Colorado predicts 14 storms in 2018 season

| 09/04/2018 | 29 Comments

(CNS): The first official prediction for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season has been published by researchers; weather experts from Colorado State University and the storm seers are calling for 14 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes and three of those are forecast to reach the higher end of the Saffir-Simpson scale. Although he predicts an above average season, the lead author of the early pre-season report, Phil Klotzbach, said it will not be as busy as 2017.

The experts said activity will be about 135% of the average season, compared to 2017 when hurricane activity was about 245% of the average season. So far, the 2018 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1960, 1967, 1996, 2006 and 2011.

“The years 1960, 1967 and 2006 had near-average Atlantic hurricane activity, while 1996 and 2011 were both above-normal hurricane seasons,” said Klotzbach in a release about the report.

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall and the Caribbean is facing a 52% chance of a storm making landfall, some 10% higher than the annual average.

Long-term forecasting for the hurricane season remains an inexact science but the aim of the forecast, which is now in its 35th year, is to give people a best estimate of the likely activity, not an exact measure. But it only takes one storm to make landfall to wreak havoc.

The CSU team will issue updates on the prediction on the eve of the season on 31 May as well as at the beginning of July and August.

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Category: Science & Nature, Weather

Comments (29)

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  1. Diogenes says:

    One side presents trends and data
    The other side says I don’t believe you

    Hmmmm….

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    • Beaumont Zodecloun says:

      Their data and info has consistently been fairly accurate. The thing is — at least for me — it doesn’t do us any good. Not really. We should be ready as we can be for a CAT 5 storm anytime during the season, especially later on — AUG, SEPT, NOV.

      Mostly that info and studies are for us weather-nerds who like sites like CIMSS, NAVY NRL and other geek sites. It’s enjoyable to watch the weather, learn something, and make your own choices independent of the tv weatherpeople. It’s also okay to occasionally admire the violence of nature. I hope to not be killed by a hurricane, and I hope you all aren’t also. Be safe as you can. Prepare, and I don’t mean six tins of corned beef and two gallons of water.

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  2. Anonymous says:

    These guys can’t predict with any reliable degree of accuracy the path of a hurricane after it has formed so to pretend to be able to predict how many will form in the coming season is utter BS. Acedemic exercise to get funding.

    Here is my prediction. 18 tropical systems leading to 14 named storms leading to 10 hurricanes of which and 5 will be major meaning cat 3 or higher. I will put my degree of accuracy against theirs anytime. And I didn’t have to spend 15 years as an understudy to Prof Grey to learn this.

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    • Anonymous says:

      I predict you progressing from an a$$hole to an insufferable a$$hole.

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    • Getsmart says:

      They extrapolate trends and predict tracks with accuracy all of the time, what are you talking about?? Do you understand all the different variables that affect climate and weather PATTERNS?Are you a meteorological expert? Do you even have a tertiary level education?

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      • Anonymous says:

        Do you have the ability to read? The post is about the lack of accuracy that these forecasts have. So maybe ask yourself that last question snowflake.

    • Anonymous says:

      storm control and manipulation. do real research and see yourself. was in the works from 40’s by nazi regime but became a tool the usa has come to relish.

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      • Anonymous says:

        Geo-engineering folks! Been around from the 40’s or 50’s, hence their “ability” to predict the (cough cough) weather.

        #Wake-up

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        • Beaumont Zodecloun says:

          I bet you fell hard for the photo of the interior of the airplane supposedly filled with “barium cannisters”. SMH.

        • Anonymous says:

          Explain how anyone benefits from $250 billion dollars in infrastructure damage? Let me get this straight the US is making hurricanes to hit themselves???
          Y’all are a bunch of clowns

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  3. Anonymous says:

    Not trying to be funny but what the hell does land locked Colorado know about hurricanes? They best stick to snow storms.

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    • pete says:

      not sure what Colorado knows but the university was were Mr William Gray was a professor, who was the top seasonal hurricane forecaster up until his passing in 2016. His pupil carries on the work

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    • Anonymous says:

      You’re right. You are not funny. Not even a little bit. Whilst on the Darwin Award scale, you are right up there.

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    • Getsmart says:

      Huh? Are you saying that only universities that are in the path of hurricanes should study them? You make it sound like Colorado is on a different planet…

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  4. Anonymous says:

    I predict I’m gonna fart in the next 5 – 7 mins.

    – Who

    😉

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  5. Anonymous says:

    Oh stop it, FFS.
    When has any one of these prognostications come to pass?
    Please stick to the facts and genuine news.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Is 2017 a big blank in your memory or something
      or the fact that 4/5 of the average hottest years on record have been in the last 10 years
      Keep denying the results of our damage on the planet, till it is too late
      Cayman is barely above the water now, wait till it warms up 1 or 2 degrees hope you like sleeping in a salt water bath

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      • Anonymous says:

        That’s all great, but these predictions are of no use except to gauge the accuracy of their models. They are not attempting to predict global warming or whether Cayman gets another big one.

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      • Anonymous says:

        There have been some pretty damn cold and crippling winters as of late as well.

        Oh, but I forgot, we’ve conveniently switched from “global warming” to “climate change” a few years ago.

        Never mind.

        The sheeple never fail to disappoint.

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        • Anonymous says:

          It’s true… cold and crippling. I think it dropped to 72F on one occasion. Brrrrr

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        • Anonymous says:

          Climate change has been going on since the Ice Age

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        • Anonymous says:

          The people who believe that pumping out insane quantities of Carbon dioxide since the Industrial Revolution is having some effect on climate are the “sheeple”
          I guess Venus is also a made up planet as well, we can look up into the night sky and see the effect of greenhouse gases and we still deny it

          How many of you calling persons who believe in science sheeple are the ones who blindly believe in religions with no proof and no questions

          I’ll believe in Climate science, You can believe in your sky voodoo zombie jew lord

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