Port OBC: fourfold increase in car imports by 2084
(CNS): The team of consultants who are compiling the Outline Business Case for the new cargo dock for Grand Cayman are making the case for the imperative of building one using projections for imports that would see two and a half times more vehicles shipped annually to the Cayman Islands in fifteen years and four times more in 60 years.
Two public meetings were held last week to present their findings so far, hosted by the Ministry of Tourism and Ports — the ministry that utterly failed to achieve anything towards implementing a modern, efficient public transport system when transport was included in the portfolio in the first two years of this administration. It has similarly failed to materialise now transport is coupled with the planning ministry.
The consultants included representatives from Stantec, a Canadian architectural and engineering company that designs ports; accounting firm KPMG; sustainability consultants, engineers, and designers Royal HaskoningDHV; and Cayman-based project management and quantity surveying company BCQS.
The presentations at the public meetings made it clear that the report was compiled on the basis that a new port would be built, and its aim was to present various options as to where it could be located.
The team, which based the projections on a population increase over the next 50 years to 250,000, did not appear to factor into their calculations any improvements in public transport, concluding that 20,300 more vehicles will be arriving each year by 2084 than in 2023. The remit of the report did not seem to cover whether the island and its roads and infrastructure could handle this increase.
According to the projected figures, there will be no slowing down of construction either. The amount of cement imported annually is predicted to jump from 58,000 tons to 100,000 tons over the next 15 years. By 2084, this figure will be 157,000 tons each year.
The amount of aggregate imported is expected to increase from 357,000 tons in 2023 to 540,000 tons in 2039. However, if the new cargo port is built at this point, as much as 1.5 million tons could be imported each year, increasing to almost two million tons by 2084, according to the OBC figures.
Harold Westerman from Stantec, who made the presentation at the two public meetings, explained that right now, the only aggregate that is imported is rock and sand for producing concrete. No construction fill is imported because the existing port does not have the capacity to handle it. He said “reports had been produced” that the island should be switching over to imported aggregate and that “stakeholders” had told them that the quarries “primarily at Breakers” are reaching capacity.
“If the port had the capacity to receive construction fill… then that industry would bring construction fill in through the port,” Westerman said, explaining the two different possible figures for 2039.
The number of cargo containers arriving was 37,200 in 2023. This is expected to almost double in the next 15 years and almost triple by 2084. However, how the islands will deal with all the trash generated by the imported goods is still a major question, as successive administrations have been incapable of solving the major issue of waste management.
See the cargo forecasts below and the full presentation in the CNS Library.
Watch Thursday night’s meeting on Facebook.
Watch Wednesday night’s meeting on CIGTV below:
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Category: development, Local News, Politics
Of Course, they are!
And these “projections” are RIDICULOUS. Show me HOW they came to these projections.
Once they do this, I promise you the numbers won’t make Any sense – especially, if Government does their job!
We’re on the verge of seeing Caymanians lose their voice, homelessness is real, housing issues are Seriously bad, traffic issues are terrible Annnd we want to be more environmentally safer / better??? How can you do that with more people? More trash? More traffic? More waste? Less jobs and Less opportunities.
Just ask Kenneth who owns the property in breakers and his affiliation with them. That should answer all the questions. This also questions the extension of the airport.
wa kinda bogus rationale about cars kenny bway stop the hunda fits nah. dem car companies nah support ya so raise the duty dem. boy ona UPM really realy fo foo.
speak English please and then PERHAPS we could understand
There will always be a glass ceiling for Caymanians as long as government gets the bulk of their revenue from work permits and import duties.
Worth noting – these are independent projections basically under the assumption that there is linear growth at 2% for the next 60 years and that consumption and imports will match that growth –
which there won’t be based on the reality of our position in the Caribbean and the prevalence of hurricanes we will certainly have years where thousands if not tens of thousands of expats leave due to storms and over the next 60 years we are almost certain to see another hurricane at or surpassing the strength of Ivan which could easily knock our population down for years (due to expats leaving and not returning during the cleanup and recovery period)
The projections the consultants cooked up also don’t account for policy changes in relation to both immigration and vehicles – such as a restriction of importation of vehicles or the limitation of vehicle ownership which are possible in that period
Also small quibble but the title seems to me to imply the OBC is out but the OBC has not yet been finalised or published, these public consult meetings are one of the final steps in the OBC and will be reflected in the OBC
CNS: Fair point. I’ve changed the first sentence a little, which I hope makes it clear.
Take a look at all the foreigners running and influencing the government at every point. Fox’s guarding the henhouse, i mean sometimes i feel like we are starting to live in a very corrupt third world hole in the wall, where the wealthy business owners know the government are full of imbeciles and eager to put pen to paper without reading the fine print.
Ltd da Unboozler.
If you Caymanians dont start voting out the proven maniacs who push these insane ideas you are going to be living in a very scary country in 10 years. This is for certain.
Replacements?
Control imported population and provide a proper bus system!!!
In Bermuda, I believe you need to be a homeowner to own own one car. If you choose to eventually buy a new car, they cut the old car up and dispose it. The only reason we have so many cars on Grand Cayman is the Government! The DUTY! Think about it? They need the funds for all their “grandiose ideas”!
We need to implement certain import restrictions as soon as possible but it may well be too late.
None of the expert analysis or projections takes into account future climate change & resultant environmental factors, which if come to pass, would render islands and many countries coastal regions uninhabitable:
AMOC Collapse: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing/index.html
It was once thought that the AMOC would stay stable for a few centuries, so for scientists to now talk in terms of nearer decades should be of concern to anyone living at, you know… mere feet above sea level.
Warnings ignored at peril.
Right on schedule for the historic warming and glaciation. We’re yet at the end of the warming trend, as per the GISP2 data and Antarctic ice cores.
From your link: “In the decades after a collapse, Arctic ice would start creeping south, and after 100 years, would extend all the way down to the southern coast of England. Europe’s average temperature would plunge, as would North America’s – including parts of the US. The Amazon rainforest would see a complete reversal in its seasons; the current dry season would become the rainy months, and vice versa.”
The biggest and most immediate threat to Cayman from climate change are the hurricane insurance actuarial tables for the Caribbean risk area we are married to. At some point soon, there’s no insurance coverage, bank mortgages are called, and the Finance Sector relocates. The population then contracts to <25,000.
Totally agree! My home insurance has doubled in 2 years. This will surely impact the housing market.
There are parts of the US where home owners are not able to get insurance, and the US gov has had to step in to assist. If that happened in Cayman it would be disastrous.
The way our risk profile is calculated and tied to other wider areas, has to be revised. And, I do not believe that our neighbours on other islands are paying the same % rate premiums that we are!
Well observed. One only has to look to the situation in Florida that has arisen due to repeated hurricane & tropical storm impacts over recent years.
Many homes & condominiums are now un-insurable. Banks won’t lend to buy them, so areas have market’s a flood with homes that nobody will purchase. The knock-on effect then trickles down to other infrastructure, society issues.
These guys should all be fired.
Some combination of actual public transit, WFH/anywhere and autonomous driving will greatly reduce the needs for vehicles.
It’s almost as if the people who are presenting a report that “assumes a port will be built” are trying to justify the building of said port.
I wonder why that is?
Of Course, they are!
And these “projections” are RIDICULOUS. Show me HOW they came to these projections.
Once they do this, I promise you the numbers won’t make Any sense – especially, if Government does their job!
We’re on the verge of seeing Caymanians lose their voice, homelessness is real, housing issues are Seriously bad, traffic issues are terrible Annnd we want to be more environmentally safer / better??? How can you do that with more people? More trash? More traffic? More waste? Less jobs and Less opportunities.
Stop the importation of cars
Only allow Caymanians to own cars
That would be awesome, I’d by 6-10 and rent them. Never have to work again. Would kinda be like taking out permits for people, but not having work. I can get them to pay the fee and give me part of their earnings for living in my shed
The NRA needs to deliver the bike lane infrastructure we already paid for from 2015.
Farcical. Government must get control and PLAN for out future, including by getting our population under control.
I would correct that to say us, the people, must get control of our Government.
They are a bunch of uneducated people who have no clue of what they are supposed to do and how to do it.
And have employed experts from Jamaica, the Eastern Caribbean and Canada who bilk us, and sell us stuff we don’t want or need, all while ignoring people here who may actually know what they are talking about.
12:29, Yes, we have such a brilliant group of Caymanian politicians who know what they are talking about. 🤡 🤡
So much brilliance here it is simply overwhelming.
We are a brilliant but totally delusional people.