Early predictions call for busy hurricane season

| 04/01/2018 | 39 Comments

(CNS): A number of hurricane forecasters willing to make early and often very speculative predictions all agree that 2018 is likely to be another busy season. Given that the season is some six months away, forecasts made now are unlikely to be precise but even this far out there are several indicators that experts believe point to another potentially busy season. Well-known hurricane expert from Colorado State University, Philip Klotzbach, is hedging his bets with five possible scenarios.

But the most likely general early predictions from Klotzbach point to an above-normal number of storms, based on the patterns for the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and a lack of El Niño. Klotzbach and other experts caution that El Niño conditions are notoriously difficult to predict beyond the winter and spring, so Colorado won’t issue its definitive prediction on the number of storms and hurricanes until April .

Tropical Storm Risk, a UK-based group of climate researchers and insurance risk management experts based at University College London, has also called for an  above-normal Atlantic season this year due in large part to anticipated lower-than-usual wind shear in the tropics. Willing to stick their necks out, the group predicts 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes due to weaker trade wind speed and slightly warmer than average sea surface temperatures fueling storm activity.

Meanwhile, a new team of scientists from the Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) are also calling for an 80% probability of an above normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. This group claims to have developed a brand new forecasting model for hurricanes, based on what they term as a “breakthrough in understanding of the long-range impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity”, according to a release.

The scientists said they have reached a point where they can identify precursors to seasonal Atlantic hurricane as far out as 12 to 24 months by examining sea surface, atmospheric circulation and stratospheric circulation patterns.

After the 2017 hurricane season’s losses from Harvey, Irma and Maria, the insurance market is more keen than ever to secure the season predictions in order to prepare. Whatever the season brings in the end, however, all experts agree that full preparation and building resilience to hurricanes is the best way to protect communities.

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Category: Science & Nature, Weather

Comments (39)

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  1. Anon says:

    Just assume that there will be a hurricane next year with a 30 foot storm surge and a 60 day recovery period. Then plan accordingly. If everyone did this, every year, there would be no loss of life and a quick recovery. If you have a small generator that will power ac and fridge for a small room, and fuel and food and water for a couple of weeks you will be okay. Get an elevation map and decide now where you will go. Make or buy shutters for your home now. It’s not rocket science.

  2. Anonymous says:

    I predict at least 4 events between June and the end of November people will breathlessly flood Fosters and empty the shelves and by Mid Jan/19 they will be feasting on spam, canned raviolis and vienna sausages.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Enough time to hurricane-proof buildings and learn lessons from Irma and Harvey that hit less fortune Caribbean islands.

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  4. West bay Premier says:

    This big increase in global warming and more hurricanes just all means that there will be big increase in your home insurance premiums for 2018 .

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    • Anonymous says:

      I am so glad you are not the real Premier, because you have not got a clue. Property insurance pricing had fallen through the floor over the last 6 years until September last year, reducing 50 to 60% in that time over 2012 prices. That was as a result of less US/Caribbean hurricanes in the period and greater competition amongst insurers. Insurers were struggling to pay normal losses without losing money, never mind the hurricanes. Add in the near enough $100bn in hurricane losses paid and being paid now, and you will understand why prices are going north. They have to increase prices, that is assuming you want solvent insurance companies. You know, the ones who actually pay when something goes wrong. If you find someone offering the old pricing, ask yourself why? Chances are they will be out of business soon or unable to pay losses when the time comes. And come it will.

  5. Ivan says:

    I find it very disheartening how so many can be so insensitive and ignorant to the havoc hurricanes place on people lives. Homes are destroyed, memorabilia’s lost forever, insurances do not cover full lost, mortgages still to be met an most of all, lives lost. It is sad Cayman has changed so much for the worst. I hope we are speared the pain and loss of what other countries went through last year.

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  6. Anonymous says:

    I predict that Donald Trump will insist that NOAA name every hurricane after him until it turns “nasty” and then the name will be changed to Hilary.

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  7. Anonymous says:

    I just wish these people would just give us a few months to relax before they start stressing people out about Hurricane Season
    again. The season just ended for Heaven’s sake, give us a breather!!! Kmt

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    • dan says:

      i totally agree!! 7:44

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    • Anonymous says:

      Pretending something doesn’t exist doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist now is not the time for relaxing and ignoring the danger, now is the time to prepare yourself

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      • Anonymous says:

        the problem with a prediction this early is that it fairly inaccurate. The profession is already having enough difficulty predicting the number of storms. now you want to provide info this early does not help.

  8. Anonymous says:

    Climate change is so bad, we are about to get snowy hurricanes!! Run for your lives!!

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  9. Anonymous says:

    storms will intensify….and more frequent! we are to blame…if you leave man on earth long enough, he will destroy the earth and himself along with it.. .. the saviour jesus christ is coming soon!? believe what you want…but…..

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  10. pete says:

    sheesh i, just barely got over the last one…now peoples anxiety gonna be up now from early for the season

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  11. bob says:

    every year is a busy year…thats the safest thing for them to say

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  12. Anonymous says:

    I predict the rainy season will start in June. That is all.

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  13. Anonymous says:

    I predict 18 tropical Atlantic weather systems, 14 becoming named storms, 8 developing into hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major cat 3 or stronger. Sort of the same prediction I make every year.

    I also reserve the right to revise my prediction midway through the summer to ensure by year end I am within the acceptable statistical variance so as to guarantee my grant money for next year. Now I am officially an academic weather expert ?

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  14. Anonymous says:

    For christ sake, would these people go and find themselves a real job!

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    • Charles Darwin says:

      Utilizing science, highly complex machines and algorithms to predict weather patterns in order to save lives by giving warning to people isn’t a real job? I guess being a doctor isn’t a real job either because doctors use science to save lives also.

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      • Anonymous says:

        Making weather predictions 10 months out isn’t ‘science’ it’s, at best, an educated guess. Secondly no lives have ever been saved by anyone correctly guessing the number of hurricanes next season.

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        • Anonymous says:

          Actually it is science, gathering data to predict things that will happen in the future. Heard of the concept? We learned it in science class.

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          • Anonymous says:

            Well I have gathered data for decades and I predict Christmas day 2020 will be mostly sunny, a few clouds and a refreshing cool breeze, if not here then somewhere in the Caribbean. Now I’m a scientist too do I have to buy my own lab coat or is one provided?

    • anonymous says:

      That is a real job. Like it or not, insurance companies can use their forecast (as one of many inputs) to set the rates they are going to charge.

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    • Anonymous says:

      yeah sure go say that in front of all the family to those dead people from last hurricane season. I’m sure some of those same people said the same about Hurricane Season Forecasters, look how that ended up. Trust me mate your probably gonna be begging to know when ya got a Cat 5 knocking on your door about to wreck your world.

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