Gov’t opening on basis of risk-reward balance

(CNS): Tourism Minister Kenneth Bryan has said that government might not hold fast to opening next month but will be making an assessment about lifting quarantine requirements based on a risk-reward basis because the future of the COVID-19 pandemic remains unpredictable. But he noted that government cannot sustain an endless closure of the tourism sector because of the need to pay stipends, support small businesses and other related costs, while at the same time losing millions of dollars in accommodation taxes and other related fees.

Appearing on Cayman Crosstalk, Rooster’s morning talk show, on Friday, Bryan confirmed that the stipend will not stop before the end of the year and spoke again about the threats to end the payments that he made on Radio Cayman, saying that while it will taper off for those who go back to work, it will not come to abrupt end.

The minister apologised to anyone who was upset by his use of the words “scare tactics”, as he explained he was trying hard to motivate local people to sign up for the tourism jobs that are now re-emerging. He said the government was still battling with the industry to make sure Caymanians come first in the current recruitment efforts ahead of the border opening.

“If there is a stipend recipient who felt that my comments… made them feel bad, then I really do apologise as I don’t want them to feel that way,” he said. “The most important thing I want them to take away is that the government will assist you as much as possible, but our job is also to give you as much support to get you back to work.”

But the government is facing growing concerns across the community about re-opening in the face of the Delta variant and high infection rates in the USA, especially given the fact that children under 12 cannot be vaccinated. While the vaccine is proving its worth in protecting people from getting sick, it is now evident that fully vaccinated people can still spread this strain even when they are unaware they are infected.

Bryan said this was the issue that government must balance against the economic situation. “When you weigh out the risk versus reward, it is hard to say to a large industry… with a lot of Caymanians working in this industry, that their priorities are not important,” he said. “Government continues to lose a lot of money as well as pay out a lot every month.”

He said government is spending more than $6 million per month on stipend alone and millions more is being spent while revenue is being lost in the face of a pandemic, but there is no end in sight and it appears that we are all going to have to learn to live with the virus.

He said that hypothetically it might not go away for five years but that would be an unsustainable situation for government because although the financial services is carrying the economy, that sector is being squeezed as much as possible to cover the public service costs.

“We believe… and are seeing potential ways for the risk to be low enough to allow… tourism related business to open,” he said, noting the protections in place such as the reintroduction of arrival testing, the pre-testing and vaccination.

“Can we put enough safety mechanisms in place that will allow us to live with it?” he asked rhetorically, as he explained how the government is thinking about the removal of quarantine for those fully vaccinated with verifiable shots in October. But he said government was making the decision based on the “prerequisite of 80%” national vaccination rate.

He said there was a high probability that Cayman would still be lifting the first isolation restrictions next month but it was not set in stone. “We have to make that last check around what the science says about the risk levels,” he said.

However, there are concerns about the ability for the fully vaccinated to become infected and spread the virus, especially the potential impact on children and how vulnerable they are to getting sick, and many people want the reopening to be delayed.

But Bryan said that this was the issue for government, which had to decide the best time to open to prevent the economy collapsing versus the risk to the community, and in particular children, and causing severe outbreaks that would rive the country back into lockdown.

The minister said the focus now was on minimising the risk to protect children as much as possible and that it was not an absolute certainty that quarantine would begin to be lifted on 14 October.