50% of seats held by less than 50% of votes

| 29/01/2021

(CNS): The realities of ‘one man, one vote’ in single-member constituencies, given the size of electoral districts in Cayman, came home to voters after the 2017 General Election, when they found themselves with a government that no one had voted for, and in some constituencies a representative that was supported by less than half of the voters.

Nine of the 19 in parliament are currently held by MPs who were supported by less than 50% of those who turned out to vote.

In some cases, MLAs (now MPs) were returned in 2017 with well under half of the votes cast because three, four or even five candidates divided the vote to such an extent that several candidates now represent constituencies where well over 60% of the electors voted for someone else. While this is the case in any ‘first past the post’ system, in small constituencies the impact of a crowded field can be significant.

Despite now being one of the most popular politicians nationally, at the last election Ezzard Miller was returned with less than 34% of the vote in North Side, which was just 201 votes, as a total constituency turnout of just 597 votes was split four ways.

In East End, Arden McLean, the current opposition leader, was returned with just 272 votes, just under 46% of the total, and just 26 votes more than his nearest challenger. A third player took just 74 votes, which secured victory for McLean.

In Cayman’s largest constituency, Bodden Town East, Dwayne Seymour, who was instrumental in helping the formation of this current Unity Government, was returned with less than 38% of the vote, after nearly 700 people voted for someone else.

Some candidates won with over 50% of the vote, even in four-way races, and stood the test of a crowded field. Tara Rivers won West Bay South with almost 54% of the vote, despite having three challengers.

Meanwhile, Barbara Conolly emerged victorious in a competition between five candidates. She polled just over 40% of the vote, beating former minister Mike Adam into second place. But 27% of the vote was divided between three other contenders, none of whom reached the 10% threshold and lost their deposits.

Roy McTaggart won in a four-way race with 45.5% of the vote, which could place the heir apparent to the leadership of the People’s Progressive Movement in a vulnerable position if he faced a head to head race.

But this is is unlikely. McTaggart and all of the other incumbents on the government bench who fell short of the 50% mark in 2017 could still easily be re-elected, regardless of the loud calls from some in the community for a complete change because the chances that they will face only one challenger, the most successful way of ousting incumbents, is remote.

At the moment only a handful of new candidates have declared in George Town but with two months to go before Nomination Day that will change.

The public disquiet over how this current government was formed behind closed doors has been compounded by the refusal of legislators to remove Bush from his role as speaker. While this may fire up voters to get to the polls, it is also firing up candidates, and the enthusiasm of the latter could dash the hopes of the former.

Despite the efforts of activist groups, from the environment advocates to those campaigning to stop violence against women, in the current state of “disorganised politics”, a phrase coined by former minister and Newlands candidate Wayne Panton, change will be hard.

With no real political structure in place, a possible scenario is that dozens of candidates who are clearly not going to win will run for well meaning but misplaced reasons, making it much easier for incumbents to be returned.

While the Bush factor will play a part for all candidates at this election, especially incumbents, it may not be as significant as some voters hope. The incumbent for Prospect and former talk-show host, Austin Harris, was elected after admitting charges in 2015 of a drunken violent attack on his then girlfriend, which had almost no effect on his ability to garner 466 votes, or almost 55% of the turnout.

Prospect has increased in size since by 100 votes to 1,275, but two other candidates have already declared and there are another two potentials, so if Harris picks up the PPM loyalist votes, he may not need more than half of his original voters to stick with him to win, making him a hard man to topple from that seat.

However, in a head to head vote with one competent and genuine candidate who can turn out the 25% who did not show up to vote in the last election, that seat could flip.

This scenario is the same in many of the 19 seats, and it will be up to candidates to ask themselves if they have a realistic chance of winning. If, as many of them claim, they want to see change, are they are willing to sacrifice their own run to make it happen?

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Category: Analysis, Polls, Viewpoints & Analysis, Viewpoint & Analysis

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