest house, and you decide to have a party to showcase your home. You invite ten people, but soon there are more and more people till you are far beyond the limits of your home. Now you’re concerned about the stress on your beautiful garden being trampled in, your delicate treasures in your house being broken.
At what point did it get out of hand? As the host, you probably aren’t enjoying yourself, worrying about all these things. Your attention is focused on not having enough restrooms, accessibility and food to accommodate the extra guests.
This is what we mean by carrying capacity. A comfortable number of visitors to stay enjoyable for cruise, stayover and locals. This is our home, and we need to establish how many visitors we want to continue to enjoy our island.
As you approach the referendum, it’s essential to weigh the potential benefits of a cruise berthing facility against the possible impacts on the Cayman Islands’ carrying capacity. Consider how increased tourism might affect not only the environment and infrastructure but also the unique social and cultural fabric that defines the Caymanian way of life.
Remember, while the government referendum is non-binding, it will likely form a part of tourism policy. Ensure that the government understands the true will of the people. Vote ‘no’, as we cannot afford to leave this in the hands of the government to decide.
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1. If the vote for the lottery is no, it will likely result in higher fines and incarceration for people caught buying numbers.
2. Cannabis will not be allowed to be smoked everywhere. If caught, people will be liable for higher fines and/or incarceration, but like speeding, it will not appear in their police record.
3. Piers: IMO, switch to boutique cruise (smaller vessels with higher net-worth passengers) combined with excellent customer service and vibrant attractions.
“carrying capacity” is an established concept that is GIG is not aware of
Interesting read, much appreciated.
My first question when the cruise berthing facility was mentioned is how do we construct the facility without affecting the environment? Seeing the affects of dredging in the North Sound. Specifically the Seven Mile corridor, as Seven Mile Beach has always been a staple for the Cayman Islands, are we saying the current won’t carry the elements beyond the waterfront? Also, does the cruise berthing facility eliminate nature in the form of a Northwester/Hurricane etc?. In addition, what happens to our dive industry, some of which have called George Town waterfront home for decades.
Then there are questions regarding the infrastructure; is there a plan to expand the roads on the waterfront for example? Highly unlikely, as decades old structures occupy the space opposite the sea coast i.e. Kirk Freeport’s mall etc. The facility may be able to accommodate direct access from the ships, however there is a main road (North and South Church Street) that the traffic then has to join. Not to mention garbage etc.
An important thing to note is that the Government officials who support the Port tend to to speak to the “local man” (shops/restaurants, taxi operates, tour operators and such) on the ground being deprived and Caymanians being out of jobs. The reality is cruise tourism isn’t what it use to be; tourist aren’t de-boarding the ships to take advantage of a duty free cost of a Rolex valued at $30k – $40k for example. The Tourist of today tend to come with a minimum budget ($100USD for example) and the photo opps for social media. This is not to say SOME tour operators won’t benefit, as most excursions have been booked directly through the cruise lines.
The truth is government stands to make more revenue from the tourist industry than anyone else; as long as cruise ships are in Cayman waters the Government begins to collect revenue (passenger tax, environmental fee etc) equating to MILLIONS per annum. The management of said revenue is another story.
This has been the modus operandi of successive governments, as opposed to actually diversifying our economy (a consumption based one), by introducing more industries and allowing for things like entrepreneurship to flourish.
The question is, why have successive governments continued to depend on the same ole same ole? Having the knowledge they all have, which is outside the scope and remit of the “local man”….
Just my two cents
I (moronically) decided to take the south sound/waterfront route from Hurleys to Camana Bay, at around 850am on Thursday. it took me about 50 minutes to reach my destination.
From what I could see, there were 3 ships in port.
the traffic from the waterfront stretched just past sunset house on south south (south church street?).
I was late to work (for a journey that normally takes 8-12 minutes). I was embarrassed and miserable for the rest of the day.
say NO to the cruise ships (AGAIN!!!!).
also, tell KB to sit down because this country can’t take any more of his foolishness. the only person more incompetent than him is Jon Jon and that’s saying something.
ACT take note of how your wishes impact more than your personal interests.
So you chose a poor route and it is others’s blame???
Regarding the ganga vote…tourists will not put up with the foul smell on the beach, around the restaurants and stores. Most non ganga smoking people don’t want to smell it. Parents with children don’t. Adults on vacation don’t. Look to Vegas, you can’t walk down the strip without gagging on the smell.
Please do not jump the gun. No one has said people will be permitted to smoke it wherever they want. Most likely it will be limited. Remember that it will still be illegal. People can still get arrested, charged and incarcerated. The only thing is that it will not appear in their police record.
once decriminalised the dopeheads will smoke it everywhere. who you tryin’ ta kid?
Vote NO for cruise piers.
Vote YES for regulated lottery.
Vote YES for decriminalized cannabis.
NO
NO
YES
We cannot afford the staffing levels required to operate a national lottery. The market is no big enough to make it profitable. The only option is to ask some entity to operate it under a concession and Govt takes 25% of the income.
The last thing I want to see is some smiling politician handing over a big cheque each week to someone who had “won” the lottery with a ticket paid for with money given to them by NAU.
this is my vote too.
Then the NAU money will go to the numbers man instead who will get shot and take up police resources (true story btw)
Privatize it then, duh! There is no reason why it can’t be a regulated industry here and allow me to buy a scratch card in reflections.
No to everything.
Until there is a responsible government, with corresponding plans, ie. the formation of a credible independent gaming and lotto commission, a local cannabis production framework…these could be a very long wait. Cayman’s Civil Service can’t even generate auditable accounts at the moment, which is illegal. The port is a non-starter.
I’m voting no for everything except the regulated lottery.
There is no regulator.
Mac surely will be the Lottery regulator and Kenny will oversee the Weed matter.
The piers will be under their joint control as in 50/50 split.
Lotteries are little more than a legalized gambling addiction that preys on the most vulnerable among us. Its essentially a tax on those that know no better.
Absolutely not.
Numbers man smiling reading this comment
You’re right but the same logic can be applied to all illegal activities. Legalise everything or you just gift the business to the criminals…
as are hedge funds. we are all being forced to gamble everyday. how’s your pension doing?
Cons of Decriminalization of Marijuana
1. Proliferation of Substance Abuse.
Critics argue that if the consumption of cannabis for personal use will be permitted with lesser or no fines and infractions, it will be a slippery slope since people will be bolder in using it for recreational purposes. They are concerned that this can also lead to dependence on other substances that are more harmful to the health such as cocaine and methamphetamines.
2. Increase Crime Rate.
Opponents of the law claim that the use of marijuana has side effects like loss of appetite and altered thoughts. If there will be lesser penalties for its use, people will be encouraged to access and consume the substance which can lead to more people committing crimes like theft to provide for the purchase and other serious crimes. Also, this can lead to more people being curious and experimenting on its use, thus, resulting to more consumption.
3. Leads to Harm and Health Problems.
Critics of the decriminalization of marijuana emphasize the health issues that can be a result of the excessive use of the substance. Apart from it being the most abused substance in the United States, the use of marijuana has adverse effects that are immediate and long-term. People who consume marijuana can have impaired driving skills that can lead to road accidents harming not only the user but other people. Also, for people using marijuana for a long time, there can be more serious threats like heart diseases and lung-related health problems.
Although marijuana can be used for medicinal purposes, this should be a case-to-case basis since abuse can also result to medical problems. Having said this, the argument of decriminalizing marijuana should really continue and concerned legislators must ensure that it is for the benefit of the majority.
Can you say “ChatGPT”? Good job feeding it the questions though!
1. I think that point has been thoroughly debunked years ago.
2. How to say you’ve never used weed without saying you’ve never used weed.
3. I’m pretty sure coffee is the most abused substance in the USA. And I prefer being on the road with a stoner versus a drunk. At least the stoner is slow….
But why are these comments here? As far as I read the original article, it’s all about the Cruise Port and why building it would be a bad idea.
Save you Chat GPT response for the gullible.
We get it, you asked ChatGPT for “cons” and it spit out that garbage for you to copy and paste here.
1. if you support legal alcohol you’re a hypocrite with that
2. bs – it’s cannabis not crack.
3. health problems? on a plant that is MEDICALLY PRESCRIBED?
GTFOH with ya ai foolishness
Marijuana’s main damage is that it removes all sense of ambition in that it lulls the brain into a sense of cool irie…everything goin’ be alright.
So why get out of bed and do a day’s work , especially as NAU will look after you.
You’ve really never smoked a day in your life, huh? You should try it some time, if only to see how foolish and wrong you’ve been for so long.
ChatGPT loser.
Do we need any more sermons on the Cruise Port facility? Both the Pros and the Contras are eschewing a lot of bellicose statements that satisfies their egoes and the publicity which they all love. The truth is that with a proper plan with mitigating factors for both the building of the piers along with carrying capacity it can be successfully managedBy professional personnel.
This disaster and doom and gloom attitude needs to be flushed down the toilet asap for this kind of attitude if allowed to permeate our being will get us no where and most certainly if held in former years would have never allowed the progress of the Cayman Islands.
Stop playing with peoples emotions and livelihood of present and future generations you proselytes.
The obvious facts are.
1…We definitely can’t afford more borrowing.
2…We definitely don’t have room for the thousands who will be added to our already congested infrastructure.
The cruise numbers are irrelevant. The destruction involved in dredging and maintaining depth in the harbour area is a non-starter because Baird have previously outlined in an PFS that it will likely disperse suspended silica all the way up Seven Mile Beach, the West Wall, and out to sea for miles, repelling any and all types of tourism, fishing, scuba diving, and resident quality of life. The FCCA would have the Cayman Islands government volunteer to accept 350 years of debt to pay for that irreversible mistake. Hard no.
More damage and destruction is being done with all the building of the large hotels/ condos. More congestion 24/7, more trash,blocks view of the beach that brings peace and tranquillity.
The only reason I am going to vote is to vote no on the dock. It doesnt matter which politician you vote for nothing changes