Warm seas build fuel for busy season

(CNS): The Cayman Islands is facing yet another unpredictable hurricane season, with conflicting conditions that could either fuel or suppress storms in the coming months, according to forecasts from various experts. At the start of the season on Sunday, Hazard Management Cayman Islands Director Danielle Coleman reminded the community that storm preparation is not a one-off thing but a way of life, and we should all be ready for any storm at any time.

According to the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, the current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months, but there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall.

Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal. Even though they are not as warm as they were last year by this time, a warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral or potential La Niña conditions provide a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.

“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity,” the CINWS team said in their season bulletin.

While the Atlantic is not as hot as it was in 2024, the Caribbean Sea is still much warmer than usual, and these warmer ocean temperatures contribute to more storm activity.

Most international storm forecasters are calling for up to 19 named storms this season, and as many as ten hurricanes, five of which could be major. But it only takes one storm to destroy property or even take lives.

Cayman has dodged major hurricane strikes for 17 years, since the late season Hurricane Paloma hit Cayman Brac in 2008. However, several times in recent years the islands have been caught by the sudden intensification of weather systems in our region that have rapidly grown into major storms with very little notice.

in a video message to mark the start of the storm season, Governor Jane Owen and Premier André Ebanks both urged residents to make sure they are prepared and help shape a culture of readiness across the islands.

The Cayman Islands Government has significantly improved national disaster operations in recent years, ensuring all three islands are well prepared.

See the video messages below: