Who will win on Wednesday?

| 19/05/2017 | 70 Comments

Cayman News Service(CNS Election): On 24 May, voters in the Cayman Islands will go to the polls to elect nineteen MLAs for the next four years. To have a majority in the House and therefore form the next government, a group or party will need to win ten of those 19 seats. The Progressives (PPM), the party that has led the country for the last four years, is running 15 candidates. If they win at least ten, they will have a clear majority and will continue in power with their party leader, Alden McLaughlin, as premier.

He will then choose his Cabinet from among his party, although he may retain Tara Rivers, who is running as an Independent, as a minister.

The Cayman Democratic Party (CDP) is running eleven candidates. Again, if they win at least 10 seats, they will form the next government with their leader, McKeeva Bush, as premier, and the next Cabinet will be made up of CDP members of the LA.

If at least ten Independents win, then they can form a group to form a government. If this happens, it seems likely that the next premier would be Arden McLean, who has not been shy about expressing his desire for the position.

Those who think this would be a good idea believe that a loose group of independents would be free from being bonded to party policies and would vote in the House based on their own agendas and conscience, thus maintaining the overall integrity of the Legislative Assembly.

But there is also the danger that without a firm set of collectively held policy positions, less would be accomplished and the result would be a weak and shambolic government.

However, a very possible scenario is that none of those groups will win enough seats to win a clear majority. In that case, there will be a period of uncertainty while the winning candidates “horse trade” to see who can agree to a coalition. Whether Tara Rivers, if she is re-elected, would put her weight behind fellow Independents or behind the PPM, with whom she has aligned herself over the last four years, remains to be seen.

See full list on right hand side column and click on a candidate’s name to see where they are running.

Both parties will then be trying to win over Independents to their side, or an Independent majority, led by McLean, may try to attract MLAs from one or both parties to join them. Some voters may like to see the best of the MLAs, no matter their political affiliation, form the next government, which could only happen if the Independents win enough seats that neither party could see their way to a majority.

During the horse trading period, carrots for MLAs to join the party or group may well include a Cabinet seat, but they would then be bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet.

In 2013, the PPM won nine seats and then recruited Julianna O’Connor-Connolly, the only member of the PNP to win a seat, to join the Progressives party, giving them the ten seats they needed. They then asked the three C4C members, Tara Rivers (who was offered and accepted a Cabinet ministry), Roy McTaggart and Winston Connolly, to join them on the government benches. Later McTaggart also joined the PPM.

However, mid-way through the administration, Alva Suckoo and Anthony Eden left the party and joined the opposition benches and Connolly also joined the opposition. But the PPM plus Rivers still made up the magic ten to maintain control of the House.

So in these coming elections, quite apart from choosing their own representative, voters must bear in mind the consequences of the make-up of the LA and how that will affect who will govern the Cayman Islands over the next four years.

See poll results here

Category: Polls

Comments (70)

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  1. Anonymous says:

    The people in Cayman are hurting

    We need to reduce cost of living

    We need to do something about education

    The roads need to be fixed

    Caymanians should get a slice of the pie

    We should have community centers in each district

    The dump will be sorted with a state of the art something

    Did I say already that people in Cayman are hurting?

    I guess I should run for politics cause I know all the right stuff to say. No idea of the actual situation regarding the state of affairs concerning the entire country and how bad it was 4 years ago when the current government took over, but hey, I can drop the usual election sound bites…….

    Be careful how you vote on Wednesday……we finally managed to get out of a hole, don’t put us straight back in.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Ozzie called his people “ragamuffins” and himself a nigger after the PPM motorcade.. Sounds a bit like Hillary calling Trump supporters a “basket of deplorables,” and we know what happened there.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Dr T and his soldierz. I tell you. Dr T is upset with both parties for not getting any concessions like Dr Shetty. So he is throwing money at these Independents talking about mortgage foreclosures, people suffering etc. But on the other hand he wants to promote economic diversification mainly in his area of specialty. Bio medical research, pharmaceutical manufacturing etc. He owns pharmacies. This seems to me that Dr T is hellbent on getting a piece of the action. His claim is vote for Independents to run the country instead of the party system. Let’s put politics aside for a minute. Dr T. are you saying this entire field of Independents can run this country? Are you really serious?

    • Anonymous says:

      The real question is why he has never employed any of those candidates he claims to be the “cream of the crop”?

  4. Anonymous says:

    Well i hope all you folks who want to avoid disappointment and embarrassment not, only on election day but for the next four years, will look at the polls above and place your votes accordingly.

  5. A Nony Mouse says:

    The Progressives left a VERY bad taste in my mouth when they invited one of those maniacal motorbike miscreants to their platform! One of those lunatics narrowly missed being a s#itstain on my bumper last week!! I’m sick and tired of this nonsense.

    There are two more potential idiots practicing on newly acquired bikes on my street now. Police will not even come to check them out, despite my submission of HOURS of video clearly showing who they are and where they live! Enough of this Bulls#it!

    • Anonymous says:

      Hey PPM,can you donate some soap and mouthwash here please.

    • Estella C. says:

      Do you even know that “maniacal motorbike miscreant? that they put on their platform? I bet you don’t know that he’s the one that is trying to get the youths off the road?? I guess not or you wouldn’t have made that grossly inaccurate statement. Kudos to Ozzie for stepping up and “trying to do something” instead of speaking bad of them, what have you done??

  6. Anonymous says:

    Why was Candidate X not an option?

  7. Anonymous says:

    Maxine for Premier!

  8. Anonymous says:

    Saunders has the biggest signs so he must be Premier!

  9. Anonymous says:

    Manchester United 2-0

  10. Anonymous says:

    Two very useful questions have unfortunately been left off the survey. “Are you a registered voter” and “Will you be voting on Wednesday?” The answers to those might have given a truer reflection of where things actually stand as we have no idea if the folks taking the survey can actually vote!

  11. A. None Musvote says:

    And Saunders now think he is capable of being the Finance Minister, because he has the qualification and experience. So he could not save HSBC from doing all the wrong stuff, but he is capable of fixing the whole of Government, cause he has the experience.,some experience eh!

  12. Red Bay says:

    Yep. And there is 301 of us in Red Bay and we do not know who to vote for. We are only sorry Mr. Saunders was not representing us in Red Bay.

  13. Anonymous says:

    If you had worked hard all your life to build a business with a $600 million annual budget, which of these individuals or groups would you choose to run your company? Who would you be comfortable handing over complete control to for the next 4 years? Would you choose Chris Saunders? Arden McLean? McKeeva Bush? Kenneth Bryan? Hmmmm. Can they be trusted to prudently manage your hard earned money?
    Or maybe stick with Alden McLaughlin with a legal background, Marco Archer with unquestionable integrity and proven prudent financial management skills, and the rest of their team of proven managers. Talk is cheap. Look at track records and personal and corporate accomplishments. Managing your $600 million business takes experience, self control, integrity, and there’s no place for BS. Above all things, beware of the BS artist.

    • Anonymous says:

      Based on your analogy….I would not pick any of the names you’ve mentioned…none of them have previously run a successful business.

      Moses is the only one who has run a successful business. However he is in the Brac and I vote on Grand Cayman.

      There is more to consider than just running a successful business. That can be the basis, then does their vision of the future of the business align with your vision.

      I personally do not want a port in Cayman because I am an avid scuba diver. My friends who regularly visit are also avid divers. Once the port destroys many of the easier shallow dives, there’s no where to take their children for their refreshers. The regular visits will change to another country. That eliminates an average of 10 stayover visitors a year. Seems little, but I am one person with visitors. What of the rest?

      Besides, what else does Cayman have besides the beaches and diving anyway?

      • Anonymous says:

        There are 365 dive sites in Cayman. Removing a few acres of excavation will not make diving in a commercial harbor worse than it already is.
        The benefits that the port will bring to the whole country will outweigh your diving needs perhaps.

    • Anonymous says:

      If you want to buy people stick with the current gov the rest of us who want honesty and integrity will vote for independents!

  14. Knot S Smart says:

    With the PPM you have 5-6 experienced leaders either of which would make a good Premier. Maybe the independents have one or two and the CDP does not have anyone that would make a good Premier…

  15. Anonymous says:

    It all comes down to integrity. If we can keep corruption out of CIG for another 4 years, we will have done a good job this election. If on the other hand we elect corrupt blowhards with nothing to lose, we will surely get what we deserve.

  16. Anonymous says:

    10:59, your sentence was not completed. He sounded like an educated Jamaican. What’s wrong with that? I am so sorry that our group of 258 cannot vote for him because we all live in Prospect.

  17. Anonymous says:

    Thank you “Dr” Kendrick Webster for yelling at the top of your lungs at a political rally in our residential neighborhood tonight. Absolute lack of concern for the entire Fairview Road/Fairbanks area. I pretty sure you lost any chance of votes among my immediate neighbors and I imagine that the houses closer to your inconsiderate gathering will absolutely not be voting for you.

  18. Anonymous says:

    Doesn’t matter who you vote for.
    Nothing will change, just more hate, unhappiness and poverty.
    All a result of politicians in general.
    Don’t vote, just stay home…..

  19. Anonymous says:

    My sadness about this election is that none of the candidates seem to have a personal relationship with God.
    Hating gays and playing holier than thou hardly constitutes a good spiritual position.
    On the other hand, deciding to fill in a few potholes over personal integrity is pitiful and pathetic.
    Belonging to a secret society without informing the electorate is downright disgusting, but then again, we expected nothing less of you people, because after all, you are “secret”,

    Whatever happened to, “Fellow Caymanians, you know me. I am not perfect. I do not belong to the Lodge. I understand that the cost of living is crucifying you and I will be transparent before you?”

    Is there no integrity in this world? Are we all following a personal agenda? Where is our humility and desire to serve?

    In the words of one of my favourite no-bullshit people, “I have no words.”

    • frangipani says:

      You obviously don’t know Marco Archer. He is a real and committed Christian and has a very close and deep relationship with Jesus his Saviour. He is held in the highest regard and he is not hypocritical in any sense of the word. The populace should be on their knees praying for his success in the election which is so critical this time around.

  20. Unison says:

    Sorry folks, the poll results just reflect PPM supporters, which is not accurate :))

    This is my opinion – I think we will have an LA with 5 CDP members and 5 PPM members. The rest 9 will be Independents – that would definitely include Ezzard Miller, Anthony Eden, and Arden Mclean. Sorry folks I know you don’t like these guys, but I know they are well liked in their districts. :))

    The 5 CDP members I see will no doubt be – the one and only McKeeva Bush, then Bernie Bush, and Captian Eugene (these I refer to the 3 amigos). Then Im hearing alot positive on Mike Adams and Pearlina M-Lumsden getting seats. :)) Note: I feel John Jefferson will lose to Tara Rivers. Hearing alot of positives about her.

    Then the 5 PPM members will be – Moses Kirkonnell, and Marco Archer (both probable candidates for the next Premier). Then Julianna O’Connor, Joseph Hew, and Roy McTaggart. Note:  Im not quite sure about Roy but I think he may slip in. Another thing:

    I have an itchy feeling that Deniston Tibbitts will take away Alden’s voters, and this will cause Dr. Frank McField to take his seat in Red Bay. Dr. McField is getting support from Dr. Tomlinson and I’m hearing positive things about him. If this upset so happens, PPM will be headless in the LA, or they may have to elect a new Premier – you know who ;))

    An interesting election – It would be HISTORICAL if the House has more than 3 women. The 3 making it into the House, I believe will be Tara, Pearlina, and Julianna.

    Peace 🙂

    • Anonymous says:

      Pearkina has nothing but failures behind her. Joey at least is a successful businessman and Karin a very successful lawyer. I don’t think the people of GTN are so silly to throw their votes away because of a party. GTN is quite a wealthy area and would vote for people quite similar to them. Unless you’re telling me the entire dog city and cox area is voting for Pearlina. Though…..Karin has done enough pro bono work that she’s probably helped all of them out at some point.

    • GTS voter says:

      Please not Mike Adams. Do people really have that short of a memory?? Come on Cayman??!

    • Knot S Smart says:

      Unison you wrote ‘Sorry folks, the poll results just reflect PPM supporters, which is not accurate’ . Are you thinking that way because you know that most of the PPM supporters are more sensible people, and more literate, and more self-motivated and therefore require less handouts from government than the supporters of say – the UDP/CDP?

    • Hmmmmmmm says:

      Helllloooo, why is it that no one has mentioned the Frank Mcfield theory? I for one burst out laughing and then was like wait maybe I am missing something?

  21. Anonymous says:

    The winners will be those elected and the losers will be the rest of us. Isn’t this how democracy has always worked?

  22. Anonymous says:

    OMG PPM again? Are you Caymanians out of your mind???? Tara hasn’t done anything for this country Alden?? People run independent, we vote them independent that they go to a party? Can someone explain this? We didn’t vote them in as a party we voted them as independent…like Tara

    • Anonymous says:

      Pretty sure Tara was independent when she was elected. I really wanted to vote independant this election but unfortunately all the independents are very small minded and seem like they are just running for politics because that haven’t succeeded in their career. CDP is up to usual tricks of gifting and vote buying so that leaves us with PPM. The least bad of the choices.

      • Anonymous says:

        Tara is useless. Accomplished nothing for education and did not even try to tweak small laws which would make a big impact. One is bullying. There is no true law. The bullying policy only covers public schools.

        Rather I would like to see an anti-bullying law. This would not just cover children, but protect adults in the workplace. This prevents abuse in the workplace. Covers children in private schools. Not just child against child. But teacher against child.

        In the US it is a law to prevent shootings in the school. The child would go to court and get charged. Cayman has not had a school shooting, but why wait until one happens. Or why wait until a suicide of a child. Prevention is better than a cure.

      • Anonymous says:

        It cannot get worse than the ppm. The stuff they snuck into their bills for their rich buddies is surreal. They are the worst of the worst!

  23. Anonymous says:

    Give me Chris Saunders anytime over Arden McLean !!

    • Anonymous says:

      8.54am That’s one tough choice Arden the former Action Man ,now the Angry Man, or Chris Saunders the Angriest Man.Wouldn’t want to be in your shoes. In fact wouldn’t want to see either one of them in charge.The other Party or group leaders are Alden of PPM, McKeeva of CDP and Elio of T- party.As a side note what I find amazing is that Suckoo would leave PPM with a calm and stable leader in Alden to a party led by the very angry man , Arden. So if you vote Suckoo then you are voting for Arden McLean to be your very angry Premier.Think about that.

      • Anonymous says:

        Arden gets angry when he see so much injepustice, Alden is arrogant and sly- he calls it shy!!

  24. Anonymous says:

    Chris Saunders sounded like we accidentally let a member of th JLP into our Caymanian debate. He has no class and no place in Cayman politics.

  25. Smithy says:

    PPM for another term. What a blessing.

  26. Fox in the pen says:

    But is he really independent?

  27. Anonymous says:

    Ppm means more years of nothingNess….
    Independents = small town closed mindedness……

  28. Anonymous says:

    Is your comment a joke? I hope it is as Cayman does not need him as Premier.

  29. Anonymous says:

    CNS a bit presumptuous I think for you to assume that if the PPM gets at least 10 seats, which would be the majority, that Alden McLaughlin must necessarily be in that 10. The PPM may take 10 seats but if Alden does got get one of the 10 then he would not be Premier,

  30. Anonymous says:

    Saunders was awful last night. No solutions and venom. He has already lost.

  31. Anonymous says:

    How sad….

  32. Anonymous says:

    Ppm is the party and they own all independents. Dr. t was also a PPm man…we are doomed…

  33. Unison says:

    I saw Christopher Saunders spoke last night and I must say, I was impressed.

    That question for Primier … I think Chris would make a good one 🙂

    • Anonymous says:

      you are joking right?

    • Anonymous says:

      Unison what was astounding was his arrogance.Saunders consistently talked over the host and even swore on tv. He seems to think that he is the only one in the world with a solution to anything. And the more he talked the more Jamaican he sounded; what’s with that?

      • Anonymous says:

        To add to that…he is a former UDP (now CDP).

      • Anonymous says:

        We don’t need a Jamaican politician in Cayman. We need a Caymanian politician.

        If he is truly Jamaican with Jamaican ideas, then he can run in Jamaica.

        Cayman has a very different identity than Jamaica. There is no need to copy Jamaica.

    • Knot S Smart says:

      To become the Premier he would first need to win a seat in the L.A. and then have 9 of his like minded legislators win as well… I predict that will happen in the election after next never…

    • Anonymous says:

      He would make an excellent used car salesman! Not so sure about giving him the keys to the good ship Cayman.

    • Anonymous says:

      Chris Saunders as Premier???? You must have fallen out a Guinep tree and hit your head. Out of the entire 61 candidates running, there are ONLY 3 persons qualified to be Premier, and those are Alden, Moses or Marco. Good Lord help us if we end up with someone else., especially someone from the CDP or any of Macs past affiliates.

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