TS Ian set to intensify through Sunday

| 23/09/2022 | 20 Comments
Local graphic TS Ian – CINWS at 4am

(CNS): UPDATED Sunday 10am: The centre of Tropical Storm Ian is currently forecast to pass some 100 miles west of Grand Cayman around 8am tomorrow morning as at least a category one hurricane. As of 10am local time Sunday the National Hurricane Centre said TS Ian was expected to rapidly intensify later today. Grand Cayman remains under hurricane warning while the Sister Islands are under a storm watch. The storm is currently moving at 14mph and is about 300 miles SSE of the Cayman Islands. Wind speeds are over 50mph and storm force winds extend around 60 miles out from the centre.

Check back for local details from the CINWS later today

See earlier posts below.

UPDATED Saturday 5:30pm: Tropical Storm Ian was moving at around 16mph as of 4pm Saturday, when it was some 445 miles SE of Grand Cayman, with maximum sustained winds of 45mph. Ian has however, tracked further west and the expected closest point of the storm is now 118 miles south-west of Grand Cayman at around 6am, Monday. Nevertheless, Grand Cayman remains under a hurricane warning and can expect widespread thunderstorms, Sunday, with tropical storm conditions late into the night. Tropical storm winds and hurricane force gusts are forecast for early Monday along with extremely rough seas and storm surge.

See earlier posts below.

UPDATED Saturday 1pm: Tropical Storm Ian was located some 500 miles south-east of Grand Cayman Saturday afternoon moving at 16mph and tracking further west of the Cayman Islands than previously forecast. Cayman Brac and Little Cayman remain under a Tropical Storm Watch while Grand Cayman is now under a hurricane warning. In the latest NHC advisory the storm was predicted to rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours becoming a hurricane Sunday evening. Ian could be a major hurricane later on Monday as it moves away from Cayman, towards Cuba.

At 1pm local time winds from Ian were blowing at 45mph and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 60 miles from the center. According to the latest local forecast Ian will be at least a category one hurricane as the centre passes Cayman at its closet point which is currently estimated at around 68 miles some time Monday morning.

According to the local forecast posted on the HMCI Facebook page the onset of Tropical Storm Force Winds and hurricane gusts on Grand Cayman will be around 1am Monday. We can expect overcast skies with widespread thunderstorms from Sunday with tropical storm conditions late into the night as the system nears the Cayman Islands. Extremely rough seas accompanied by storm surge are also expected and a flood warning will be in effect. Estimated local rainfall is around 1-2 inches on Sunday and Monday.

The highest estimated winds are forecast to be over 60mph with higher gusts on Monday on Grand Cayman and around 30mph on the Sister Islands. Estimated wave heights are up to eight feet on Sunday and up to twelve feet on Monday. Swells of 5 to 7 feet are likely along with 2 to 4 feet of storm surge.

See earlier posts below:

UPDATED Saturday 9am: As Tropical Storm Ian rolled across the Caribbean Sea some 550 miles south east of the Cayman Islands, Saturday morning, moving at 15mph residents braced themselves for a near direct hit early Monday. Winds in excess of 85mph are expected on Grand Cayman in the early hours of Monday morning and a flood warning will be in effect as Ian is expected to be a hurricane by the time it passes over the island. If the storm continues on its current path Ian’s closest point is expected to be some 22 miles (this was since revised to 68 miles) SWS of Grand Cayman.

See the latest weather forecast on CINWS FB page or website and more details below regarding shelters and other information. Also see Mr Weatherman on Youtube for detailed tracking.

UPDATED Friday 10pm: Tropical Storm Ian was located some 680 miles east-south-east of the Cayman Islands as of 10pm, Friday, after forming over the central Caribbean Sea. While the storm is currently recording winds of 45mph Ian is expected to become a hurricane as it approaches Cayman late Sunday night or early Monday morning. The storm is currently moving at 12mph and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

Cayman is under a Hurricane Watch, given the expectation that by the time this weather system reaches local waters it will be a hurricane packing winds well over 70mph. Tropical storm force winds are expected to be felt in Cayman at 6pm on Sunday evening with flooding on Grand Cayman in low lying areas and projected rainfall in the region of 8 to 10 inches. By the early hours of Monday as the storm passes over the island we can expect winds well in excess of 75mph.

In an address to the nation confirming the hurricane watch Premier Wayne Panton urged everyone to monitor official communication channels to track the development of this storm system.

“Please ensure that you have ample supplies to provide for yourself and your loved ones through the storm and 48 hours thereafter. Important provisions include prescription medications, baby supplies, non-perishable food and drinking water. Be prepared for potential loss of power,” he said.

The National Emergency Operations Centre will meet as the storm develops and respond to the changing conditions and it is expected that it will stand up at 4pm on Sunday.

“I ask that you remain calm,” Panton stated in a video address. “Preparation and caution are key to remaining safe. Please conclude your preparations as quickly as possible and plan to be safely sheltered by Sunday afternoon. Rest assured that the Cayman Islands Government is fully prepared and all emergency services are available to provide assistance as necessary,” the premier added.

To allow the public to make final preparations supermarkets, hardware stores, and home depots are authorized to open for business on Sunday. Anyone needing emergency assistance at any time, is asked to call 911. The Mental Health hotline will remain open at 1-800-543-6463. Shelters will open on Sunday afternoon.

The shelters are Sir John A. Cumber Primary School, John Gray High School (Pet friendly), Bodden Town Primary School, Clifton Hunter High School (Pet friendly) and East End Civic Centre all of which also serve as designated Emergency Medical Centres. The Cayman Islands Red Cross shelter will be open from 4pm on Sunday while the Aston Rutty Civic Centre in Cayman Brac will also open as an emergency shelter at 2pm on Sunday. Additional shelters activations across all three islands will be announced as needed, depending on the intensity and forecasted track of the tropical cyclone.

For more information see previous CNS article here or visit GOV.KY or www.caymanprepared.ky for details on the storm track visit the NHC here or the CINWS Facebook page here for more localized tracking.

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Comments (20)

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  1. Anonymous says:

    I always thought removing beach sand was unlawful. Will the folks filling their sandbags at Smith Cove this morning return the sand on Tuesday?

  2. Anonymous says:

    The betting window is now open to bet on if the Kearny Gomez radar will be working on Tuesday morning

  3. Anonymous says:

    Don’t panic Capt Mainwaring! Don’t panic!

  4. Chris Johnson says:

    Thanks CNS for these periodic up dates.

  5. Anonymous says:

    The fact that the National Hurricane Centre is predicting rapid intensification means that we should all stay on alert.
    Last year Grace got stronger as it was passing us.
    Two years ago Delta went from 70mph to 145mph in just 24 hours, right in our area.
    Many years ago Hurricane Michelle passed well west of here, moving north, and it was the wave action the day after that did a lot of damage along our west coast.
    Every storm is different… so keep safe everyone.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Fill the baths with water, just in case !

    Good luck Cayman

  7. Anonymous says:

    Good to hear! Stay safe!

  8. Anonymous says:

    I just looked at the CI national weather service site and they say winds of 25 to 30 knots for monday. I hope no one is paying attention to that!

  9. Anonymous says:

    We are ready.


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