Hurricane seer hints at busy season ahead

| 27/03/2018 | 29 Comments

(CNS): Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach has hinted at a busy hurricane season for the Atlantic this year. Speaking at the US National Hurricane Conference in Florida, less than two weeks before he releases his April forecast, he warned that 2018 is going to be active. “If hurricane season started today, it would probably be pretty active,” Klotzbach said. “But a lot can change between March and the peak of the season. Very small changes in atmospheric patterns can cause big differences in how the oceans respond.”

Given the devastating 2017 hurricane season, the conference has drawn a large audience, according to US reports, and Klotzbach gave his presentation to a full house, but he also made it clear that meteorologists are still struggling with long-term hurricane forecasts.

With just two months before the season begins, Klotzbach warned that early forecasts are notoriously low in confidence, even though those tasked with dealing with disaster management want to know as much as possible as early as possible. Last year Colorado’s early forecast fell well short of the season’s storm total but the weather expert will still be making a stab at a prediction next month as he finalises the data.

This year most forecast models are predicting a neutral climate pattern during the hurricane season, which means warmer temperatures in the Atlantic, fuelling the potentially active season. “Hurricanes live off warm ocean water,” Klotzbach said.

Meanwhile, Cayman’s own weather guru, National Weather Service Director General John Tibbetts, has warned that the impact of climate change in Cayman, which is already leading to a hotter and drier climate as well as rising sea levels, fuels the negative impacts of major storms.

Speaking to Cayman 27 this week, he said, “When you have increasing sea levels and you put things like storm surge and hurricane waves on top of it, then all of a sudden it amplifies the problem.”

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Category: Science & Nature, Weather

Comments (29)

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  1. Derek Haines says:

    I was at the presentation and Dr. Phil did not say there would be a busy season but gave a balanced view of the possibilities that took into account various conditions that can affect the formation of storms including La Nina and El Nino etc.
    Unfortunately some reporters haave gone for the negative side of his talk.
    I suppose doom and gloom make for a better story.
    As for insurance I urge folks to prepare well and that includes insuring your property. Once danger threatens getting cover will be impossible.
    Keep safe
    Derek Haines

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  2. Anonymous says:

    let her blow.. so insurance can release their millions in claims after…..or at least we hope?!??

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  3. Anonymous says:

    Interesting that planning allowed the ‘Cayman Wall’ lots along South Sound road seafront filled so high that the water will have no route to drain back the sea next hurricane. Very well thought out. Maybe raise the road 15 feet as well to ensure all the homes inland flood even higher.

    • Anonymous says:

      Every time I drive down South Sound and see all that building, I think “how soon they forget”. Are the buyers simply people who weren’t here 14 years ago? And are insurers really happy to underwrite the risk?

      When the warning comes, get out of South Sound, folks.

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  4. Anonymous says:

    Of course they predict “a busy season”: they’d be out of a job if they didn’t.

    It’s hard to imagine them saying it’ll be a quiet season, isn’t it, because then they’ll make themselves hostages to fortune and look silly when a big storm strikes. Far better to predict doom and gloom every year, so that if it does they can say “I told you so”, and if it doesn’t, well, everyone’s so relieved that they kinda forget about it until the next year.

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  5. Anonymous says:

    They have successfully predicted 20 of the last 2 bad hurricane seasons.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Whatever happens, hurricane or not, the “climate explainers” will be there to ensure you don’t question the global warming cult.

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  7. Anonymous says:

    Imagine if another cat 5 hit Puerto Rico

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  8. Kim says:

    I will do what I do every season: Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

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  9. Bob says:

    Here we go again…just say every year is a gonna be a busy year from now on I’m sick of these prediction specialist

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  10. Anonymous says:

    This article sponsored by the insurance cartel?

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    • Anonymous says:

      The same “cartel” that paid out over $100bn in catastrophe losses over Harvey, Irma and Maria? The same one where prices decreased every year from 2010 onwards due to lack of catastophes? And had to be increased because of the huge number of catstrophes last year, whilst still having to pay the losses due to stupid driving etc? Do you want solvent insurance companies or bankrupt ones?You almost qualify for the dumbest comment of the year, but it would appear you are too dumb to even do that. When you have no idea what you are talking about, it’s best to say nothing.

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      • Anonymous says:

        Hit the nail on the head with this response
        The one problem with today’s day and age, everyone believes their beliefs are the truth, it isn’t flat-earthers or climate change deniers or the general conspiracy theorists
        If you don’t trust anyone but yourself you are going to be in for an unpleasant existence
        This doesn’t mean that you have to believe everything you are told like you are being spoon fed
        But take a reasonable amount of skepticism into every conversation and learn from each encounter instead of just claiming to know the truth

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      • Anonymous says:

        If it wasn’t still highly profitable, they wouldn’t still be in the business.

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        • Anonymous says:

          Some insurers went under…not here, but on other islands. Many insurers from overseas who insured or reinsured these islands and EC US no longer do…so no, it is not always profitable. Pray tell me, do you know of any business that starts in order to make a loss?

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      • Anonymous says:

        Well when you put it like that, my heart bleeds for these insurance cartels. NOT!! They rip us off for decades between getting hit by a storm.

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      • Well we just dodged a bullet last September.

  11. "Anonymousir" says:

    buckle up folks, going to be a wild ride …

  12. Anonymous says:

    let her rip! nothing could get any worse for poor people on this island????

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  13. Anonymous says:

    Oh stop it with your Climate change religion.
    We all know that religion is a man-made construct to control the masses and those at the top of the cult get the most benefits.
    When Jesus showed up, religious bastards killed Him because they could not bear to hear the truth.
    The last thing we need is another religion. We just need truth.
    So you have become what you hate? How ironic.
    Let’s be honest, if the world has been polluted, it is big industry that has done it.
    Will you please for the love of God just WAKE UP!

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    • Anonymous says:

      oh dear, seems the door to the stupid factory was left open today. Big industry you say? The big industry that makes things for you to use? Or products for other people to make the things you use? That same big industry that if we didn’t buy anything wouldn’t exist? Don’t get me wrong, I like the idea of no more plastic bags, no more mobile phones, maybe even no more electricity generated other than by the sun, sea or wind..but did you even attempt to think about what you wrote or just heard it on some right wing denial TV with no grounding in fact?

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  14. Anonymous says:

    Insurance companies love these long range tea-leaf readers….just in time for policy renewals.

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  15. Anonymous says:

    Zzzzzzzzzz

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