Experts improve predictions as quiet season opens

Hurricane Ivan 2004

(CNS): With just 12 named storms expected this Atlantic hurricane season and improvements in prediction paths by experts, residents are less likely to find themselves taken by surprise over bad weather but that doesn’t mean the Cayman Islands won’t see another Hurricane Ivan and residents are being warned to remain prepared.

As the sun came up over calm seas and relatively clear skies locally on Monday morning at the start of what is expected to be another quiet season, it’s easy to get complacent. Forecasters anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be “one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century” — but it only takes one hurricane.

Experts say that while predicting the likely route a storm will travel has improved significantly, they are still not able to predict the intensity of tropical storms with great accuracy.

“On tracks, we’re definitely 20 to 25 per cent better than we were in the Katrina timeframe,” Frank Marks, director of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, said recently. “On intensity, we’ve moved the bar from no change in our forecasts to some change.”

In the past 10 years, the track error at landfall has dropped from about 175 miles in 2005 to just under 150 miles in 2014 for forecasts three days before landfall. The track error two days before landfall is down from about 125 miles in 2005 to about 100 miles. The 24-hour forecast error is down to about 50 miles, according to statistics discussed by the National Hurricane Center’s James Franklin at a conference in April.

Officials urge residents not to get too complacent by forecasts of low activity as even in the quietest of seasons as it takes only one major storm to cause massive devastation.

In the past 10 years, the track error at landfall has dropped from about 175 miles in 2005 to just under 150 miles in 2014 for forecasts three days before landfall. The track error two days before landfall is down from about 125 miles in 2005 to about 100 miles. The 24-hour forecast error is down to about 50 miles, according to statistics discussed by the National Hurricane Center’s James Franklin at a conference in April.

Intensity errors have seen a sharp decrease over the past 10 years, from 20 per cent error in wind speed to 10 per cent. But Franklin warned that there were wild swings in the intensity errors during the past five years, and that environmental factors around storms in 2013 and 2014 may have affected the predictions.

There were no storms on the horizon Monday 1 June, the official start date of a season predicted to see 12 storms, six hurricanes and just three major hurricanes. Tropical Storm Ana formed off the coast of North Carolina last month; the next storm will be Tropical Storm Bill.

Meanwhile, the local weather service is forecasting some heavy rain for later this week. Weather charts indicate a tropical wave southwest of the Cayman area moving west at 15 knots. We can expect an increase in cloudiness and shower activity as the wave moves over the western Caribbean and by Wednesday showers could become heavy with localized flooding.

For details on hurricane preparations visit Hazard Management Cayman Islands.

To keep on top of the weather visit www.weather.ky and the National Hurricane Center