Experts agree 2024 could be record storm season
(CNS): The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Sunday and many weather experts agree that this season will not only be busy but is likely to break records as a number of factors converge. In its final pre-season forecast, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said that, as one of the strongest El Niño events ever observed nears its end, there will be a quick transition to La Niña.
This climate pattern tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity, while the abundant oceanic heat in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storms.
And that’s not all.
NOAA has said there is a potential for an above-normal West African monsoon this year, which can produce easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms. Plus, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear and also minimise ocean cooling.
“Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane,” NOAA stated in a press release. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, with as many as 13 becoming hurricanes, while up to seven of those could become major Category 3 or higher hurricanes.
John Tibbetts, director general of the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, has warned that the forecast is for “one heck of a season” and is urging people to prepare. He said the very high sea surface temperatures, which are at record levels, are of significant concern given the impending transition to a La Niña.
Tibbetts said it may take a while for the storm season to get going this year, given the current very dry conditions, but when it starts, it could be very busy. However, it is not known where the main activity will be, out in the Atlantic or in the Caribbean, where the ocean temperatures have been breaking records.
Last month, Colorado State University‘s Tropical Weather & Climate Research team said they anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Meanwhile, in their pre-season review, forecasters at AccuWeather highlighted the risk this season of “rapid intensification”. This is especially dangerous because the public has less time to prepare and it catches people off guard.
The meteorologists said they “are greatly concerned that conditions over much of the basin could have a significant number of storms that undergo rapid intensification”, compounding the risk to lives and property. Rapid intensification is when a storm gains significant strength in 24 hours or less. This can affect how fast a tropical storm becomes a hurricane, or a hurricane jumps one or more categories in less than one day.
The record temperatures across the area of the Atlantic where storms usually begin is of particular concern for 2024. AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said that they “continue to notice incredibly warm waters over much of the key development areas in the Atlantic”. He explained that when warm water is combined with low wind shear and abundant moisture, the ingredients for rapid intensification are in place.
The minimum temperature threshold for tropical development is about 80°F, and many areas of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic are already hotter. Sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin have never been higher in recorded history for this date than they are right now, DaSilva said. Generally, the ocean will continue to be warmed by the sun through August.
“The fear is that as we enter the heart of the tropical season — from late August to early October — the sea-surface temperature may continue to eclipse last year’s record-breaking season,” DaSilva said. “The warmer the oceans are, the more favorable the environment will be for tropical development and rapid intensification.”
DaSilva pointed to a patch of water here in the western Caribbean, near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, where 80-degree water reached a depth of 600 feet earlier this month.
Appearing on Radio Cayman on Thursday, representatives from CINWS and Hazard Management Cayman Islands urged people to be fully prepared to reduce stress and concern about what could be a very busy season for the Cayman Islands. Tibbetts said the weather service will monitor all systems throughout the season, and work with HMCI to operate at maximum efficiency to get out the most accurate information possible, no matter how great the threat.
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Category: Science & Nature, Weather
As of May 2024, there have been 1,727 tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm intensity, 960 at hurricane intensity, and 333 at major hurricane intensity within the Atlantic Ocean since 1851, the first Atlantic hurricane season to be included in the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record.
There’s been around 32,000 days of hurricane season.
Play the odds. Build it and they’ll come.
Thoughts and prayers
Unnah nah seen all dem white buttaflies…?
Storms coming Bobo.
I wonder how much our population will decrease once we receive a bad hurricane
People,make note of the channel on YouTube:
Brian Shields Mr.Weatherman.
The best Meteorologist that covers the entire Caribbean.
He is always spot on and the channel to go to on a daily basis throughout this Hurricane Season.
We’ll be fine, just pray that the other people suffer the storms and not our beautiful islands. That’s the lord i believe in, save us and take your wrath out on our neighbors. Hallelujah
Wow, what a very Christian comment.
Cayman we need to prepaid. All the indications are visible for all to see. Record breaking temperatures. Long droughts. Adverse weather changes. All indicates that something big is brewing. We may not be impacted but someone somewhere will be impacted. Let’s support and assist each in anyway we can.
I can’t recall any hurricane season in the last ten when they haven’t said its going to be very active season. like a stopped watch they’ll be right eventually I guess.
A simple google will show that what you are saying is false. Seriously google the hurricane forecast for the last 5 years and post the one that is the same a this forecast. Theae idiotic comments like yours don’t help anyone and they aren’t even factual.
The cost of living is making storm season harder to prepare for this year for many.
Some money saving hacks
Progressive Distributors sell cans of fish, beans, bottles of Gatorade, packets of cookies etc much more cheaply than buying individually in stores. They also sell bags of roti flour so you can make roti/chapatti and cook in a pan on a camping gas stove. Consider teaming up with friends and neighbors to bulk shop and share. Don’t forget an old fashioned can opener.
Tap water is drinkable and safe (it’s reverse-osmosis filtered). Thoroughly wash out empty juice and store water bottles, fill them 70% full and keep in your freezer. They will help to keep the freezer cold, and as they defrost you can safely drink them and save money on buying bottled water. If a storm approaches, fill your bathtub and cover with a plastic sheet or shower curtain.
CostULess sells head torches with LED batteries, these are a godsend so you have light wherever you are. Your strings of LED Christmas lights use very little electricity and can be run off a rechargeable power pack.
Good luck everyone and let’s hope the storms miss us all and we get through this together.
Cayman needs another Ivan level hurricane to remind all the Johnny come lately who have built all these monstrosities right on the waters edge why we had those set backs they complained about.
Driving along the coasts and seeing all these gaudy high end apartments with massive underground parking I cant help but think of how all those Audis, BMWs and Mercedes will look floating and it makes me smile.
You smile because you’re badmind.
CUC has not given consumers a Time of Use (TOU) rate sheet based on consumption phase of day, ie. on-peak, mid-peak, off-peak rates. There are many household tasks that can run overnight: like dishwashers, laundry, dryer, car charging – that could be clocked during off-peak hours with an appliance timer setting. There is no responsible economic incentive to set that timer to run these events later, when there is no other rate than monthly kW/h. Anywhere else, there are at least on and off peak rates with a discount of 40% for off-peak consumption. Let’s talk about that OfReg.
such a shame that cuc put profits above Cayman and decided not to put all the lines underground after Ivan. they have of course only had 20 years now to change but they never will.
The CIG renewed the transmission license. CIG could have taken ownership and put them underground and leased this infrastructure back to CUC.
shame on our regulators and leaders as well. i guess the dividends and their shares mean more.
Be Alert!
Cayman needs Lerts
But just one lert. More than that is excessive.
The blown out high rises on 7MB will be great paintball courses, but I call dibs on penthouses.
El Nino has driven the jet stream northward, which brings higher temps here, and higher seas surface temps.
People I talk with the last few days want to blame the government for this. WTF!!!! Whether the government can rally after the next devastating hurricane remains to be seen, but we ALL have a responsibility to stock our own goods, create systems for boarding up our own houses, and establish safe places to shelter in the event of imminent tropical cyclones.
There is already plenty of hurricane ‘fuel’ out there. We need to personally prepare, and not count on government to save us. They will do what they can, but we need to be responsible for ourselves.
I have a concern that the next devastating hurricane here will show that the insurance companies cannot rise to the challenge. I dearly hope to be wrong. We have to stick together, everyone. Stock up on that which you can eat. Stock up on water and the supplies which might help you. Be safe everyone.
I’m ready to burst out sleeping.
No one has to worry because our great Premier and her fantastic government have lots of money to rebuild Cayman bigger and greater should any storms hit us.
Your political miasma will not help any of us. Get up off your ass and do for yourself.
Thank God we have such a reliable radar System.
Believe me this season is going to be very different. Not scaring just look around the world and temps. Be prepared cayman
What we do I know is that it will either be partly cloudy or partly sunny.
Well you quite frankly these scientists say this every year. I bought my kite 🪁 and still waiting for these winds to show up. Hurricanes are as unreliable as tinder dates quite frankly.
Take care this year. There are variables apparent which indicate an increase in tropical cyclones. I hope you aren’t one of those people whose hurricane response plan is to declare, “dat not comin’ here!!!”
20 years since Ivan. 20% of dwellings destroyed , 70% with major damage. One third of vehicles destroyed. Months without power.
Two deaths, but only because the worst came through during daylight. Would have been much more in the dark.
For those who weren’t here, some photos to scroll through. It was hopefully a once in a lifetime experience.
https://caymanmarlroad.com/2022/09/11/surviving-hurricane-ivan-18-years-ago/
Amazing how people who live on Grand Cayman have such short memories.
Hurricane Ivan was a total disaster here but majority of people seem to forget that basic fact.
there’s a reason the same politicians get voted in time and time again.
Having lived through Ian in 2022, one of the most unpredictable, long lasting, Cat.5 hurricanes, I recommend you take this forecast seriously.
We are still recovering, rebuilding and repairing for there were shortages of everything, from construction materials, appliances to licensed contractors. Prices for windows replacement/ hurricane shutters have gone up x 3 times.
I can only imagine what it would look like in Cayman if you get Cat.4-5 direct hit.
We have had.
Hurricane Ian, was not, if ever, a Cat 5 until it approached Florida. Still, I take your point well; a Cat 2 hurricane that ‘sneaks’ up on people is completely devastating. Moreover, every time we get a hurricane, it removes the worst of our structures, and outlines how we have slipped backwards since the previous tropical cyclone.
We HAVE had it. Take a look here: https://caymanmarlroad.com/2022/09/11/surviving-hurricane-ivan-18-years-ago/
We need back-to-back Cat 5 storms to wash away the dirty politicians and developers that are destroying this country.
You are a horrible human being to wish that upon your people. Maybe they aren’t your people. If so, that makes you an even worse human being to wish it upon people whom you don’t relate to, but welcomed you into their territory.
Nature will only have a chance to thrive if we eliminate the greed and corruption.
back to work cat5 will usher in another wave of unscrupulous people. after Ivan every con man was suddenly a roofing and interior renovation contractor.
5.50 You forgot the ilported riff-raff that now controls our streets.
Thanks for cheering me up..
You have to cheer yourself up Skippy. You can’t count on reality to do it for you.
I’d like to see meteorologists predictions for massive hailstorm events recently witnessed in United States & Mexico.
All I can say is be prepared for ANYTHING as we roll the dice into another dangerous storm season.