10 new COVID cases include 6 front-line staff

| 21/05/2020 | 216 Comments
Cayman News Service
Foster’s Airport

(CNS) UPDATED: Four workers at Kirk Home Centre have tested positive for COVID-19, as well as one at Foster’s Airport location and one person who works for mobile food vendors, Al La Kebab. These were among the ten new cases reported by health authorities on Thursday out of a batch of 383 results over the last 24 hours. The six front-line workers from Kirk’s, Foster’s and Al La Kebab are all asymptomatic, the companies have reported.

Health authorities have said that all of the additional 28 tests taken at HMP Northward yesterday were negative.

According to Chief Medical Officer Dr John Lee, the new results were all detected through the screening programme, and the ten positives are likely to be community acquired cases. They are all now in isolation and contact tracing in each case has already begun. None of these cases appears to be linked with each other, he noted. 

Laura Silverman, one of the owners of Al La Kebab, said all their staff members have been tested. As well as the one person who was positive, all other staff members with whom they were recently in close contact have also been quarantined.

Cayman News Service
Al La Kebab truck

Both of the Al La Kebab locations, at Marquee Plaza and the Red Bay truck, are open as usual, having been sanitized first thing this morning. As well as regular extensive cleaning, they have conducted additional stringent sanitation and deep-cleaning procedures, Silverman said. The West Bay location was closed in early April.

“We remain in close contact with the Heath Service Authority and are following all of their recommended guidelines,” Silverman said in a statement Thursday afternoon. “We continue to require all of our team members to follow stringent safety protocols. This includes our staff being provided, and being required to use, personal protective equipment. As a result of these and the other measures we are taking, we are confident that we will be able to continue to serve the Cayman community safely.”

Kirk Home Centre GM Brigitte C. Shaughness, said the company will be doing everything possible to assist their positive members of staff during their isolation period.

She said that all members of staff have been required to wear company issued PPE since the store was approved to re-open on 4 May. As well as daily sanitation protocols, a third party janitorial service provides additional cleaning and sanitation every evening.

“This evening our janitorial provider will perform an even more thorough sanitation and disinfection service. Therefore, we will be open to the public on Friday morning. We thank our customers for their support as we all learn to manage this public health crisis and we will continually review our sanitation procedures to ensure the safest possible working and shopping environment,” Shaughness said.

Foster’s, which reported Monday night that two workers from the branch in West Bay, Foster’s Republix, were positive for the disease, said that over 720 of their staff have so far been tested for COVID-19.

A spokesperson for supermarket said that the Airport store “will perform disinfection-level cleaning once the store closes this evening at 7pm”. A third-party janitorial service has been scheduled to come into Foster’s Airport while the store is closed to carry out additional sanitation measures using electrostatic sanitation systems throughout the store.

Anyone who worked closely with the covid-positive staff member in the last three days has “been guided according to contact tracing guidelines set forth by the Cayman Islands Government”, Foster’s said.

“Unfortunately, dealing with positive cases of COVID-19 is the new normal, globally. We’ve worked with the other supermarkets on island to align our protocols to ensure all are responding to positive cases quickly and effectively with safety as our top priority,” said Julian Foster, Marketing Senior Manager.

In accordance with company policy, the affected employees will be taken care of during the quarantine period and upon their return to work, Foster’s said.

Health authorities said the HSA’s polymerase chain reaction (PCR) laboratory is going through a scheduled maintenance day and so will only be reporting clinically urgent specimens.


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Category: Business, Food and Drink, Health, health and safety, Retail

Comments (216)

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  1. Anonymous says:

    You need to read up on the Vit D situation. It’s very interesting. Many people in hot countries do not like going out in the sun if they can help it. I have many friends here, from the region, who can’t understand why people want to spend time out in the heat. Vit D takes time to be absorbed by the skin too, apparently, and many of us are showering and washing it off before it’s been absorbed. Check out Dr John Campbell on YouTube – very interesting and clearly explains things. He’s in the UK but has followers from all over the world – many of them medical people.

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    • Anonymous says:

      On May13, the very first COVID-19 study using pre-infection vitamin D status was released as a preprint.*

      Using data from the electronic health records of patients treated at University of Chicago Medicine, of the 4,314 people who were tested for COVID-19, 499 had their vitamin D status measured in the year before the COVID-19 test, excluding the 14 days prior to the test. The is the very first study that has taken the vitamin D status measurements prior to the COVID-19 test, and the fact that they excluded the 14 days leading up to the test suggests that they almost always obtained pre-infection levels.

      This is critical because getting infected with COVID-19 most likely decreases vitamin D status, and up to now there has been no basis for suggesting that vitamin D status prior to getting infected drives the risk of getting infected or the severity of the ensuing infection.

      This study still has no power to assess cause and effect, but it increases the plausibility that vitamin D status affects infection risk because in order for one thing to cause another, the cause must come first.

      Strangely, the authors grouped in seven patients whose vitamin D status was measured as calcitriol(D1.25), the active hormonal form of vitamin D, with the rest of the patients who had their vitamin D status measured as 25(OH)D, the standard measurement. They should have kept these patients separate.

      Vitamin D status was considered deficient with a 25(OH)D under 20 ng/mL or a calcitriol(D1.25) level under 18 pg/mL.

      With deficient vitamin D status, the risk of a positive COVID-19 test was 19%. With 25(OH)D between 20-29.9, the risk was 13%. For 30-39.9 the risk was 11%. For 40-100, the risk was 12%. These differences did not reach statistical significance even when the deficient group was compared to the others (p=0.11).

      Then they performed a more complex analysis. They defined anyone who was deficient on vitamin D testing and did not have their vitamin D dose increased as “likely deficient” at the time of COVID-19 testing, and defined everyone who was not deficient and did not have their vitamin D dose decreased as “likely sufficient.” Everyone else was considered “uncertain.” When they statistically adjusted for age, gender, race, Hispanic ethnicity, BMI, hypertension, diabetes, chronic pulmonary disease, pulmonary circulation disorders, depression, immunosuppression, and markers of liver disease and chronic kidney disease, those who were “likely deficient” had a 77% higher risk of a positive test than those who were “likely sufficient” (p<0.02).

      That such an enormously complex model is needed to show statistical significance indicates that the association between pre-infection vitamin D status and a positive COVID-19 test is very weak.

      There was no association with whether the most recent dose of vitamin D someone was taking was up to 1000 IU, 2000 IU, or equal to or greater than 3000 IU.

      As more studies continue to roll in, it may be the case that the association becomes more and more robust, but the strength of the association becomes weaker than it looked from the first two papers. In other words, it becomes clearer and clearer that vitamin D is relevant, but less and less likely that it is some kind of magic bullet.

      These data suggest that staying out of the deficient zone of 20 ng/mL reduces infection risk about 42%, but little is done with levels higher than that.

      Maintaining 30-35 ng/mL, because this appears to be the sweet spot for what to maintain during the course of the disease to prevent it from becoming severe or fatal, assuming the associations are cause-and-effect relationships, which has yet to be demonstrated.

      There is no evidence of a U-shaped curve from this study, even though 76 of the patients had 25(OH)D between 40 and 100 ng/mL. However, they do not provide the mean, median, range, or standard deviation within this group, so they give no sense of how the data points are distributed within it. Hopefully, peer reviewers will encourage these authors to include a box-and-whiskers plot with individual data points, which provides the most information about how the data are distributed within each group. Given how little we know about the data distribution in the 40-100 ng/mL range, it was not yet relieved of the concern about a possible U-shaped curve.

      The first pre-infection study makes the association less impressive than it had been in the one other study on infection risk, where the median time of vitamin D testing was 3 days after the COVID-19 test. Nevertheless, it supports current position of maintaining 30-35 ng/mL, which may represent the ideal range for the combined set of concerns of maintaining low infection risk, and restraining an infection, if one develops, from becoming severe or fatal.

      *Footnotes

      * The term “preprint” is often used in these updates. Preprints are studies destined for peer-reviewed journals that have yet to be peer-reviewed. Because COVID-19 is such a rapidly evolving disease and peer-review takes so long, most of the information circulating about the disease comes from preprints.

      And once again, if you have not done it already, read the below article BEFORE you increase your vitamin D dose. Because it may cause more harm and you would know why after reading.

      "If your doctor put you on high doses of vitamin D, then you MUST KNOW WHY your vitamin D is low. If your doctor said the words "secondary hyperparathyroidism" to you and put you on high doses of vitamin D because your calcium is not normal then you need to read this page and watch the video"

      Low Vitamin D Levels, and Low Blood Vitamin D.
      https://www.parathyroid.com/low-vitamin-d.htm

  2. Anonymous says:

    I noticed exactly the same thing. They can’t all be coming from the Brac can they?

  3. Anonymous says:

    Why can’t I go to the beach on the weekend? Why can’t they have closed the beach on Monday and give the Monday people the beach on Sunday? So ridiculous. Or just open everyday cause this whole thing is becoming nonsensical.

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  4. Anonymous says:

    Harvey, do you not live in Cayman? If you are, where have you been for the last 3 weeks. The government IS opening up Cayman in phases spanning two weeks whilst testing to determine how the phase is working. Look if you are going to criticize at least get the facts straight or are facts not important to you … Harvey.

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  5. Anonymous says:

    The ‘mighty US of A’ is relying on the mighty brains of Oxford University (UK) to come up with a vaccine and has pledged US$1bn in its research. Then, once the UK has formulated the vaccine, the ‘mighty US of A’ will try and claim the credit as usual!

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    • Anon says:

      Unfortunately I must say, as a UK expat in Cayman, that the mighty brains of Oxford University have been somewhat scrambled by the test results on 6 rhesus monkeys, all of which tested positive for Covid after receiving their vaccination.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Plane traffic is up considerably today – a plane goes by over my house about every ten minutes all morning since about 7.30am today. WHAT is going on?????

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  7. Anonymous says:

    9:04 am

    I don’t know if the below example would give you some food for thought to why people in different regions who are either native or from different regions get different responses to bacteria, viruses and diseases in general.

    Chef Fatima Ali Has Died of Cancer at Age 29.
    One doctor’s opinion:
    “There is a deeper circadian story here between the lines. It is filled with blue light, nnEMF and a side dish of melanopsin dysfunction. And none of it is said directly in the story but it is blatantly obvious what happened to her from the mitochondriac perspective. One sentence stood out to me why she got this cancer. .
    A Pakistani, with dark skin and a subtropical haplotype trying to be a shift working chef in 5G LA and NYC. She was a cactus in the Tundra and then she said this: ” I worked breakfast, lunch, dinner, catered all these super-VIP holiday parties. I’d get home at 1 a.m then have to wake up at 4 a.m. for a private breakfast party.”
    This is why she got the disease she did. And she died never knowing why it happened……….”

    Haplogroups today are divided into four main ones: European, African, Native American, and Asian.

    Simply put, for generations her ancestors lived in Pakistan creating a haplogroup. Haplogroups pertain to a single line of descent. Each haplogroup originates from, and remains part of, a preceding single haplogroup. It is usually assumed that there is little natural selection for or against a particular haplotype mutation which has survived to the present day.

    I’ll skip extremely technical details and get to the basis for the Doctor’s opinion. You don’t have to agree.

    Her subtropical haplotype required specific climate conditions for her body to remain healthy and survive. Climate, and that includes latitude, longitude, humidity, average temperature, atmospheric pressure, elevation, duration of daily sun exposure etc. in LA, NYC and her native Pakistan are quite different.
    To make things worse she messed up her circadian rhythm by working nights under artificial light in 5G environment.

    Again, based on her haplotype her body, in order to thrive, required at least sufficient for her type (dark skin!!) sun exposure and alignment between her internal clock and the outside world (circadian rhythm).

    That is why a palm tree won’t grow in Arctic or polar bear won’t survive in Florida. The same goes for viruses and bacterias. And people. An Eskimo won’t die right away in London or Tel Aviv, but he would certainly not thrive over there.

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  8. Anonymous says:

    Can you ask if Cayman Islands Government are going to refund a proportion of the work permit fees? Employers pay for employees to work for 12 months but have not had the benefit of those employees working for 2 months…..

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    • Anonymous says:

      no chance…but remember ‘we are caymankind’…..

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    • Anonymous says:

      they won’t or help with the CI$200 repatriation fee collected, they spent it all already

    • Anonymous says:

      That would mean they have to take a pay cut. so no chance in hell. Haha

    • Anonymous says:

      This should go without saying, otherwise it is Wild West robbery. There is no single legal reason to keep the money.
      They already have dormant accounts law to steal people’s money.
      Business owners who paid 12 mo work permit fees must be reimbursed the portion from the moment they were forced to stop working. If I was a business owner I would have requested a refund, in writing of course, and if they refuse, file a claim.

  9. Anonymous says:

    LOL You are stupid if you think that comment was serious.
    Seems like 4 people so far got the joke and 2 did not..
    Even the reply at 10:14 am got it.
    I thought it was hilarious. Seems we’re going to have to start telling people when something is meant to be funny by using the sarcasm emblem = /s
    Dingdongs

  10. Anonymous says:

    Why are there so many planes leaving Grand Cayman this morning??? I thought the airport was closed for everything but inter-island flights and evacuation flights?

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  11. Anonymous says:

    Can’t wait to hear Alden’s update on the latest Oppression Measures.

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  12. Anon says:

    Are these poor folks ok? Are they in the hospital?

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  13. Anonymous says:

    I say we should stay the course. The Faroe Islands with a population of about 43,000 implemented basically the same test, trace and isolate regime that Cayman is using, although they started a few weeks earlier. They have tested 18% of their population, found 181 cases, most of whom were asymptomatic, and have managed to completely eradicate the virus in 12 weeks. They continue to test their front line people and others likely to be exposed and are finding no new cases.

    BTW – the Faroe Islands online presentation of their Covid-19 statistics shows trends over time and is in general far more informative than the information we get. See below.

    https://corona.fo/statistics?_l=en

    Is it not possible for the HSA to borrow some expertise from the Economics and Statistics unit to provide a more useful dashboard than we currently have. If people can see that the plan is working their might be less grumbling.

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  14. Anonymous says:

    Bet they all got it at the beach.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Actually the government’s experts have determined that if more than half of us go to the beach on any one day their is a significant risk. Fortunately they have also determined that if we all carry fishing lines then all of us can go to the beach with no risk – except on Sundays. It is wonderful to have decisions made on the basis of sound science.

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    • Anonymous says:

      i guarantee you they did not.

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  15. Anonymous says:

    It was announced yesterday that the UK has begun a large scale trial of a new highly accurate and simple to administer Covid-19 test that provides results at the test site in 20 minutes.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52762153

    It is the kind of thing that could be used to simply and frequently test all front line workers, to test all employees returning to work, or even to test all passengers before they get on airplanes. That will be a game-changer. When will it be available here in Cayman?

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  16. Anonymous says:

    All people working needed to be tested before any places they work could open , so what am saying I that those that didn’t stop working like fosters, kirks and all others should have been tested first long time ago, I’ve been saying that from the beginning.

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    • Anonymous says:

      The problem is the test result is only good for the minute it is taken, once the person is in contact with anyone else there is a chance of acquiring it.

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  17. Anonymous says:

    This voluntary isolation once confirmed is not working; hence, the numbers keep increasing. Mandatory isolation

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    • Anonymous says:

      No the problem is asymptomatic cases. People don’t know they have it, so they are spreading it unknowingly. This has probably been happening since the start, only now they are screening more people instead of just those with symptoms.

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  18. Harvey says:

    So if you actually test people for Covid, you find out that people really do have it. What a novel approach. So rather than burying your head in the sand and saying we have this solved, when you actually test people you get results you don’t like. Ok, so now what is the end game. Will the government just sit on their hands and wait for the mighty US of A to come up with a vaccine before opening?

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  19. Anonymous says:

    Unless doctors swamped with severe patients and hospitals overwhelmed with critical patients, and morgue ran out of space, the testing only useful for statistics and scientific analysis. May be in a 3-5 years they figure out and come to a definitive conclusion about COVID-19.

    Every sane person understands that wearing a mask in a crowded place is probably a good idea and he does that already. Religiously.

    Every business owner who runs a business that brings lots of people should have installed protective plexiglass shields in March and employees who contact with people already wear protective equipment.

    A Florida doctor wears a protective gown, gloves, real, not paper face mask and a head cap before he walks in an examination room to see a patient.

    If you saw a doctor recently, any doctor, please share your experience. It starts from the entry door to the establishment. Were you freely allowed to get in? If you were stopped at the entry way, by whom, why, and how they were protected?

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  20. Anonymous says:

    More than 1,700 COVID-19 tests were damaged in transit, including 119 from the CenturyLink test site in Fort Myers, Florida.

    The state said there are risks that come with moving tests from testing site to the lab for processing.

    For example, tests that have a loose lid may have some of the sample leak when transported, or a sample that is mishandled could crack or break when being moved from location to lab.

    Until transported, the swabs should be kept cold (refrigerated at 4°C (2-8°C) and transported as soon as possible using frozen cold packs.

    So, storage and transportation are THE crucial elements of testing. Can someone who got tested at mobile site share his experience? Obviously you wouldn’t know the temperature inside a storage container the swab are placed in, but still. Some people are more observant than others.

    For quality check re-testing 1-3 positives and 1-3 negatives at a different lab should be done from time to time.

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    • Anonymous says:

      CNS,
      Has a question about quality control during testing, storage, transportation, and actual processing been asked?

      Do they periodically re-test random people at different labs that use different tests? Doctors Hospital and Health City perhaps?

      The first lab shouldn’t know who will be re-tested. 3 random positive and 3 random negatives should be selected by an independent of all labs official, the individuals contacted and asked to get tested again for quality control.. 1 out of 3 would agree. He should be assigned a number or something like that, so neither lab would know his real name.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Tests are sent to CARPHA for reconfirmation. And Dr. Lee has explained the testing process many times.

  21. Anonymous says:

    The only way to prevent the spread of infection is for everyone to isolate. Since this is neither practical or possible, the world has seen that remote working for those that can work from home is both beneficial and workable, less traffic, less pollution, less commuting and a very real way to slow the spread of infection. Infectious disease is a part of life, but we can slow the spread with a few simple measures that allow economies to continue. Cayman is small and has a large population of the workforce with desk jobs that can work from home. Keep it that way and allow the rest to leave their homes to work.

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  22. Anonymous says:

    So with the lock down, curfews, beach closures etc and COVID-19 is still spreading in the community.
    Personally it goes to show the lock down hasn’t worked and we won’t erase it, so the last two and a bit months have been a total waste of time.

    How many of us have actually had the virus over the last six months and didn’t even know it?

    Maybe Swedens model is the best, everything still open and people abiding the social distancing rules.

    On another note, there have been reports that Vitamin D and heat can supress the virus, not sure if true but if you look at the all the charts the majority of the deaths are in the Northern hemisphere, which could be a bit better for us.

    CNS: I did have a look at this a few days ago here. I think it will an interesting topic to watch as more is learned about this virus.

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    • Anonymous says:

      The fact that Covid-19 is rapidly increasing in Brazil, Mexico and other tropical and semi-tropical countries where sunshine for natural Vitamin D production and heat are present every day, suggests that the idea that Covid-19 is mainly a northern hemisphere (cooler weather) disease is wishful thinking.

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  23. Ivanka says:

    Imagine if we had been sold some dodgy test kits.
    They were bought in such a swift moment then handled in other oppressive countries.

    Some of you may know about the man who sold IED detectors for troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. He made a lot of money pretty quickly.
    It turned out that they were being sold golf ball finders that had no proven proof of detecting IEDs.

    Even after the court cases they were still using them……. rambling on.

    So imagine the scenario if we had a few batches of faulty tests.

    Also, Does the virus, as the man with the kiwi explanation which has been passed on the Trump already I am sure. Does the virus loose its strength?

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  24. Anonymous says:

    someone needs to create a lockdown matrix showing what we still cannot do compared to other similar locations….
    cig is destroying the islands economy by slow death

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  25. Anonymous says:

    Would somebody tell these MLAs and others to stop picking their noses, looking at what was picked then rubbing hands together, rubbing their noses, wiping their mouths, picking their faces, coughing…. All on camera at Press Conferences and in Legislative Assembly. Not a tissue or handkerchief in sight! Has the Premier been tested yet?

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  26. Anonymous says:

    This is not going to end. Let’s just accept it. We can’t live like this. And absolutely say no to spying contact tracers!

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  27. No Longer a PPM supporter says:

    This is beyond ridiculous now. Lock the border down and put us under weeks of curfew to stop it from getting into the community. Now it’s plain to see it’s spreading in the community and what does Gov’t decide do, start opening back businesses to make matters worse. Completely backwards decision making. Test all of Cayman for what, to say yea we got these many positive cases, for those same people the next day to take a trip down to Fosters and choose an infection disease down aisle 9.

    At this point they might as well kill the curfew, admit it’s running rampant, tell us to continue to do our best not to catch it and if we do, say an old Jon Jon prayer for good luck.

    This is equivalent to a wolf circling a lone home in the dark, we can’t see the wolf but no it’s there. Few days pass and we don’t hear or see the wolf and decide it’s safe to leave the front door open and send the kids outside to play each day only. Strangely, each passing day a new child is missing.

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    • Anonymous says:

      I think you miss the point. The virus was always in the community, and always will be. The point of the lockdown was to keep the spread to a minimum and that has worked. Nobody, other than perhaps the government, ever really believed we could eliminate the virus. The point was to prevent 5,000 cases at once and 100 people in the hospital rather than a couple hundred cases and maybe a dozen people in the hospital. We’ve done even better than the latter scenario and there are zero people in the hospital. Yes, when we open up we are going to end up with a couple people in the hospital. Yes, a couple people might die. But we have no choice. If we don’t go back to work the economy will collapse.

      Get used to the new reality.

  28. Anonymous says:

    So whichever co-worker came in close contact with these frontline workers have been isolated as well? What about other co-workers who might have just come in contact with them for 5 minutes or less and have tested negative, would they be tested again after a few days or 14 days to see if they did indeed get infected with that less than 15 minutes of contact, because as of now, only those who have come in contact with a positive case for 15 minutes or more are being isolated. And in general, would the front line workers be tested again at periodic intervals as they come in “contact” with public on a daily basis?

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  29. Anonymous says:

    We worship what we fear. Stop worshipping the government. They are not worthy.

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  30. Anonymous says:

    The four at Kirk home-centre which has been shut since the very beginning just goes to show that the community (look at the employees) are quite clearly not abiding by the social distancing rules. COVID-19 is rife within the community.

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    • Anonymous says:

      They were open 2 weeks previous to this week for deliveries and pick up, so they have been in contact with each other

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    • Anonymous says:

      Cheap Labour have to live in crammed housing. You government turns a blind eye because they would have to raise the minimum wage so these people could afford to live a better life. That and chase down all the handyman Rastas who are BS artists and can’t fix anything properly but are still getting work permits.

  31. Anonymous says:

    I think we are all realizing that there will be continuous low-level community spread in the background. And this will continue, and at a low-level.

    Time to start opening things up a bit more, just like almost everywhere in the US and Canada, and now Europe. I don’t mean opening up the movie theaters or putting on Taste of Cayman… but, how about being allowed meet up with people outside one’s household in groups of 5 or less, open up outdoor restaurants at 25% capacity with 6-feet between tables, disposable drink and tableware (like Bermuda has as of Thursday night) etc,

    And end arbitrary rules that have no effect on virus suppression (…walking on the beach on Sunday, curfews in general).

    We gave it a valiant try to achieve a utopian “bubble”, and in the beginning I thought it was theoretically possible. But it is time for some common sense, and accept some minimal risk (vs zero risk). Cayman’s suppression activities are now an outlier relative to what most other countries are accepting.

    10 weeks at this level is enough. We dont need Alden and Dwayne giving fatherly lectures at Friday’s presser.

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    • Anonymous says:

      I’m not sure I’m ready to open my business. I will have additional expenses and if no one comes, which many have said, that they’re not yet ready. I will incur even more loses. NO THANKS, not yet for me.

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  32. Anonymous says:

    It is interesting to normalize Cayman’s statistics for comparison purposes. Cayman leads the Caribbean in infections per capita at about 1,850 per million persons and is progressing swiftly up the world charts. At this rate Cayman will be the epicenter in the Caribbean

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    • Anonymous says:

      Comparative results are only useful under similar testing conditions and ability – Cayman is discovering cases that are likely going undetected in other countries. You should note that there have been 0 cases lately that are for symptomatic individuals, which is still the main trigger for testing in other countries.

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    • Anonymous says:

      garbage….we are below average in countries with proper testing procedures.

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  33. World's longest commenter says:

    People seem to wonder why so many of the positive cases are asymptomatic or why there is no one in the hospital.

    I keep reading comments suggesting that the virus has somehow mutated here or that our climate somehow affects the severity of the virus.

    The real reason has been repeatedly identified for weeks now: the virus was never as deadly as initially reported. Yes, it can indeed be deadly in some cases for otherwise healthy people. But this is rare.

    I don’t know why people still look at the number of reported cases as though that has any utility. The reality is it’s irrelevant. The headline figure is something like 5,000,000 cases. More realistically the figure should be somewhere between 50 million and 500 million. Where in that range is impossible to pin down at this point. You might be able to start to extrapolate for a country with lots of testing like the US – where it is broadly assumed by the people in charge (i.e. scientists, not politicians) that 5% – 15% of the population have had the virus. That’s somewhere between 15 and 45 million people. Obviously this varies significantly across the individual states.

    Conservatively, if it’s 20M people and 80,000 people have died, that’s a case fatality rate of less than .5%. If 45M had it it’s less than .2%

    We don’t have accurate figures right now, as testing has been mostly limited to symptomatic people, returning residents and front-line workers, rather than a random sample of the population. We also don’t have antibody tests yet. But if 5% of Cayman residents had antibodies it means about 3,000 people have had the virus. If about .1% die it means about 3 people “should” have died. If it’s closer to .2% then it’s 6 people. .5% would be 15.

    Perhaps we only have had about 1,500 cases since patient zero – that should have lead to about 1.5, 3, or 7.5 deaths. We are well within the margin for error here.

    The other thing to remember is that many deaths come from people in long-term care homes, where the most vulnerable people in a population reside. For example, in Canada, 4/5 deaths are connected to long-term care homes, according to the Globe and Mail.

    We have been lucky here in that these facilities seem to not have been affected so far. The reality is that the worst case scenario for deaths here was always probably about 60-300 people, many of whom who would be elderly and with pre-existing conditions. And that is assuming every one of us gets it. All 60,000 people. Even in most of the doomsday predictions (including Dr. Lee’s), they assume 60-70% of the population infected, not 100%. That means we are actually talking 35-180.

    When all of this started they were assuming a 3% death rate rather than .1 – .5%. But it’s clear that this is what we are dealing with now. I hold nothing against the government for taking the actions they did. But that doesn’t mean they must remain stuck on those figures. Politicians have political concerns. It should be Dr. Lee and the other medical advisers coming to the politicians and explaining that things have changed. More data is available and this is what it shows.

    This is what we know. Most people who get this don’t have symptoms. Some do have symptoms and it is similar to a bad cold or flu. Sometimes it’s worse, even for healthy people. Maybe 3 or 4 people out of a hundred will need to go to the hospital. In early days it seemed like 20% of people needed to go to hospital. But the reality is that it was probably more like 20% of symptomatic people did. If you assume that 5x more people are asymptomatic than symptomatic this all starts to make sense.

    If 100 people are sick. 80 might have no symptoms. 20 might. Of those, 20%, or 4, might need to be hospitalized. None of them are likely to die. If you assume 1% case fatality rate then one of them should

    Multiply 100 by 200,000. Then you have the population of New York State. 20M. Say all of them have coronavirus.
    Multiply 80 by 200,000 – 16M asymptomatic
    Multiply 20 by 200,000 – 3.2M symptomatic
    20% of those 3.2M that might need hospitalisation is 640,000
    At .1% case fatality, 20,000 people die.
    At .2% 40,000
    at .5%, 100,000

    As of today, 23,000 people have died. Antibody tests as of the beginning of May showed about 1/5 people have had it in NYC – statewide it was closer to 13%. Of course this might be higher now.

    I realise these estimates and figures may be a little off – the antibody tests might not be great and the methodology might not be great. And of course there are the arguments about whether covid deaths are undercounted because they miss people who die at home or overcounted on the basis that people with severe underlying conditions who might have died imminently anyway were counted as covid deaths. This is beyond the scope of this comment (which has somehow turned into a long essay).

    All of this doesn’t mean social distancing is pointless. Or masks are pointless. They are still important. If 10,000 people got sick here at once and 3% of those people needed hospitalisation, that’s still 300 people. We don’t have that kind of capacity.

    The point is, this is playing out exactly as anyone who has been looking at these figures critically has expected.

    If we maintain social distancing and allow people to return to work, we will continue to have cases and we shouldn’t be afraid of that. If we are careful, it will be manageable for our healthcare system, and we can all hope for a vaccine or effective treatment which will make decisions about what to do about opening the borders easier. But don’t panic if someone gets in your space for a few seconds at the grocery store. You’re probably going to be ok.

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    • Anon says:

      Great post, but you are wasting your time trying to talk facts and logic with many people. With them it is more like obeah. The “big man” will have the witch doctor wave around his “obeah bones virus tests” to dispell the bad spirits. Meanwhile the China virus does what a virus does, and works its way through the population.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Excellent post

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    • Whyfeeduscrap says:

      First of all I do not believe Cayman has has a death from COVID. The cruise passenger that was brought to Health City was admitted for a heart attack and died of heart failure. So he did not die of COVID!! If you were a fatality in a traffic accident and tested positive for COVID would you be considered a COVID death. That is what is happening in the USA now.

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      • Anonymous says:

        I’m pretty sure the man survived his heart attack, but then was discovered to have Covid and then succumbed to that.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Sir/Madam, I’ve read your brief essay twice. As a student of numbers myself, I’ve scrutinized your posting. It’s solid! Thank you.
      I’ve forwarded on to a few friends (I have cited you as: “An Anonymous Poster on CNS”).

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  34. Anonymous says:

    There is a positive relationship between the number of cases and the opening up of the economy. More of the economy is opened as the number of cases per day increases. The economy will be fully opened up if this rate if infection continues.

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  35. Anonymous says:

    Covid isn’t a thing or else we would have dead people on island more than 1.

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  36. Anonymous says:

    So how many days does it take between the time the test is taken and the results are given? 4-6 days? Plus how many days to show positive? All of these cases came under maximum suppression lockdown.

    Open up 100% with social distancing and keep testing and tracing. The case for lockdown is shattered.

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    • Anonymous says:

      I got my results in less than 48 hours.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Yup!

    • Anonymous says:

      The result is given about 4 hours after the test, so the information is fresh and can be acted on immediately. These cases actually all came SINCE maximum lockdown as they are probably only a few days to a couple of weeks since contracting it. This is exactly why we must NOT open up.

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      • Anonymous says:

        Sunday was the last day of maximum suppression so how you can now say all of the infections came after Sunday? More importantly, how do you know when they were infected, it’s active for weeks. Chances are it was before Sunday, especially given the incubation period and the very narrow window of a few days. Your maximum fear narrative doesn’t hold water.

  37. Anonymous says:

    It sounds hideous but I don’t really give a ‘flactuating Phineas’ about this anymore, – each day the updates are rolled out and no plan for an end game. The numbers are higher than during hard curfew as our eradication bubble moves to that of a virus greenhouse with 10 reported cases by community spread. The man in the street continues to been left to fend for himself, he’s accepted it, let him continue. You were gallant Mr Premier & Team but you are now being outpaced, – entering the water with shoes on for the triathlon won’t grace you places at the transition, – time for an alternative strategy, if not, raise the veil, select default and let us carry on.

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    • Anonymous says:

      I think you in particular might need some fresh air.

    • Anonymous says:

      You’re right! Let my people go!

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    • Anonymous says:

      You can’t eliminate the virus. You have flattened the curve, that is the most you can hope for. Keeping the lock down will only prolong the time it takes the virus to run it’s course, by which time you will have destroyed the economy beyond repair. Protect the vulnerable, prepare to treat the worst cases, let those who want to lock themselves away do so and move on.

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  38. Anonymous says:

    I really think people were not staying home as they should have been. No way these are random unrelated cases of community transmission.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Does the pope shxt in the woods?

    • Anonymous says:

      And I really think they were staying home, in overcrowded conditions, in breach of our planning and other laws, and that is how the virus is spreading. We and (more particularly) our minimum wage frontline workers are paying the price of our refusal to enforce our own laws!

    • Bongo says:

      It appears to me that if you want friends over for dominoes then that is ok. That has been my observations on my walks.

    • Harvey says:

      Or maybe not staying at home doesn’t really solve the problem. Remember when we were all afraid to touch anyting and now the CDC says that transmission from surfaces is very limited.

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  39. Anonymous says:

    Yes there are more cases, but all are asymptotic. Suggesting strongly that the virus has indeed mutated.

    As it becomes less lethal, it will increase in transmissions. Because no one (who has not been randomly tested) knows they have the virus. This is not bad news.

    Think of the coronavirus as a kiwi. The fuzzy outside stays the same if the virus is weak or if it is deadly. The inside of our kiwi enemy is where the action happens. Inside our kiwi are instructions. Either deadly or benign. Our, Cayman ‘kiwi” is rotting on the inside. It is not lethal. But the fuzzy outside if fine.

    The outside is not dangerous just glycoproteins. If we are exposed to the outside we should have serological immunity to the fuzzy part, be it lethal or benign. Meaning, we would have antigens to this virus.

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    • Anonymous says:

      “if”

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    • Anonymous says:

      You need to do a youtube video on your theory and send it to Trump.

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    • Anonymous says:

      The virus hasn’t mutated much at all. We are just one of the few places in the world actually finding our asymptomatic positives. Most places would never test these people. We are doing it right. It’s scary to see the numbers go up, but it’s much much scarier to not know. I think this data proves we are doing the right things, and we can continue our slow opening, with continued testing and tracing. Thank God we got those test kits, and thank you Susan for paying for them!!!

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      • Irony says:

        Oh wow. How lucky are we??

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      • Anonymous says:

        Yes increasing testing is the correct thing to do however not quarantining positive persons in govt facilities is a huge mistake. Borders have been closed for over 2 months so none of the recent cases directly relate to persons with travel history. Had positives being quarantined in govt facilities from the outset we would have zero cases now. Are they still sending these positive persons back into their households????

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      • Anonymous says:

        And Dart for flying them in.

      • Anonymous says:

        “The virus hasn’t mutated much at all. We are just one of the few places in the world actually finding our asymptomatic positives. “

        Then why don’t we have higher symptomatic rates – or any! Not a single symptomatic case since April 27. No shortage of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations and deaths in countries that aren’t testing – there is something different here.

    • Anonymous says:

      As a Cayman kiwi I’m not sure how I feel about this analogy

    • Anonymous says:

      Somewhere in your fruity analogies I lost that “fuzzy” feeling🤢

  40. Anonymous says:

    What they are not telling you is that these are not same day results. Running about 3-4 days after the sample is taken. Cleaning these places is just for show.

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  41. Anonymous says:

    So how many in hospital now…..how many died?
    How many unemployed?

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    • Anonymous says:

      One died, the Italian cruise ship passenger. No one is in hospital.

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    • Anonymous says:

      No one is in there because of the measures taken, not because this is all a hoax.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Keep your sarcasm to yourself. What are you trying to imply? The numbers that you already know, but are still sarcastically querying, are because of the measures taken by this Government. Otherwise not one but all numbers could have been high.

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  42. Anonymous says:

    Any more info of the other positives? Are they construction workers? Police? Healthcare ?

    CNS: We may get more info at tomorrow’s press briefing and will have an opportunity to ask questions.

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  43. Anonymous says:

    What I don’t understand if there is a 2.5 exposure. If one person in that al kebab truck has it the entire staff should get it and all rotating employees.

    So either we are all passes the virus and building an immunity that our current test cannot detect.

    Or the virus just does not spread like how we assume.

    We all get the flu every year( well most of us at least) and we know we have the flu.

    Covid can be so mild you don’t even know your sick.

    I assume there’s a massive immunity already on the island.

    The vaccine is silly and more toxic and dangerous than the virus it’s self, which will mutate and be worthless(the vaccine).

    But here lets have Jon Jon tell us more about health which he clearly doesn’t know anything.

    Or The premier whos a lawyer and giving medical advice to the entire community.

    I am about saving lifes and the elderly. Theres a right way to do it and a wrong way.

    Yeah when we can’t afford to pay our bills or get the right type of food (fruits & Veggies).

    I am tired of taking advice from sick people telling me whats healthy!

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    • Anonymous says:

      The amount of misinformation and sheer stupidity in this post is astonishing

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      • Anonymous says:

        Clear to say what exactly?

        Because I am the original poster and the sheer information you have commented would reflect exactly on the level of intelligence(or stupidity) for a comment?

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        • Anonymous says:

          You lost most people’s respect with your comment about vaccines. Vaccines have been game changers for humanity. Ask anyone who may have an elderly relative who knows about polio. It was a devastating disease which has mostly been eradicated due to vaccines. As was polio, until ignorant anti-vaxxers came along.

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          • Anonymous says:

            nobody ignores polio vaccine. It is hepatitis C few hours after birth and triple vaccines in one shot parents concerned with.

        • Anonymous says:

          We do not all get the flu every year. A cold is not the flu. I’m in my 60’s & I’ve probably had the flu 4 times in my life. My children never had the flu growing up here. One has since had it once (living in Europe) & the other & his children have never had it here.

      • Anonymous says:

        You can stay in but you don’t rule the rest of us!

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    • Anonymous says:

      I smell an anti-vaxxer.

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      • Anonymous says:

        I am not anti Vaxxer, I am pro Immunity. Vaccines can be helpful, but how they make the vaccine can be questionable. Do you actually know what else is inside the vaccine other than the weaken virus?

        So were not allowed to get the natural virus and fight it with immunity but a weakened virus with a cocktail of other chemicals and proteins might just be worst than the actual virus.

        Now this information is for entertainment I suggest you do your own research and make the decision to use vaccines or not.

        My issue is being forced to take a vaccine when I choose not too.

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        • Anonymous says:

          Agree. Many parents all over the world are privately buying vaccines that are safer, have less crap in it and space vaccination instead of getting 3 in one and exposing developing brains to aluminum levels that are 1000s times of that permitted in tap water.
          Dr.Sears article on aluminum in childhood vaccines is no longer on internet. He is not an anti-vaxxer, his suggestion was to seek safer vaccines and to space vaccination. No newborn needs vaccination against sexually transmitted diseases.

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        • Anonymous says:

          How does anyone choose to focus on the small levels of other agents included in a vaccine and the very very few side impacts they may have?

          How do people choose not focus on the fact that life expectancy has increased since vaccines have been introduced and continues to? Obesity may be the one ailment that changes that, but it too will be temporary I predict.

          Infant mortality rates have plummeted in developing countries. Japan was 14 in 1970 and 2 in 2017 per 1000 live births.

          I know there are other contributing factors to our increased longevity but how do you look past the facts we live longer and vaccinations have played a positive role?

          As a society we have this desire to be fearful and blame everyone and everything around us- I think this ‘disease’ is causing more harm. Anxiety is increased. Mental health conditions are more prevalent. I am all for having the ‘choice’ as to whether you accept vaccines, but with every choice there are consequences and those are what is missing in our society today.

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        • Anonymous says:

          Where else in your life do you focus on the minutiae and to what end?

      • Anonymous says:

        No vaccine for me for sure!

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      • Anonymous says:

        You should read some info about vaccines, esp flu vaccines before commenting!

      • Anonymous says:

        I smell a lab rat.

    • Anonymous says:

      Try opening your BRAIN as well as your eyes each day!

  44. Anonymous says:

    Lock it down longer.

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    • Anonymous says:

      lock urself down.

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      • Elvis says:

        Just goes to show it’s out there folks, keep it locked down please, don’t let it catch you by mixing with friends you believe don’t have it, you just don’t know. Wear your mask, it’s been proved that mask wearing cuts down your chances of catching it by 75%
        It’s in our stores and supermarkets and junk food trucks.
        Are full where you go folks.

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        • Anonymous says:

          75%? You got that figure from which scientific study?
          What nonsense, only the N95 has a chance of working and even then if you know how to use it and don’t keep using the same mask and I think they saved for actual medical people anyway!

        • Anonymous says:

          “it’s been proved that mask wearing cuts down your chances of catching it by 75%”. Really? Where your source for that it did you just make it up? Because everything I have read – and what Dr Lee has said – is that it doesn’t stop you getting it – it reduces the chances that you will give it to others.

          • Anonymous says:

            It reduces the chance of transmission if you’ve got it and are wearing a mask. If someone else, who doesn’t have it is wearing a mask, the transmission rate goes down even further. It’s actually common sense. Think about it for a minute.

        • Say wha? says:

          What exactly is a “Junk food truck”?

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      • Anonymous says:

        Exactly. Stay home, no one is forcing you out but they sure as hell are forcing us in.

      • Anonymous says:

        Lock your mama down

    • Anonymous says:

      Civil servant by chance?.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Who do you want to stock the shelves at the grocery stores? Or bring your entitled ass food from a restaurant? Just shut up, go back under your covers and leave the people who work to do so.

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    • Anonymous says:

      You are free to lock your self down for life! No one is stopping you.

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    • Anonymous says:

      This must be a government worker who is getting full pay to hang out at home. Get us open again!

    • Anonymous says:

      Are you on welfare or getting a salary? How selfish.

  45. Anonymous says:

    So if they test the front line workers and they get the test back in 24 hours and its negative are they really negative? IF so why do we have people in government isolation facility that have to wait 14 days until the can test to see if they are negative?
    It makes no sense if a grocery store worker is deemed negative strait they way why can’t the same be said for inbound people on the emergency flights?
    Why could they clear ALL the people in the apartment block that where potentially exposed in a few days without the need to wait 14 Day.

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  46. Anonymous says:

    This is normal. The more they test the more positives you get, mostly asymptomatic at this point. Wearing a mask is probably a good thing and most people have been doing it since March.

    There are at least 30 strands and vaccine development is unlikely.

    Sunlight if not kills, than deactivates or weakens C19. Simple gargling and nasal passages flush with a Neti pot would sanitize your upper respiratory system. I personally can’t use Neti pot, so I inhale essential oils (Glass Inhaler Maholda with a Nozzle).

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  47. Anonymous says:

    Oh dear. Stop watching Fox News. Masks do help, as does social distancing & hand washing.
    Even Trump admitted today that he wears a mask. Just not for the cameras.
    If you don’t like our rules feel free to go elsewhere.

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  48. Anonymous says:

    Would it be possible to also identify the nationalities of those infected? Yes, that’s my second request.

    CNS: They do not ask for nationality when they give the test, so no one knows the answer. if they did know the answer, there is no way that they would give it out because it would be fodder for xenophobes and racists.

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    • Anonymous says:

      CNS – the question may be a good one because it may reveal that frontline workers are not catching the virus at work, but in the overcrowded conditions that so many of our imported minimum wage workers are forced to live in. This may be a consequence of our treatment of a large segment of the expatriate workforce. If it is we should know, and feel ashamed.

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    • Anonymous says:

      I doubt that falls under your version of contempt or the relativity of the question, in a country rife with foreign nationals whom always need to be kept aware doing these times and just general curiosity of never providing that demographic in your reporting.

  49. Wakeupeveryone says:

    You’re chasing a run away train, it’s pointless! Why not focus on how many are in hospital sick with this or dead? See, there’s no actual reason for all the drama. Let’s not forgot most countries are now implementing a medication treatment for this, again no reason for the drama.

    Keep the vulnerable safe and get started on the antibody testing, yes there is science the antibodies are protective. Let’s not forget if they weren’t the whole vaccine chase would also be pointless, as it’s based on antibodies….but they’re not nearly as effective/safe as ones own antibodies.

    Finally, what’s the scientific proof for the mask wearing nonsense, there is no scientific study proving it works, it’s like trying to stop mosquitoes going through a chain link fence, it actually makes people more sick!

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    • Anonymous says:

      If vaccines didn’t work we would still have smallpox and polio. If we didn’t have the MRCU there would be outbreaks of Malaria, yellow fever, and Dengue from time to time. You’re right there is no complete solution, but if I do get sick I don’t want to be in a hospital with 1000k other people at the same time. Look what happened in NYC or Italy when the hospitals are overun. We have to slow it the best we can. Everyone is suffering in their own way, but no one is starving here.

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    • Anonymous says:

      The test doesn’t even test for infection, just RNA, no wonder they’re all asymptotic.

      Would be better off working on herd immunity (which may even already exist) and preparing to re-enter the world instead of this nonsense.

      What are the numbers of pneumonia/flu deaths this year(and there’s even a vaccine for that which only even covers 40% effectiveness at best) or better still what are the number of road deaths this year? The government isn’t on a mission to ban car usage?

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      • Anonymous says:

        Are you stupid, if it wasn’t for the fact that you may infect some one and kill them….

        Then please be my guest and go outside and kill your self WTF?

        You think this is AIDS where you put on a condom and go play?

        At least your partner gets to choose to take that risk, COVID has no choice right now cause of people like you who think you can’t DIE if you catch it.

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    • Anonymous says:

      What an ass!

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    • Anonymous says:

      Isn’t the point with masks is that if everyone wears one (correctly) then the spread should be greatly reduced, i.e. they might not stop you getting it but it hopefully stops you giving it. If everyone followed that logic then shouldn’t it reduce the spread?

      I don’t think it’s pointless to test and trace infected people. Surely that means the spread should be reduced. We are seeing more positives as we are testing more. Clearly it’s been in the community for quite some time.

      Not sure why we have been so blessed with seemingly nobody getting too seriously ill. Perhaps that is climate related, perhaps its the fact that we are not densely populated, perhaps it’s the power of prayer, perhaps its all of these. In any event, we should be celebrating the incredibly small number of case and the fact that they do not seem to be life threatening which presumably allows us to reopen the local economy in a way that is managed.

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      • Anonymous says:

        Definitely the power of prayer. Though it is strange that the prayers of people here for people everywhere to overcome Covid only work on the people here…
        Maybe there’s no connection actually.

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    • Anonymous says:

      It is scary how dumb people like this pretend to be smart and authoritative on issues they clearly know absolutely nothing about

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    • Anonymous says:

      Spot on!

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