Our first OMOV brings some easy and tough battles

| 21/05/2017 | 59 Comments

Cayman News Service 101 writes: This year’s general election has many veterans but also a lot of newcomers encouraged by the new OMOV system. But based on the match-ups in the current constituencies, unfortunately too many of these political competitions are just about decided but for the formal vote on Wednesday. If you have followed the campaigns and various debates, there are some clear likely winners and several interesting battles to observe.

The money in the bank battles:

It was right for opponents to challenge McKeeva Bush out of principle. Any politician that has been around that long must continue to be challenged for our democracy to thrive. But the benefits of this WBW battle ends there because the leader of the opposition will very likely win his seat.

The same might be said for Premier Alden McLaughlin. Both Denniston Tibbetts and Dr Frank are putting up a good fight but their splitting of votes will only be in the premier’s favour.

Moses and Julianna will most likely win their seats. Ezzard faces stiff competition from Mr Chisholm but will likely overcome that. That would be a shame because it would be much better for the country to see some new blood in North Side.

Unfortunately for the prospect of ‘change’, Isaac Rankin will likely suffer a similar fate, purely based on Arden McLean’s deep roots in East End. But this is one of very few dark horse scenarios in this election.

It’s sad to admit, but the not-so-hardest-working man in the LA, Capt Eugene, will likely easily win his seat again with McKeeva’s support.

And finally, the only way for Anthony Eden to not be re-elected is when he retires (sorry Kent).

The matched-to-win situations:

OMOV gave us some constituency match-ups that are just simply too good to be true for some candidates. Joey Hew, Tara Rivers, Bernie Bush, Austin Harris and Chris Saunders are relatively very strong in their election battles and are all likely to succeed. Pearlina McGaw Lumsden might have been a force for Joey to reckon with had she stepped up earlier and not shied away from the public debates. She speaks very well and has a good narrative, but failed to face the music (public) enough.

Bernie will simply ride in on the elder Bush’s coattails, and Tara Rivers should secure a narrow victory over John Jefferson in WBS. Chris Saunders and Austin Harris are the only new independents likely to win their seats decisively in BTW and Prospect respectively.

The real election:

That leaves us with some very competitive scenarios. Ozzie has a tight battle on his hands with Dwayne Seymour. Some polls put Ozzie ahead, while others suggests Seymour will return to the LA. A splitting of votes between Seymour and Robert Bodden might work in Ozzie’s favour, but it’s the on-the-ground and youth-related strengths of Dwayne Seymour in particular that makes this difficult to call.

Some would have us believe that Wayne Panton has little chance in Savannah. But this approach underestimates the former minister of financial services. Alva Suckoo may portray himself as being more connected with the people but Mr Panton is no political slouch, has the party base and this can go either way.

Earlier polls showed Roy McTaggart as being far ahead in GTE, but after Sharon Roulstone arrived publicly and got her campaign underway, she really impressed with how she presented herself and the issues facing the country. With her performance in the debates and her very well articulated videos on various issues, she may have closed the initial gap significantly and this one is definitely the late Wednesday night show.

The most heated battle in the land is still Marco v. Kenneth in GTC. Archer’s support at public meetings is somewhat deceptive: as is usually the case in local campaigns, there are likely some voters who previously supported Archer that simply will not reveal their support for Bryan publicly, leaving their final action for the polling booth. This one is impossible to call.

Mike Adam would be forgiven for quietly thinking that he has already won when he examines the competition around him in GTS. But he must be wary of celebrating too early, because those looking for an alternative to one of the parties might vote against them by giving the vote elsewhere.

Finally, GTW appears to be a head to head between Jonathan Piercy and Ellio Solomon, both very experienced on the political scene. The thoughtful and well spoken Dennie Warren would benefit as a dark horse in this scenario, particularly if voters are looking for a non-party option.

Generally, it doesn’t appear that any party will win a clear majority. The most likely scenario is that both parties (after including Tara as a PPM ally) will split 13 seats with the independents taking the remaining 6 seats. What happens after that is anyone’s guess and we will all find out after a few days of horse trading.

Category: Election Viewpoint

Comments (59)

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  1. Rp says:

    My prediction – ppm will win 4,5 spots, CDP 2,3 and rest independents. Then the question becomes, who is the most manipulative candidate to convince the rest of the herd to follow? Is it Alden, Mac or someone else?

    This election will elect the most manipulative, conniving power hungry politician regardless for who we vote for. It will also show who’s willing to do whatever necessary to follow someone to get a cabinet position.

    It all comes down to greed.

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  2. Anonymous says:

    I do not understand why OMOV wasn’t simply a removal of the multiple votes?
    There would have been no need to create voting districts and some of these dubious candidates would have thought twice about entering a race that was full of stronger options.

    I must have missed something here.

    Anyway, in my opinion, the government has become so massive and unsustainable that I highly doubt anyone will be able to do anything about it.

    If we continue down our current road, Mr. Kenneth Dart will own the entire island(s) because government won’t be able to make payroll even though they squeeze the living crap out of the private sector.

    Current estimates of the number of civil servants are around 6,500.
    Let’s say the average salary is 4k per month, so we need to generate CI$26 million a month just to pay these people.
    This does not include health insurance or pension.

    This will not include the rentals/mortgages on all the government properties and the associated running costs.

    Let’s take a stab at this and say $8 million for all of the above

    We will also need to take into account the current interest payments on the national debt which is estimated to be in the region of 1 billion dollars.

    A debt of 1 billion amortized over 30 years around 5% interest will be another 5 million.

    So, just to keep afloat, we need to bring in almost $40 million per month.

    With a population of supposedly 65,000, every man woman and child is responsible for over $600 of government revenue every month.

    This is a massive amount, seeing that a significant portion of the 65,000 are children, elderly and or sick.

    In a nutshell, this is totally unsustainable which is why the government seems to be operating an open door policy on work permits. I honestly believe that the government is of the opinion that the current policy of flooding the country with all and sundry is the answer to our financial woes.

    My other suspicion is that the pension fund has been raided and if it ever transpired how little money was left, there would be some serious disorder.

    The fact of the matter is that a trivial set of elections will change nothing.

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  3. Anonymous says:

    David Wight has tons more support than 101 gives credit for. Don’t be surprised when he’s the one up there on the podium celebrating giving PPM the majority.

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    • Anonymous says:

      PPM voters cannot let their guard down, get out and vote and make sure that we do not lose the stability we have enjoyed over the past 4 years.

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    • Anonymous says:

      You got that right about David Wight!

      David is the best representative for the people! He is a man of integrity, honesty, caring. humble etc. David Chris and family have always been there for the community. They care for their people irrespective of color, creed or social background. Furthermore he is a God fearing man, who can be trusted to represent and put country before self. Ask anyone and they will tell you how much David and family have done to help his country men.

      Cayman, on voting day remember how much this wonderful person has done for you all and show him your appreciation by giving him your vote! Put your X for George Town West #4 David Wight!

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  4. Anonymous says:

    I don’t care what people say about Austin “changing his ways”
    I think that is garbage
    It take a certain particular type of person to be able to hit a woman, drunk or sober. We do not want or need anyone with that kind of mentality in our government. We should have more respect for the ladies in our country than to put someone like that into government.

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    • IRONY 101 says:

      Why don’t you just ask the known wife beaters in the XXX? There are a few to choose from to get expert advice. Hypocrisy is a real disease in Cayman. I guess you don’t understand the definition of hypocrisy or irony

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    • Anonymous says:

      Drunk, sober, fighting or calm, name one single success Austin Harris has achieved in his life. At least matthew shows he can get stuff done.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Some of what 101 says hear is pretty decent analysis but a couple of things to point out are:

    David Wight and Piercy are likely the two front runners and I think Wight has the edge. Dennie Warren has no shot.

    Saunders is a joke, he should be running in an election about 400 miles East of Cayman because he needs a Patois translator to assist Caymanians to understand what he’s saying.

    Prospect might not have the best options in total but there is a rather large underestimation on how much people hate people that beat women. I think Lucile as a woman running against a woman beater and another guy that thinks women are worth $200 and cab fare is a closer race than you give credit.

    Marco might be in a close race but hopefully there are more people with sense than fools in GT Central, that’s pretty much what it comes down to in that one. If somehow his opponent gets in it will be a disaster for Cayman.

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  6. A. None Musvote says:

    You can be forgiven to think Chris Saunders, Eugene Ebanks, Austin Harris and Bernie Bush and Elio Solomon and Jonathan Piercy are head to head in GTW.

  7. Caymanian 345 says:

    Chris Saunders will win BTW.

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  8. Anonymous says:

    Austin has admitted beating a woman. Now imagine that was your daughter, or sister, or wife. If it was mine, he would not be standing on two feet right now. How can you possibly think of voting for someone who does not respect women. Do you feel comfortable going for someone who would beat your daughter or sister?

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    • S E. Connolly. says:

      So who else should we the voters of Prospect vote for Anonymous? XXXX I nah asking you I telling you. I know this 1st hand, Austin had his and owned up to it, I definitely don’t condone it, but the man has made his peace and I haven’t heard 20 women come out that he beat them too. XXXXX Then that leaves Ms. Lucille? Who doesn’t even know what decade we are in, never fought for women’s issue, name me more than one motion/law she pushed to help women and she’s a founder of PPM? But let me guess, you rather her, because well, because according to her CAL getting planes in 1795. (watch Chamber debate) I think by this time, people have made their mind up who they will vote for.

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      • Anonymous says:

        There are many things that are forgivable, and I believe in forgiveness and second chances. But to me, one of the lowest of lows is someone that would harm a woman or a child. That is one thing I cannot stand for, and I could not live with myself supporting someone that does.

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      • Anonymous says:

        I thought she said the next plane would be coming in 1920,

    • Anonymous says:

      And his main competitor (not it’s not Lucille) was caught doing funny stuff with girls and $200 fees etc. That could be your daughter too correct? Stop attacking characters. The fact is Austin is the better of the two and has real ideas on how to move this country forward.

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    • Anonymous says:

      And Leslie supports local cab drivers and Ms Lulu is half asleep. What’s your point? I vote in prospect and Austin is by far our best option here.

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      • S.E Connolly. says:

        I guess, they want us to all support the one that pays for us to use the Taxi – not today bobo.

  9. Anonymous says:

    David Wight for premier!!

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  10. Anonymous says:

    David Wight will win George Town West. He’s the only honest one running there, two mini McKeevas and a marijuana doctor.

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    • Anonymous says:

      That is funny but let’s be real David is the biggest yes man in Ppm country and is only running because they granted him 10 minutes of fame for his loyalty over the years. He could not speak about a policy issue to save his life and I’m glad for him that he was a no show on the debate because he wouldn’t be able to handle that.

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      • Anonymous says:

        I’d rather a yes man for an honest premier rather than two yes men for a crooked one who gambles tax payers money away, among many other illicit transgressions.

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      • Anonymous says:

        In my book, anyone twisted enough to forget how close McKeeva brought this island to collapse and put him back in power is not someone who I want to give my vote to. Jonathan Piercy is UDP/CDP and supports Mac, and Elio is an ex-UDP/CDP member so you know where his heart truly lies. No mater how knowledgeable they may be with policy, they are supporters of McKeeva and cannot be trusted, just as McKeeva cannot be trusted.

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      • Anonymous says:

        Let me guess, honesty and integrity don’t fall highly on your list of traits you’d like to see in an elected member?

        Very easy for you to criticize while sitting on the sidelines.

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      • Anonymous says:

        You sound like someone who prefers politicians/liars than someone that is straight up. David may not have any initials behind his name, he may not have any big degrees behind his name, but what he does have is integrity and strong family values. If he does not know any specific policy, he has the passion and determination and genuinely cares for Caymanians and the future of Cayman, that he will tirelessly research and work hard to understand what is best for Cayman and Caymanians.

        In a successful government you need people who can crunch the numbers, and draft policy, but you also need those who love the country and will fight for what’s best and fight to make sure Caymanians are taken care of and the island that we all love does not get sold to the highest bidders. Honest people like David are exactly what we need in Government, to make sure that the little guys have a say and are not left behind. He will fight, and we all know that, for what he believes in, and fortunately he is fighting for Caymanians and he will not let us down.

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    • Jah Dread says:

      I hope they keeping control over da medical marihuchi, seems like some people especially @8:21 Am might be taking a whiff.

    • Anonymous says:

      You inquire about the bata days and how kids got gifts before you glorify him

  11. Anonymous says:

    Real talk this! The parties will be delivered a blow this year and I think it’s because of the two leaders

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  12. Anonymous says:

    Spot on, spot on, spot on. Can’t see this panning out any other way.

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  13. Anonymous says:

    Maxine deserves a chance and would be a force in the LA along with Tara and Wilks.

    PPM will easily win 8 seats and possibly 10.

    Cayman stood up to corruption in 2013 and the PPM reputation of a ” waste money” government has been erased with their spectacular fiscal management.

    UDP will be lucky if they win more than 3 seats. The government credit card will remain safe.

    PPM wins the government and continues as the best run Government in the Caribbean.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Ppm easily wins 8 seats??? Back to earth please. They may end up with 5 or 6 if they are lucky and that includes Tara.

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    • Anonymous says:

      What are YOU smoking? Have you not heard what people are saying out there about the incumbents? Sorry but they will get wiped out only Joey, Tara, Alden and the 2 brackers will be standing after that.

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  14. Anonymous says:

    I’m an atheist and even I can’t stomach Chris Saunders constant appeals to Christ’s sake.

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  15. Anonymous says:

    Saunders would be a good representative for Kingston West, not Bodden Town West.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Easy now with this divisive stuff. More than half of this country’s population has heritage linked to Jamaica. His parents decided to school him there in his earlier years. That doesn’t make him any less valuable as a leader in this country and he has showed that he will fight for Caymanians. Stop trying to take us back to the 1970s. SMH

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    • Anonymous says:

      Or Spanish Town West

    • Anonymous says:

      See front page Compass today for a photo of his supporters.

  16. Anonymous says:

    I live in Prospect and have not heard of one person who is voting for Austin. Where do you get your info 101?

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    • Anonymous says:

      He would in any case jump into MacKeeva’s camp in return for promises. A vote for Austin is a vote for CDP.

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      • S E. Connolly. says:

        That’s all PPM can push? ….Austin will jump CDP? Oh Please…..Independents will run this, CDP and PPM will be begging a spot. Don’t get it twisted. Big Mac is now a side order.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Oh oh sounds like campaingn manager getting upset! Aistin gettijg plenty support up there so don’t try paint that picture. Leslie posting so much about that one house he help people with its funny now. Desperation setting in and we will see some ugly campaigning soon I think

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      • Estella C. says:

        Oh it’s FULL BLOWN, people have listened to their candidates in Prospect (debates and meetings) they by now have made their mind up. But the gloves are off, Lulu and ML are coming hard! Some of these politicians wannabe want us to be dependent on them by calling them when we’re in need. I want a person with vision, I don’t need any hand outs, stop trying to win elections with that person house now man, obviously he only did it for the fame and to use it to make people vote for him. Do you know how much the other opponents have done but not have to broadcast it all over. A man with integrity would have never use that house as a vote me card.

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  17. Kent says:

    I would ask 101 if he/she would cast their vote based on who 101 thinks will win or who 101 thinks should win. As the fact that a single vote can make the absolute difference, the reality of voting for the winner rather than the better candidate has real consequences.

    I would highly suggest everyone resist casting their vote based on being in the side of the winner, but rather cast your vote for the best candidate. That is the only thing that will allow our democracy to serve our community properly.

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    • Anonymous says:

      I agree we should vote with our own minds but you have to admit 101 is spot on with this. It just makes sense if you think about it. Sorry if you not expected to do well but Anthony Eden old veteran but you can win next time I believe because you seem like a good man just saying.,

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      • Anonymous says:

        Anthony Eden has the church vote locked and that is the huge difference. The Christian conservative population need him to promote bigotry dressed up as scripture.

        Kent deserves a chance as he is practical and has a commonsense approach to issues but his truth offends those who prefer to live in the darkness.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Dude relax! Polls saying similar things it’s just a fact of life. People will do what they want Wednesday but you can’t stop people doing polls and talking about election results.

  18. Anonymous says:

    Independent 2017-2022

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  19. John says:

    All you said rubbish only one thing true that Wayne panton will lose

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    • Anonymous says:

      If Wane loses, Cayman loses.

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    • Anonymous says:

      Hmmm… not sure where you living bobo but most of what 101 saying looks very very close to reality. big Mac, Alden, Bernie, Tara, Capt Eugene, Moses, Julianna, Arden, Ezzard, Austin, Chris, Anthony Eden, Joey, mike Adam will win their seats, no discussion..

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  20. Anonymous says:

    If BTW fail to grasp the potential of Maxine Bodden Robinson and go for Saunders, then they need to have their heads examined. She has ALL the right qualities. She could be our premier one day if she remains in the political arena for several terms.

    If WBC re-elect Whogene, then they are beyond redemption. I guess it really will show how many voters are willing to sell their sole for a pittance and some roast pig.

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    • Anonymous says:

      I don’t know Chris Saunders but Maxine is smart and tough. She is the pistol some people might have thought Tara was. She would be a fantastic addition to the political arena inside or outside of government. If she doesn’t get through this time I hope she tries again.

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    • Anonymous says:

      I agree she is good but she will likely be a yes woman, sad to say. At least Chris would work hard in the la and stand up to anyone if it’s required

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      • Anonymous says:

        Chris would work hard to bring a style of Politics to the LA that a lot of people have left the neighbood Island to escape.

        He would work hard to fulfill the hidden agenda of being Premier.

        Cayman is a small place. These guys want to claim that they are independent.

        The only independence they all have together is the fact that they really think that they could run this country and that they could lead Cayman to independence.

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