Crowded fields favour status quo
(CNS): With 121 days to go before the General Election in May, so far just eight incumbents face challengers. Sixteen people not in office right now have declared their intent to run, but with Nomination Day still two months away, voters can expect to see many more throw their hats into the political ring. However, with the party system brought almost to its knees after two coalition governments, a packed field of lone candidates may serve to help the incumbents.
According to a spokesperson for the Progressives
The People's Progressive Movement (PPM), also known as the Progressives, was founded in 2002 in response to the launch in 2001 of the United Democratic... More, all of their incumbent representatives will be contesting the seven seats they currently hold. This is despite recent talk that Deputy Premier Moses Kirkconnell
Moses Kirkconnell (PPM): Cayman Brac West and Little Cayman MLA, Deputy Premier, Minister of District Administration, Tourism and Transport (DATT). Biography: Kirkconnell was first elected... More has been considering ending his political career.
Although the party has yet to set a date for its national congress, where candidates for the rest of the seats they plan to contest will be announced, it is unlikely that the PPM will mount challengers in all of the other twelve seats, given that five of them are held by members of the current administration.
There is also talk that some incumbents on the opposition benches may be joining the PPM before Nomination Day. With the opposition said to be crumbling and no sign of them mounting a full platform to oppose the government, the individual members of the official opposition appear to be seeking new alignments.
Ezzard Miller, the independent member for North Side, is facing challenges from two independent candidates and expecting to face another from the PPM. Nevertheless, following the launch of the Cayman Islands People’s Party
The Cayman Islands People’s Party launched in November 2020. Ezzard Miller, the current MP for North Side, is the movement’s interim leader but he is... More (CIPP), he is hoping to create a platform of several aligned candidates in other constituencies, so he can offer a potential alternative to government.
Meanwhile, Wayne Panton
Wayne Panton: Candidate for Newlands. He was Minister for Financial Services, Commerce and Environment (2013-2017). Biography: Panton successfully ran as a PPM candidate for one... More, Osbourne Bodden
Osbourne Bodden: Candidate for Bodden Town East. Biography: Bodden served two terms in government under the People’s Progressive Movement (PPM), first as a backbencher (2005-2009)... More and Heather Bodden
Heather Bodden: Candidate for Savannah. She currently manages Wayne Panton's Savannah/Newlands Community office. Biography: Bodden served as a representative for Bodden Town from 1995 until... More are looking to expend the Community Creates Country
'Community Creates Country' is the campaign theme of a group of Independent candidates, namely Wayne Panton, Osbourne Bodden and Heather Bodden, who are running in... More platform they are running on to at least seven to offer a viable group that could lead a government.
On the streets and on social media, voters appear to be calling for a significant change in the political lineup but that is an unlikely scenario. Given the size of constituencies in the Cayman Islands, those that have more than three candidates will lean towards incumbents retaining their seats, as the opposition against them is divided.
For example, although many voters in Prospect who ticked the box for Austin Harris were disappointed by how quickly he made U-turns on his campaign promises, particularity over the cruise port project, his chances of re-election remain high. He faces competition from Sabrina Turner, Dr Frank McField and Michael Myles, which means that opposition to his re-election will be split in three ways, or even more if other candidates join the field.
In 2017 Harris received 466 votes, or 54.63% of the turnout, while running against a popular PPM candidate. But now he is aligned with the ProgressivesThe People's Progressive Movement (PPM), also known as the Progressives, was founded in 2002 in response to the launch in 2001 of the United Democratic... More, so if he retains just some of his original vote count and the PPM members throw their weight behind him, this could prove a tough race for challengers.
This situation is similar in a number of other constituencies where the field is likely to grow. West Bay South, George Town South and GT West are all likely to see a number of candidates challenge the incumbents, but the more candidates there are, the greater the incumbent’s chances of re-election, especially if the current coalition government holds throughout the campaign.
Voters may be clamouring for some major political scalps this election but it is almost certain that some of them will be returning to the House of Parliament in May.
There are still no challengers to McKeeva Bush
McKeeva Bush (CDP), West Bay West MLA Speaker of the LA, Leader of the Cayman Democratic Party. Biography: Bush is the longest serving member and... More but anyone hoping to unseat him from West Bay West will have a big mountain to climb, as he secured well over 70% of the vote in 2017. Despite his recent conviction for beating the female manager of a bar during a boozy night out last year, constituency support for the veteran politician remains solid.
Alden McLaughlin
Alden McLaughlin (PPM): Red Bay MP, Premier, Minister of International Trade, Investment, Aviation and Maritime Affairs (MITIAMA). Biography: McLaughlin has been a member of the... More also remains unchallenged in his Red Bay seat at this point, though that is likely to change very soon. A flurry of candidates are expected to declare but this will only serve to support the current premier, who secured over 57% of the vote at the last election. Despite significant criticisms McLaughlin garnered much good will over his handling of the pandemic, as he held his nerve over the lockdown and continued border closures.
While the current field of challenging candidates appears small at this point, some four months from Election Day, there are numerous potential candidates who have not yet declared their intentions. Many are old faces who have fought and won, and fought and lost, many times before, while others are completely new candidates to the political fray.
During the next four months CNS Elections will be following the declaration of candidates and looking closely at their chances. We will be paying close attention to the strategies and the fate of the incumbents as well as analyzing the policy issues of the day.
We will also be following how lone candidates plan to fulfill campaign promises without aligning themselves with others, and pressing them to say, before voters mark their ballots, who they are and are not willing to work with if elected.
Category: Analysis, Polls, Viewpoints & Analysis, Viewpoint & Analysis
This assumes that those that voted for the incumbent will do so forever. You need to have runoff elections between the top vote getters.
Even if we end up with 10 candidates in our constituencies, let’s agree to vote for the BEST new person. It is not about making the incumbents lose, but about ensuring we put the most qualified and worthy people in those seats. Let’s be smart, Cayman.
CNS you were strong proponents for One Person One Vote and dismantling the status quo. This garbage of a system plays right into the hands of the incumbents.
It will do nothing to change power. McKeeva is still bringing his gang to the party.
Cayman does not have one man one vote – there are far too many disparities in constituent numbers across the 3 Islands.
That’s reality.
True one man one vote would be a national vote with the top 19 going in the Parliament. 1 national constituency.
The lazy sods will complain that it’s too hard to campaign nationally – just mark down their name and don’t vote for those wutless ones.
5.29 your absolutely right, voters please look carefully with whom some of this candidates are associated. We don’t need another McKeeva or any of his stooges! Soup instead of Turkeys! Proof that your newly found social vein is ingenious and stay with it for a few years, don’t immediately try to use it as a political platform to profit for yourself!
Seriously is this the best they can do in WBS? Do nothing Tara or McKeeva Jr (Raoul) what a choice!
Seems like North Side needs an honest candidate. Maybe we should give Justin Ebanks our vote.
Can we please have someone decent run in GTS? So far its looking like Babs v Alric… surely we can do better than that?!
We need QUALITY candidates to step up. If you want your incumbent “voted out” you better make sure there’s someone contesting their seat. If there is no one else to vote for, even refraining from voting for the incumbent, won’t result in them being “voted out”.
Alden McLaughlin still enjoys accepting full credit for pandemic handling as its spokesperson, but it was policy designed and dictated by the CMO and Governor. The fact that XXXX there’s no secret contract to FOI demonstrates that it wasn’t his idea. As soon as Firstlady Seymour caper and Wendy attacks began, all the regular briefing meetings stopped. Giving Seymour a free pass to skulk away was signature PPM style.
So many have-been. Osborne Bodden? Frank McField, MacKeeva just to name a few go sit down. We need fresh fish in that pond.
Change the Elections Law.
Cash and free appliances favour the status quo
That is the way it will be until we have meaningful standards in public life laws with strict enforcement, meaningful campaign finance laws with strict enforcement, and candidates who do not see getting elected as the path to riches. Not holding my breath.
Ding, ding, ding!!! That’s the two biggest issues….no enforcement/oversight on campaigning and the level of MP pay!
Why is a blind-eye turned regarding events that basically advertised vote-buying? For just two examples, think of McKeeva’s recent party. The one that was scheduled to be on during his “curfew”. Or, the cash given in Christmas cards in the Brac that were claimed to be her “personal” gifts yet were enclosed with official stationary?
Most of the current MPs are barely employable elsewhere and certainly would never see that kind of money in another job. There are a few representatives that MP pay is actually a paycut for them. If “it has to be a paycut from current job” was made a requirement, you’d have candidates that are educated persons with professional experience and not fools looking for a big payday.
Sounds good on paper, but unfortunately the least paid politician is almost always the most vulnerable to bribery.
Vote splitting plants like the one in North Side are designed with that purpose.
Incumbent Muppets.
Challenging Muppets.
Muppets in Waiting.
Muppets everywhere, even in the local press corp.
There are no vote splitting plants and that is what Jay Ebanks would have you believe. Maybe he is simply intimidated by the other 2 and rightly so. People in North Side consider this – if big corporate sponsors pay for turkeys and gift cards do you really believe that this doesn’t come with a cost? Please do not let this dictate the outcome of the election otherwise future generations will suffer. They only use candidates to further their self interests and that makes that candidate the wrong one. They cannot serve the people as they have to take care of the corporate sponsor agenda and it does not favor Caymanians. We need a candidate that has solutions to ensure we can all afford a turkey and generations to come. Justin Ebanks you have my vote!
Still not getting his deposit back
This is great news flood the field we need PPM back.
I am not voting for the unemployed or people like Bernie who is likely to achieve the distinction of the worst MP in the history of our islands.