Sister Islands could have near hurricane-force winds
(CNS) Updated Tuesday: Expected conditions as Tropical Storm Rafael passes the Cayman Islands have been lessened very slightly overnight, but all three islands are still under a hurricane warning. The storm is forecast to be near hurricane intensity as it passes, according the the US National Hurricane Center. On its current path, it is expected to pass closest to Little Cayman.
In a morning update, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service said Rafael was 192 miles southeast of Little Cayman and 184 southeast of Cayman Brac, moving northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
The HSA said that due to the adverse weather expected from TS Rafael, Faith Hospital on Cayman Brac will be temporarily relocated to the Aston Rutty Medical Wing from 10:00am Tuesday. To contact A&E, call 345-244-7643. Outpatient clinics, the dental clinic and the pharmacy at Faith Hospital are closed Tuesday. Little Cayman Health Centre can be reached at 345-916-5395 in an emergency.
Forecasted conditions through Friday (5-8 November) call for wind gusts up to 40-45 mph, increasing Tuesday afternoon and rainfall of up to 7.5 inches over time. A Flood Warning remains in effect through Thursday. Seas will be rough, with waves of 9-13ft expected today.
Residents should expect flooding and poor visibility in heavy showers. Mariners should stay in safe harbour until further notice, and coastal residents should prepare for high waves and possible flooding.
UPDATED 4:30pm Monday: TS18 became Tropical Storm Rafael Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Centre was forecasting that the storm could become a hurricane by the time it reaches the Cayman Islands tomorrow evening. At 4pm local time Rafael was 395 miles south-east of Grand Cayman moving north at 9mph with winds of over 45mph and higher gusts. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight and pass over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday before heading towards Cuba on Wednesday.
The NHC said steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
UPDATED 11am: At 10am this morning, Tropical Cyclone 18 had become a tropical depression, located 366 miles southeast of Cayman Brac and around 400 miles off Grand Cayman, moving north at 9mph as it picked up speed. The system is still expected to become a tropical storm later today and is forecast to pass between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman by midday tomorrow.
According to the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds are currently near 35mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected and the system could be a hurricane by Wednesday.
The system is currently forecast to bring tropical force winds of over 35mph with gusts up 74 mph and waves up to 13 feet on all three islands. Cayman Brac and Little Cayman can expect over nine inches of rain and Grand Cayman over six, with flooding in low-lying areas.
UPDATED MONDAY 7:30am: The Cayman Islands was placed under a hurricane warning at 7:00am Monday, when Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was located some 425 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. The US National Hurricane Center said this weather system is likely to become a tropical storm today, with additional strengthening expected as the cyclone heads our way.
TC18 is moving at 7mph, with winds of 35mph and higher gusts. Forecasters warn that the storm could become a hurricane by Tuesday as it passes between these islands.
The Cayman Islands could experience hurricane-force winds tomorrow and Wednesday. The system, which will be named Rafael, is expected to be a storm or hurricane as it passes between Grand Cayman and the Sister Islands.
Listen to the official warning from Deputy Governor Franz Manderson below:
ORIGINAL POST: On the advice of the Cayman Islands National Weather Service and Hazard Management Cayman Islands, Deputy Governor Franz Manderson, who is chairperson of the National Hazard Management Executive, had placed the Cayman Islands under a Hurricane Watch on Sunday afternoon.
At 4pm, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was about 515 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman, moving in a north-easterly direction at 7 miles per hour. The latest forecast track has the system moving between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman by midday Tuesday, 5 November.
The system is expected to spin into a storm and possibly a hurricane over the next few days, and Cayman can anticipate being under a hurricane warning early tomorrow morning. Schools will be open Monday but are currently scheduled to close Tuesday and possibly Wednesday when what will be Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to move through our area.
The National Weather Service said Little Cayman and Cayman Brac can expect as much as 11.5 inches of rain over the coming days. Winds in excess of 39 miles per hour, with gusts up to hurricane-force strength of 74mph, are likely, and wave heights are estimated to peak between 9 and 13 feet. On Grand Cayman, residents can expect up to six inches of rain and similar strong winds and high waves. A flood warning is now in effect for all three islands.
A marine warning is in effect for all three islands. All marine vessels should seek and remain in safe harbour. Increased wave action is anticipated across all three islands, which will likely result in property damage along some coastal regions.
As of 12pm Monday, 6 November, sandbag sand will be available at the Linford Pierson Highway in George Town, the Agriculture Pavilion in Bodden Town, West Bay and East End Fire Stations. On Cayman Brac, sand will be available in Cotton Tree Bay and Watering Place Gardens. The public is reminded to travel with their own sandbags where possible. Support for those unable to fill sandbags will be provided from 12pm to 2pm and then again from 4pm to 6pm.
Government services and schools will open on Monday, 6 November. Schools and nonessential government services will be closed on Tuesday, 7 November. An update on shelter openings will be provided on Monday.
Cayman Airways has also advised that due to the projected path of TS18 it has implemented a change fee waiver for customers who wish to change their plans to travel to, from, and between the Cayman Islands. See the airline’s web page for more information.
Residents are encouraged to closely monitor the progress of this system and are advised to continue taking stock of the status of their hurricane preparedness. For the latest and most accurate information, residents should visit the www.gov.ky and or visit www.caymanprepared.gov.ky
- Fascinated
- Happy
- Sad
- Angry
- Bored
- Afraid
Category: Science & Nature, Weather
Yippee, we gets another day off, that’s one a month now. I’ll vote for JuJu if she gives us a joliday to save us women from gettin our hair massed up.
Some of these comments are reminiscent of the complacency before Ivan. Of course mother nature does what the weatherman says… don’t she?
😄 👌🏾
“Global warming isn’t real because I was cold today! Also great news: world hunger is over because I just ate.” -STEPHEN COLBERT
The information modelling these days is much more reliable than some gut instincts. It’s possible to be prepared, without hysteria. Buying up all the toilet paper and spaghetti sauce at the supermarket is not going to wish this far away TS into a Cat 5.
Maybe this will turn The Royal Palms bar to a swim up bar, problem solved.
There is no bar left; it is not safe to swim on their former beach – all gone due to the SOLID walls built north and south and the more intense weather patterns that cannot be altered – mother nature rules.
On the plus side, at least we have a stable functioning government.
Valencia, horrific scenes…., 200 dead and 2000 missing….
Crowds… they support policies of permanent growth, the reason why so many houses are build in dangerous areas.
My sympathies to the Spanish people, and R.I.P. to the victims
230 now – many more still missing – total devastation with roads – railways and communication down – cars stacked up all over the place – no power or fresh running water –
Wishing you all safety on The Cayman Islands as hurricane Rafael rages past – xx
Flake in chief JuJu doesn’t need much of an excuse to close schools again on the fleeting prospect of 2 inches of rain and blustery weather. This sets a fine example to students on how not to run the education system, every rain rain day is a skive-off day, and likewise for civil servants. Absolutely pathetic, the sooner this bible bashing throwback is kicked off her high chair the better for Cayman.
Don’t be an ijit. There may have been poor decisions to close school in the past but a TS or Hurricane passing pretty much directly over us is a good reason. Don’t take silly risks and put thousands of cars on the road in the midst of a potentially serious storm.
alarmist nonsense that ignores facts and reliable information from experts.
CNS: You should probably take your own advice and seek out the latest expert predictions instead of sounding like a tool. See here. We have recently seen an example of a storm picking up speed and size very quickly and slam into Florida. Those of us who were on the Brac during Paloma remember how quickly and unexpectedly the predictions changed from the tropical storm to a cat 4 hurricane.
Tell them CNS. The storms coming up from the south towards the end of the season are often the most unpredictable and dangerous.
Ask thousands in Valencia who got caught in their cars for nobody expected an annual volume of rain in 8 hours.
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition
Sympathies go out yes. But that’s what you get if you build on a flood plane. The geological record most definitely shows this has happened many times. Most people expect their government to warn them and then help them as they have forgotten how to think for themselves.
We love you, CNS
Sometime
As one of the only media houses on the island that isn’t clearly bought and paid for, my love is unconditional.
that sounds like the condition
“tomato/pedantry” as they say.
In 2022 Ian was heading towards Tampa, then it suddenly took a sharp turn and hit Fort Myers as Cat. 5.
Ask people in North Carolina if they expected apocalipsis.
hope you will apologise to the ‘tool’ after tomorrow.
CNS: Not a chance. If it turns out not to be as bad as predicted, like everyone else I will breath a sigh of relief. Sensible people prepare for the worst, knowing that these things can get very bad very quickly. Right now, NOAA is predicting hurricane conditions in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, so whatever the actual outcome, dismissing this as nothing is the height of foolishness.
I loved the Tool comment
Ijits are made to be weeded out by natural selection. In other words, it’s natural population control. It’s not a process we need to be trying to change. Besides Cayman has more than its fair share of them.
You have never held the responsibility of many people in your hand. YOU and ME are free to apply our armchair analysis of the weather and do as we see fit, as long as we are fully willing to accept the consequences of our actions.
Government doesn’t have that luxury. They MUST take a worst case and advise everyone to stay in and stand down.
Remember Wilma? Remember Paloma? From Cat 1 to Cat 4 or 5 in a matter of an hour or two. Radical changes in tracking. Sometimes people like you act like the forecast lines are so set you could walk outside and see them overhead. (Oh look! See the bright green one? That’s the GFS!!!)
North of us, they have snow days. We have storm days. Those are days in which governments should protect their constituents, schools should close, and we should either be out helping others, or helping ourselves at home. If you can, if your work and other responsibilities allows it, stay HOME.
I hedge to disagree, we have become soft, wokery has taken over. Years ago this situation would have been taken as a normal event and CIG would have been more balanced in their approach to dictating mass closures. I’m quite surprised the current dwindling leadership hasn’t already called for a total ban on liquor sales in consort with all the closures.
Define “wokery” in this (or any) context for the rest of us, please.
Tropical rain in the tropics! Whatever next?
yawn…the usual hysteria…25mph winds are all that is forecast.
And a mere 40 mile jog to the left of forecast track would mean what, for Grand Cayman, oh wise one?
even less wind for gc. all weather is north east quadrant.
You have confused your left from your right, and your West from your East.
Please avoid navigating, giving directions, or operating on anyone.
thumbs down to facts???…that is the world we live in
CNS: NOAA is predicting 39-73mph winds. Facts.
At no point has NOAA indicated a forecast for Grand Cayman of anything more than 35kt winds. Rather than publish the actual forecast with a warning that this is only a forecast and everyone should be prepared, the CI Wx service chooses to make up their own “facts” to justify their actions. I challenge you to find any credible source giving a forecast over the past 2 days that shows Grand Cayman expected to get “39+ winds with gusts to 74mph”. The current NHC wind field forecast is showing a 55% chance that we might experience 1 min sustained winds equal to or exceeding 34kts. As of midday today, most credible Grand Cayman forecasts are showing 20-23kt winds for a few hours tomorrow with rain showers.
No smart-ass CNS response this time?
CNS: You mean like pointing out that NOAA is now saying that Rafael will pass the Cayman Islands as a hurricane, having formed into one after passing Jamaica? No. It’s a pointless, dull conversation. Sensible people will prepare. The dopes won’t.
actually on the same day you put this very stupid comment down, you can check the archive of what NOAA forecast. that being said we recorded 80+ mph over the past 24 hrs. try to let the experts do their job and not proof your lack of knowledge in the area.
At the time of your post. It has gotten higher in the AM summary.
Quick, press the irrational panic button! Close the schools, shut down the civil service!
What difference does it make to you? Go ahead, go about your day normally, grumble to people around you how silly we all are. What does it matter? Serious question. I don’t see what difference it should make to YOU, if people want to take more storm precautions than you do.
Close the schools, shut down the civil service!
We don’t need a hurricane to do that. It’s a perfectly reasonable request on its own. Neither is functioning properly.