Early prediction calls for nine hurricanes in 2022

| 11/04/2022 | 29 Comments

(CNS): With Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures warmer than normal, hurricane experts are predicting an above-average season this year with at least nine hurricanes, including four major ones, making landfall. The first prediction for this year was published Thursday, two months before hurricane season begins, and reminding everyone that regardless of the predictions it it “only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for those living in its path.”

According to Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell and their team of storm watchers at Colorado State University, at least 19 tropical storms are expected in 2022. The forecast suggests that it is unlikely that El Niño conditions will occur during this year’s hurricane season, which typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity. This, combined with the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and most of the subtropical Atlantic, is likely to stir up the stormy weather.

With two months to go before the start of the storm season, these predictions will change as we get closer to 1 June. However, CSU traditionally releases this very early forecast to give people an idea, given that the Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins.

“People are curious to know how active the upcoming season is likely to be, particularly if you can show hindcast skill improvement over climatology for many past years,” the researchers at CSU said. “Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April. There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year.”

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Category: Science & Nature, Weather

Comments (29)

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  1. Anonymous says:

    Thank god we have a working doppler radar.
    Never mind.

    • Anonymous says:

      World Class Failure

    • Anonymous says:

      Must be the longest “maintenance ” ever. Not a word from weather service, and hurricane season just around the corner.
      Website disappeared along with the radar,e-mail not answered, anyone still working there?

      • pete says:

        Our website is still there and in fact is improved. Also any emails sent to the weather service is answered personally by the Director.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Even with TS Grace last year, just highlighted the poor infrastructure and weaknesses on Island. We need to be vigilant and remain on our toes.

    The guys who predict all this have no idea, pure guess work. I use the tie in the water test, if it’s over 80F now then we need to be alert.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Is Dart still planning on building a huge skyscraper tower, like in Dubai, in Camana Bay still with all these hurricanes? May get a wee bit windy up there for the residences. Visually it would almost look like Grand Cayman island had an erection. Would it stay up in category 5?

  4. Anonymous says:

    Regardless of how people feel about the reports made public by the experts at CSU, it makes no sense that we burry our heads in the sand and wish these storms away.

    What we all can do is to get ourselves ready for the season, as best as possible, and hope for the best outcome.

    Preparation is key to all of us survival when it comes to these annual storms and only the idiots who have never experienced a Cat 3, 4 or 5 here in the Cayman Islands, have no place to spew their arrogance or insults to those who do their best to alert us to the potential danger that awaits us this season.

    • Anonymous says:

      I’ll add ‘not experienced from a Tropical Storm upwards’. I admit to being surprised by the impacts of the last couple of TS we had (on Grand). I had only been preparing for hurricanes so preparation wise I was covered but I was surprised to be pulling some of the materials out for ‘just’ a TS.

      It is wise to use these predictions as a reminder to be prepared.

  5. Say it like it is says:

    Like all weather forecasters they are careful not to release past forecasts with a comparison to actual storm/hurricane numbers.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Caribbean waters are quite warmer than usual with global warming from climate change showing absolutely no signs of slowing down.

    Mother Nature Strikes Back.

  7. Anonymous says:

    At about this time every year, out come the “experts” from under their stones, blinking in the daylight, to deliver their meaningless prognostications.

    I suspect that all they really seek is publicity. And maybe funding from Home Base. Look at that final paragraph: they admit they haven’t a clue.

    If luck intervenes and they get it right, you can be sure you’ll hear them crowing about it. But if it doesn’t and they don’t, and it turns out to be a quiet year, everyone forgets what they said earlier and they edge silently back down their holes, polishing the coins they’ll toss again to predict next year’s storms.

    Stop reporting these buffoons. It just encourages them and makes them believe they’re real scientists. What do they base these predictions on? What are their “models”?

    Mine is my finger and sticking it in the air. Applying it, here’s my prediction: three hurricanes will make landfall. There. Let’s see who’s right at the end of the season.

  8. Anonymous says:

    we had two storm hit last year…we will now be in the clear for another 5-10 years.

    • Anonymous says:

      If this is the math you are betting on … I suggest you keep the wager low .. CLEARLY you are a moron!!

    • Anonymous says:

      if you flip a coin twice and get 2 heads, what is the probability of flipping the coin again and getting heads?

      It’s still a 50% chance.

      It’s like choosing the same lottery numbers that won the week before. You still have the same chance of winning as picking any other number.

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